California consumers are angry over high prices. How Republicans will take advantage

Prices are up 17.6% since Joe Biden became president, according to the Consumer Price Index. It’s a number Republicans love to cite.

It’s the biggest increase during the first 34 months of a presidency since Jimmy Carter endured double-digit inflation from 1977 to 1979. It didn’t end well for him. Inflation is often cited as one reason Carter lost his bid for a second term in 1980.

California Republicans see voters’ ongoing anger over stubbornly high prices as a strong campaign weapon to use against Biden and Democrats.

Statewide polling shows the president gets low marks for his handling of inflation, and Republicans are pouncing.

“Inflation continues to be a decisive issue for California voters,” said Jessica Millan Patterson, California Republican chairwoman, told The Bee.

“As Californians continue to pay too much on everything from gas to groceries and housing, voters will be eager to support candidates offering real solutions to fight inflation in 2024,” she said.

Democrats counter that price increases have slowed dramatically since their peak last June, and the economy continues to grow at a healthy clip.

“We’re seeing strong progress on inflation,” said Joelle Gamble, deputy director of the White House National Economic Council.

She’s correct, as the rate of inflation has eased considerably this year, and economic indicators are strong. But prices are still at much higher levels than they were when Biden took office in January 2021.

A new Consumer Price Index report is due to be released Tuesday.

Biden and inflation

Prices were up 6% during Donald Trump’s first 34 months. Other increases during the same period: Barack Obama, 7.2%; George W. Bush, 6.5%, Bill Clinton, 7.8%, George H. W. Bush, 13.5%.

During Ronald Reagan’s first 34 months, a time when officials were aggressively tackling double digit inflation, prices rose 16%. Under Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s, prices went up 28.5%.

The person in charge of running the country, as well as his party, usually gets the blame when people think stuff costs too much.

How much, if at all, Biden and Democrats are responsible for the higher prices is a matter of debate, though the burst of spending to help the economy recover during the COVID pandemic is often cited as one reason for the spiraling prices.

And though the COVID-related recovery spending began while Trump was president — he signed a $2.2 trillion economic relief package in March 2020 — prices began to climb more aggressively once Biden took office. The increases were driven by several factors, including consumers with more money to spend, thanks partly to stimulus cash, as well as supply chain disruptions and higher energy prices.

A Berkeley-IGS California poll October 24-30 of 6,342 registered voters showed 61% disapproved of Biden’s handling of inflation, while 31% approved. Margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The survey found that while Biden appears to be in little danger of losing the state next year, he’s losing support among Democrats who were his most ardent supporters “with regard to his handling of major domestic issues like inflation and immigration,” as well as the Israel-Hamas war, a poll analysis said.

Voter frustration

The doubts about Biden’s performance appear to be influencing some voters, the poll found, especially as support for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump remains strong among his backers. Biden won California by 29 points in 2020. In the latest Berkeley poll, he was up by 15.

“Inflation is very real as an issue because people feel higher prices in their daily lives, whatever the actual rate is,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis firm.

Democrats say they’re not overly worried. The rate of inflation has dropped dramatically this year, and the steep rise didn’t seem to hurt the party last year.

“How did things go in the midterms?” asked Steve Maviglio, a Sacramento-based Democratic consultant.

In June 2022 the annual rate of inflation peaked at 9.1%, its highest level in 41 years. But Democrats did better than expected in November’s state elections, maintaining control of the U.S. Senate and nearly winning control of the House.

A Republican issue?

Kondik agreed that Democrats did well, but still finds “it is absolutely a real issue for the opposition to raise” and Republicans are.

At the top of his X site recently, Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Oroville, cited a CBS News analysis from this week that showed “the typical American household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain the same standard of living they enjoyed in January of 2021,” when Biden took office.

The California Republican Party on its blog highlights the Berkeley-IGS poll findings. It plans to keep up the pressure on Democrats.

“The CAGOP and our candidates will deliver the message that Republicans stand ready to help fix our broken economy and ease the financial burdens that too many are facing,” Patterson said.

In Washington, the refrain is the same.

“Working Americans are growing more frustrated with an expensive new normal,” said Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. He cited several examples, notably increases in gasoline prices.

“Prices are astronomically high under Biden, and Americans know it — because they see it every single day,” said Jake Schneider, the Republican National Committee rapid response team director.

The administration’s Gamble said the White House understands the frustration.

“I think people have gone through a lot, to be honest. There’s the pandemic. There’s the war in Ukraine, all that price uncertainty and price jumps that came with those,” she said.

People will keep seeing prices stabilize, she said, but it takes time. “It’s hard to go from individual shocks to what might happen to the macroeconomy. I do think the U.S. economy has a lot of tailwinds behind it,” Gamble said.

The latest UCLA Anderson forecast, released Wednesday, predicted the cost of living in California will go up 3.1% next year and 2.8% in 2025, about the same as the anticipated rates for the nation. California prices were up 4.1% in 2021, 7.3% last year and are projected to rise 4.2% this year.

In 2022, the national Consumer Price Index was up 6.5%. In the last 12 months, though, the increases have moderated, and prices are up an average of 3.2%.

Though the pace of the increases has slowed this year, the cumulative effect of higher prices lingers.

The Berkeley poll asked voters about Biden’s handling of seven different issues. He got his worst marks for his handling of inflation , worse than disapproval numbers for immigration, crime, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, relations with China and the war in Ukraine.

For Republicans, such findings allow their campaign effort comes down to a simple sentence. As McConnell put it, “Prices are stubbornly high.”