Chiefs-Dolphins prediction: Two historic factors to know when picking KC-Miami

The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Miami Dolphins for a Wild Card game in the NFL playoffs on Saturday.

Here are the details:

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central on Saturday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: Peacock (or KSHB Channel 41 for Kansas City viewers)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)

Line: Chiefs by 4 1/2.

Game prediction

We should start with the weather. It’s going to be frigid. Maybe the Chiefs have an advantage because their players are in the cold more than the Dolphins.

Stylistically, however, wind is more of a factor in football games. And that’s not necessarily good news for these offenses, either: The forecast is for gusts up to 25 mph, and studies have shown 20 mph to be a critical threshold that tends to throw passing games especially off-kilter.

A “run-more-than-normal” game could get a little scary for the Chiefs. Miami’s De’Von Achane is the NFL’s best running back by nearly every statistical measure, and teammate Raheem Mostert is speedy and capable, too. The Dolphins’ offense leads the NFL in explosive play percentage this season, and if KC’s defense has had any weakness this year, it’s been stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 27th in that category, according to FTN Fantasy’s all-encompassing DVOA measure.

The Chiefs, for their part, have done an excellent job limiting big plays all season. And if it is windy enough, that might allow KC to commit more attention to the run game, which hasn’t been a luxury for many defenses when facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the perimeter.

On the other side ... I’m just not sure what you do if you’re the Dolphins. The injuries to their defense have been devastating, and asking players signed off the street to play significant roles is a nightmare, especially when going against a master offensive game-planner like Chiefs coach Andy Reid.

I expect the Chiefs to get players open in the passing game. And while tight end Travis Kelce could have a tough time against cornerback Jalen Ramsey, I think we’ll see other players schemed into openings Saturday. Reid will be doing his best to put the Dolphins’ new players in conflict.

Clevanalytics.com put out a great (and free) NFL postseason guide. Here are two things worth knowing:

• One, non-division rematches in the playoffs (like this one) have gone “over” on the over-under total 55% of the time since 2000. Vegas has this over-under at 44 points, and we might expect the offenses to fare better than that with greater familiarity.

• Also, first-time playoff QBs are 17-36 straight up and 17-35-1 against the spread when facing signal-callers who have previously been in the playoffs. That applies here, with the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa making his first NFL postseason appearance while going against Patrick Mahomes.

My feeling is that both teams’ offenses will have some success, even in difficult weather conditions. For Miami, that will be about big plays, while KC should be able to maintain efficiency while picking on defenders who face a steep learning curve in one week.

In the end, I like the Chiefs for both the win and (slight) cover here. We shouldn’t ignore history when it tells us that Mahomes’ playoff experience will matter in this particular matchup.

Chiefs 27, Dolphins 21

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chargers 20, Chiefs 10 (Actual: Chiefs 13-12) ❌

2023 record vs. spread: 10-7

Last two seasons record vs. spread: 22-15