Chiefs-Jaguars prediction: Will KC’s can’t-miss advantage be enough vs. Jacksonville?

The Details

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Central on Saturday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TV: NBC

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 8 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

Two weeks ago, I admitted to changing my mind late with the Chiefs-Raiders prediction, and I have similar thoughts for this one as well.

My first opinion following Jacksonville’s win last week over the Los Angeles Chargers was that the Jaguars would be overmatched if they had to play at Arrowhead.

After taking in more info, though, I’m less convinced that’s how this one will play out Saturday afternoon.

All discussions with the Jaguars start with coach Doug Pederson, who is 6-0 against the spread in his career as a playoff underdog, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Not only has Pederson elevated the play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence this season, but he’s also benefited from remaining aggressive with fourth-down calls and game-day decisions, making the Jaguars a dangerous matchup in a one-and-done setting with a coach who’s unafraid to crazy up the game a bit.

Jacksonville’s pass offense showed how dangerous it could be last week while rallying from a 27-0 deficit. Travis Etienne is an elite running back, and the Jaguars can cause problems defensively with their defensive line and pressure looks.

The good news for the Chiefs is they hold a clear, can’t-miss advantage with their passing game. Patrick Mahomes lit up the Jaguars for 331 yards and four touchdowns in KC’s 27-17 home victory on Nov. 13, and since then, Jacksonville’s leaky secondary has remained as the defense’s greatest weakness.

There are some human factors at play here too, though. The Chiefs haven’t always played their best at home this year, and because of the high expectations this season, any early deficit or misfortune could be met with a nervous energy at Arrowhead that tends only to add weight to an already stress-filled setting.

Pederson — rightfully so — will be putting constant pressure on the Chiefs as the coach with less to lose. That could make life uncomfortable for KC’s defense, which likely will have a few fourth-down opportunities to make game-shifting plays.

The weather forecast calls for the possibility of snow but not much wind, and if that holds, it shouldn’t do much to hamper a pair of offenses set up for success in their respective matchups.

Overall, the Chiefs being an 8 1/2-point favorite to advance to the AFC Championship is an ideal situation. And any win at this time of the year counts all the same, whether by 1 or 100.

I see the Chiefs getting pushed. Look for KC to have some nervous moments, even if its offense is able to pull this one out in the end.

Give me the Chiefs for the win but the Jaguars for the cover.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 27

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Jacksonville

Last game prediction: Chiefs 38, Raiders 21 (Actual: Chiefs 31-13) ✔️

This year’s record vs. spread: 9-8