Prediction time: The KC Chiefs are better. But their record? Maybe not. Here’s why

The Chiefs have endured an offseason of change — a product of their own decisions — and while Tyreek Hill is the headliner there, the comment rings true elsewhere. The defense and special teams actually have more snaps to replace than the offense.

But through the turnover, have the Chiefs actually gotten better?

We’ll find out quickly. And often.

The first eight opponents on the their schedule had winning records last season, and the slate doesn’t exactly lighten up over the back half. Put together, the Chiefs have by far the toughest schedule in the NFL this season.

Plausibly, they might be a better team than they were a year ago but fail to finish with a better record (12-5) than that team did — and, spoiler alert, I might be foreshadowing something here.

Forget the whole picture, though. One game at a time, right?

In that fashion ...

Week 1: at Arizona

A bad break in the opener. And a good break. The Cardinals typically play better in the first half of the season than they do in the second, so playing them out the gate isn’t ideal. On the other hand, All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins is suspended the initial six games of the season, so you won’t hear the Chiefs complain about catching them early. The Cardinals, particularly after losing Chandler Jones, are not the contender some make them out to be, and Andy Reid hasn’t lost a season opener since that dud to Tennessee in 2014.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 24 (1-0)

Week 2: vs. L.A. Chargers (Thursday night)

I’ll be the sucker who falls for the Chargers this year. I’m fully on board Justin Herbert’s hype train. At the end of this year, we might be talking about him as one of the five best quarterbacks in the game. The Chargers replenished their defense, too, though it remains to be seen if their most expensive addition, cornerback J.C. Jackson, will be available by Week 2 after his ankle surgery last month. The Chargers won this game last year (a September meeting in Kansas City), but Arrowhead Stadium in prime-time might be the least friendly environment in football. That gives the Chiefs the edge.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24 (2-0)

Week 3: at Indianapolis

If the Colts had a halfway decent quarterback last season, they would’ve been in the playoffs and perhaps positioned to make some noise. Well, they do have a halfway decent quarterback now. Matt Ryan has replaced Carson Wentz, and even if he’s not what he once was, Ryan is a sizable improvement. The Chiefs are an early 2.5-point favorite here, but I’ve got this as their first slip.

Prediction: Colts 30, Chiefs 27 (2-1)

Week 4: at Tampa Bay (Sunday night)

Just wait for it. We’ll ask about the opportunity to avenge the 2020 Super Bowl loss in Tampa Bay, and we’ll be told we are making too much of it. We aren’t. Patrick Mahomes has made it a career staple to win the revenge games. He has the opportunity this year to play the teams that have knocked the Chiefs from the playoffs the past two years. It’s the first game the Chiefs are underdogs, albeit slightly, but I won’t pick against Mahomes in the setting that will draw out his very best.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 20 (3-1)

Week 5: vs. Las Vegas (Monday night)

The Raiders were outscored by 65 points a year ago and still somehow won 10 games, which doesn’t make any sense. They’re in line for regression, even with the addition of Davante Adams. The secondary is a major concern, and while Derek Carr might not be the problem, he’s not the solution, either. He’s the worst quarterback in the division.

Prediction: Chiefs 41, Raiders 23 (4-1)

Week 6: vs. Bills

The Bills have pushed all their chips into 2022, future salary cap concerns be damned. But this column is just about this year’s rosters, and there’s not a more complete one in football. This is an AFC Championship Game preview, and the result could determine exactly how cold it will be when that January game is played.

Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 24 (4-2)

Week 7: at San Francisco

I’m not buying Trey Lance stock, but the 49ers have one of the few NFL rosters (the only roster?) good enough to win games even without an elite quarterback. This is a tougher game than many anticipate.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Chiefs 21 (4-3)

Week 9: vs. Tennessee (Sunday night)

Man, I’ve not seen a Mahomes-led Chiefs team play worse than that game in Nashville a year ago. This one’s in Kansas City, but more important is that Andy Reid is something like 350-1 when coming off a bye in the past 10 seasons.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Titans 17 (5-3)

Week 10: vs. Jacksonville

Finally a team on the schedule that — how can I put this? — kind of stinks. Trevor Lawrence should be better in Year Two than he was as rookie, and goodness, new head coach Doug Pederson is a massive upgrade over the wreck that was Urban Meyer. But the Jaguars are the first team on this slate that we can definitively say will not make the playoffs. All the makings for a letdown, right? Not quite.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 17 (6-3)

Week 11: at L.A. Chargers

See above. I’m the idiot falling for the Chargers hype this year. For all of the intriguing matchups on the schedule — including the two that follow this one — this trip to Los Angeles represents the game I’m most looking forward to watching. Herbert-Mahomes has never disappointed. The game in L.A. a year ago would’ve been the best of the year, if not for that whole 13 seconds thing against the Bills.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 (6-4)

Week 12: vs. L.A. Rams

As if the AFC West slate wasn’t difficult enough, the Chiefs get to match up with the NFC division that includes both participants in last year’s NFC Championship Game, including the Super Bowl-winning Rams. The Rams will be good again this year, but they did lose some key pieces after that championship run. I’ll stick with the home team.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Rams 28 (7-4)

Week 13: at Cincinnati

Oh, boy. The game that gave the Chiefs fits — twice! — last year. Just when it seemed the Chiefs had figured everything out offensively, they laid a second-half egg against the Bengals not only in the regular season but again, more memorably, in the postseason. It was a bit surprising this game didn’t earn Sunday or Monday night status, but there will be plenty of eyes on it anyway. For what it’s worth, the early line in Vegas has this game listed as a pick ‘em, which feels about right because I went back and forth on this one more than any other. Ultimately, if I used revenge as the excuse earlier, I can’t go against it now.

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bengals 27 (8-4)

Week 14: at Denver (Sunday night)

The division is too good for the Chiefs to coast through with a mark of 6-0 or 5-1 this year. And if I’m going to pick someone other than the Chargers to bump them once, this is the game. Is it just me, or is every trip to Denver a prime-time or stand-alone game?

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21 (8-5)

Week 15: at Houston

The Texans set themselves up for the future with a massive return in the Deshaun Watson trade, but that won’t do any good for Week 15 this year.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 17 (9-5)

Week 16: vs. Seattle

Hey, it’s almost like a second bye week. This should put that “any given Sunday” mantra to the test.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Seahawks 13 (10-5)

Week 17: vs. Denver

It’s really hard to envision the Chiefs being swept by the same opponent in the same year (even you count the Bengals a year ago in the regular season plus postseason), and I’ve already picked the Broncos to win one. I know, independent spins and all. But while the Broncos are very obviously improved with Russell Wilson, I don’t think it’s quite the leap it’s made out to be. The Chiefs are still the best team in the division. This might be a game that clinches the AFC West with a week to play.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20 (11-5)

Week 18: at Las Vegas

This is actually the hardest game to predict because we have no idea what, if anything, will be at stake. I envision the Raiders being out of the playoff race by the finale, leaving the Chiefs as the team with a lot more to play for. That tends to matter.

Prediction: Chiefs 33, Raiders 20 (12-5)