Chiefs-Broncos prediction: Why Denver’s 3-9 record doesn’t tell the whole story
The Details
Kickoff: 3:05 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
It’s the start of a weird schedule stretch for Kansas City where the question becomes more, “How much should the Chiefs win by?” rather than “Should the Chiefs win this game at all?”
KC is favored by a healthy 9 1/2 points against Denver, yet that might still be the closest spread margin the Chiefs face over the next four weeks while taking on Houston (road), Seattle (home) and Denver (home).
The Broncos being a lousy team (3-9) really comes down to two factors: offense and close-game under-performance.
Trading for quarterback Russell Wilson has been a disaster, as he ranks 35th in Pro Football Focus’ overall QB grades (Quick reminder there are only 32 teams in the NFL). Denver’s run game hasn’t been great either, and that’s been part of the team wasting defensive performances when it probably deserved to win.
Because the Broncos have played a lot of close games. And in a bizarro world where every one-score loss was turned into a win (and vice versa), Denver would actually be ... 7-5, and only a single game behind Kansas City.
What if every one-possession NFL game had the opposite result?
The top SIX seeds in the AFC would all be 8-4 and the Vikings would be 1-11 and eliminated from Playoff contention
It may seem crazy, but we might be just a few bounces of the ball away from this reality
What if… pic.twitter.com/CNzxxQCCtp— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) December 7, 2022
Defensively, Denver thrives by blanketing the opposition in the pass game. Patrick Surtain II deserves to be in the conversation for best cornerback in the NFL, while safeties Justin Simmons and PJ Locke rank as top-four safeties at Pro Football Focus when it comes to coverage grade.
The Broncos are average-ish with run defense, which could mean more if Chiefs guard Joe Thuney returns from a two-week absence with an ankle injury. Still, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid weren’t exaggerating when talking up the Denver defense this week; it’s elite on the back end, and combine that with a strong pass rush, and the Broncos will be a formidable defense to play against at home.
Wilson had a decent game against Baltimore last week, but it appears he’ll be down a weapon after receiver Courtland Sutton missed early-week practices with a hamstring injury. And though KC’s defense struggled at Cincinnati, this seems to be a great bounce-back spot against an offense that has averaged 11 points over its last four games.
I see the Chiefs getting the win despite being slowed enough offensively for the Broncos to keep it close. Give me KC for the win but Denver to cover the 9 1/2 points.
Chiefs 24, Broncos 17
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Denver
Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Bengals 24 (Actual: Bengals 27-24) ❌
This year’s record vs. spread: 6-6
