California gasoline prices keep soaring. Is there any end in sight?

A gallon of regular gasoline in California Wednesday averaged 53 cents higher than a month ago. Will it go much higher?

It’s tough to predict, but the potential is there because a big driver of the price spike is international tension.

The Russia-Ukraine war and Iran’s threats to Israel are adding a new dose of uncertainty to an already volatile mix of reasons prices go up as summer approaches.

“Ukraine attacked Russia’s supplies, and Iran has become a major threat in the last two weeks,” said Sanjay Varshney, professor of finance at California State University, Sacramento.

An Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria April 1 killed several Iranian military officials. U.S. officials are expecting Iran to retaliate. The tension in the Middle East is among the reasons U.S. oil prices are up about 20% this year, ranging recently from roughly $85 to $90 a barrel.

A gallon of regular gasoline in California Wednesday averaged $5.41, according to AAA. That figure was the highest in the country, topping runnerup Hawaii by 69 cents a gallon. The national average Wednesday was $3.63.

California’s average was 53 cents a gallon more than a month ago and 21 cents above the cost a week ago.

Local prices included:

▪ Sacramento, the average was $5.53, up from $4.86 a month ago.

▪ Fresno, $5.41 Wednesday, $4.77 a month ago.

▪ Modesto, $5.41 Wednesday, $4.70 a month ago.

▪ Merced, $5.44 Wednesday, $4.82 a month ago.

▪ San Luis Obispo area, $5.55 Wednesday, $5.06 a month ago.

Prices “should normally go down but we see geopolitical risks going up at times with potential involvement of other countries in the Middle East and Ukraine regional conflicts. This gets reflected in terms of higher prices at the gas pump,” said Gokce Soydemir, Foster Farms endowed professor of business economics at California State University, Stanislaus.

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While the average California price is still well below the June 2022 record of $6.44, and shows no immediate signs of getting anywhere near that, several elements are still in play that could keep prices at current levels, if not higher.

Doug Shupe, Autombile Club of Southern California spokesman, cited “planned and unplanned refinery maintenance has caused supply issues” affecting prices.

Imported gasoline has been ordered and should arrive later in April, according to the Oil Price Information Service, which specializes in price and supply trend data.

Shupe noted there is also planned maintenance at a refinery in Washington state that supplies Southern California and could last several weeks.

Any refinery interruption has an important effect on supply.

California requires that drivers use a special blend of gasoline aimed at reducing emissions from motor vehicles. That means the state’s refineries produce cleaner fuel.

“Refineries in the state often operate at or near maximum capacity because of the high demand for those petroleum products and the lack of interstate pipelines that can deliver those cleaner fuels into the state,” said an analysis from the federal Energy Information Administration.

When a refinery has to shut down, the lack of supply from interstate pipelines “means replacement supplies of (California gasoline) come in by marine tanker from out-of-state U.S. refineries or from other countries. It can take several weeks to find and bring replacement motor gasoline from overseas that meets California’s unique specifications.”

So does increased demand, as people tend to drive more in warm weather months, and the annual switch to summer blend gasoline, which costs more to produce than the winter mix.

But it’s the international issues that threaten to keep prices high or send them higher.

“The Iran threat wasn’t on the table a few weeks ago,” said Varshney. Regarding prices, he said, “Things could be more severe than we thought.”