Chiefs-Broncos prediction: One factor that should influence your thinking on KC-Denver

The Details

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central on Thursday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: Prime Video (and KSHB/Channel 41 in Kansas City)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 10 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

One of the biggest offseason storylines in the NFL was whether new Denver coach Sean Payton could “fix” quarterback Russell Wilson.

Here’s the crazy part: He sort of has ... and the Broncos still have a 1-4 record.

Wilson has been perfectly fine as a starting QB through five games. Basically every individual statistic is better from a year ago, while his all-encompassing DVOA ranking at FTN Fantasy has improved from 41st in 2022 to 14th this season.

All that has helped the Broncos with a massive offensive turnaround in 2023. This is way oversimplified analysis — intentionally not considering the strength of schedule, underlying factors, etc. — but Kansas City has scored 128 points this season, while Denver is right behind at 121.

So why are the Broncos still struggling? Denver’s defense, it turns out, has been way worse than anyone could’ve imagined.

According to the previously mentioned (and well-respected) DVOA, Denver’s run defense ranks 31st. The pass defense, somehow, is worse at 32nd.

Even good news is overshadowed by bad. The Broncos have one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain II, but his production has been entirely negated by the team’s CB2, Damarri Mathis, whom Pro Football Focus grades as the worst starting defensive back in the league.

This would all trend toward a Chiefs blowout in normal circumstances. Add in the juice of a home Thursday Night game and the fact that tight end Travis Kelce is expected to play through his ankle injury, and there should be optimism for Chiefs offensive fireworks.

I’m just not feeling it, though, for one reason: the weather.

KC might get rain on Thursday night, which would obviously affect both teams’ offensive plans.

Perhaps more worrisome, however, is the wind, which is expected between 15-25 mph. Studies are conclusive regarding gusty conditions like this: Passing games, in general, are limited, which tends to decrease overall scoring totals.

A potential run-game vs. run-game battle actually would come at a good time for the Broncos. Their run-blocking hasn’t been great, but they seem to have found something in undrafted rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin, who ranks fourth in Pro Football Focus’ “run grade” while only starting to get more opportunities. Javonte Williams is also expected back from a quad injury, though, truth be told, he’d be better suited as a rotation back while the Broncos figure out more of what they have in McLaughlin.

In any case, the weather is steering me away from how I might’ve predicted this game otherwise.

The Chiefs’ offense, with a full passing arsenal, is good enough to make this game a laugher. And maybe the skies will clear and the wind will die down for a while, allowing quarterback Patrick Mahomes to dice the worst defense he’ll face this season.

That would be banking on a weather pattern that seems unlikely, though. Throw in some moisture — and especially some wind — and it seems probable that both teams will be forced into an offensive game that veers slightly from their preferred attack.

I think that’ll hurt the Chiefs more than their AFC West rivals. Give me KC for the win, but Denver to cover the 10 1/2 points as the Chiefs’ offensive total goes lower than expected.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 17

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Denver

Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Vikings 24 (Actual: Chiefs 27-20) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 3-2

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 15-10