2023 Fantasy Football: Should Tony Pollard be the No. 2 back selected in drafts?

Dalton Del Don

Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don analyzes some key figures as we move through 2023 draft season.

Case for Tony Pollard as fantasy's RB2

Christian McCaffrey deserves the top spot among fantasy RBs given his usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (even with the Elijah Mitchell factor). But there’s a big tier after CMC consisting of nine running backs all with similar arguments (and questions) to be ranked next. Tony Pollard is my No. 2 fantasy back (his expert consensus rank is the RB7), especially now with Ezekiel Elliottin New England. Pollard averaged 19.3 PPR points when given 10 carries last season, which would have been good for fantasy’s RB3.

He finished as the RB8 despite seeing fewer than 50% of the snaps in eight games and totaling a modest 232 touches — Dallas running backs combined for 524, and Elliott is gone. Pollard won’t become a true workhorse getting 325+ touches, but he’s averaged 102.3 yards from scrimmage and 0.91 touchdowns during games with a snap rate of more than 50% throughout his career; now, he’s clearly set up for by far the most opportunities of his career.

Meanwhile, there are reasons for concern with the other eight similarly ranked running backs:

  • Jonathan Taylor has Anthony Richardson concerns (the mobile QB should help Taylor’s YPC but could steal goal-line work and limit targets in an offense that could be bottom-five). He has also asked for a trade and seems mired in an ugly contract situation.

  • Bijan Robinson is a rookie on a low-volume offense with a former third-round pick starting at QB.

  • Austin Ekeler is 28 years old and his fantasy value has been greatly boosted by 25 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons despite never reaching 210 carries.

  • Saquon Barkley may have signed a new deal but looks increasingly unlikely to ever return to the player he was when entering the league.

  • Nick Chubb could continue to cede passing-down work and suffered a dramatic drop in production after Deshaun Watson took over.

  • Josh Jacobs is a holdout threat, could easily be playing with one of the worst QB situations and has history against him after just leading the league in touches.

  • Derrick Henry is 29 years old and has been worked and worked and worked ...

  • I’m all in onBreece Hall, but he’s returning from a torn ACL and the Jets signed Dalvin Cook.

Pollard in Round Three was always too good to be true, but he’s still an absolute smash in the late second.

Bonus: You might want to avoid Rachaad White at ADP

White is seeing plenty of fantasy love as the Buccaneers’ likely new workhorse thanks to little RB competition in Tampa Bay. But expectations should be held in check (and fantasy picks around his 81.1 Yahoo ADP should be used elsewhere, like on our guy Rashaad Penny instead). White is a late third-round pick who’s never reached 200 carries dating back to college and was one of the worst runners in the league as a rookie, finishing dead last in rush yards over expectations. He was also outplayed by dusty Leonard Fournettein the passing game and benefitted greatly from Tom Brady checkdowns.

The Buccaneers are going from providing the most catchable targets in the league last season to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask). Mayfield also targets running backs, but his EPA/dropback (-0.12) and CPOE (-7%) were both worse than Zach Wilson last season; a downgrade doesn’t get any more dramatic than going from the GOAT to Mayfield. Tampa Bay scored the second-fewest points in the NFC last season and is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023.

White’s sell-high window in dynasty leagues is right now.

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