Chiefs-Jets prediction: Will KC’s defense keep this troubling New York streak going?

The Details

Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: MetLife Stadium

TV: NBC

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 8 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

It’s difficult for me to stray too far from the Vegas expectation with this one.

The Chiefs are clearly the better team because of a single position. There might not be a more significant QB discrepancy in an NFL game all season than Patrick Mahomes vs. Zach Wilson, with both players likely swinging their teams’ fortunes for this contest about a touchdown in opposite directions.

It’s a shame, too. When Aaron Rodgers was expected healthy in May, this was projected to be the most competitive game on the Chiefs’ schedule, with KC opening as only a single-point favorite.

The Chiefs’ margin for error is much greater now, as the Jets’ talented defense can only do so much when trying to overcompensate for the team’s lackluster offense.

New York’s defense is good, though. Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are excellent on the back end, while Quinnen Williams has an argument as the NFL’s best defensive interior player not named Aaron Donald or Chris Jones.

The Jets are just limited on the other side. New York must rely on the run game — its run blocking ranks second among all teams thus far, according to Pro Football Focus — while hoping to keep pressure off Wilson, who has not produced with Rodgers out.

All of this — along with recent reports of “implosion” potential because of the team’s struggles lately — makes this a situation that could remind one of what the Chiefs saw against the Chicago Bears last week in a 41-10 laugher.

I don’t think things will go that way, though.

For one, New York is home, meaning it should get that extra boost in a primetime game. There also is likely to be a bit of extra buzz given the circumstances, perhaps elevating this to a big-game feel even in a contest that, on paper, isn’t all that close by NFL standards.

The Jets offense still can’t be expected to do too much. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in regulation in their last eight games, and the Chiefs defense proved last week that they’re more than capable of keeping a bad unit down.

KC’s passing offense could be limited, though, especially working through early growing pains and going against a Jets defense that earned its top-five status a year ago.

Even on a nice weather night, I’m not expecting many points. Forced to choose, I’ll take a Chiefs win but a Jets cover, believing New York’s defense will be able to keep this within one score.

Chiefs 23, Jets 17

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: New York

Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, Bears 21 (Actual: Chiefs 41-10) ❌

2023 record vs. spread: 1-2

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 13-10