Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets prediction and keys to AFC East matchup

ORCHARD PARK - Hey everyone, welcome back to the drought years.

OK, that’s taking it a bit too far, but thanks to three inexcusable losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos, the Buffalo Bills are now 5-5, buried in the AFC playoff chase, and on the brink of facing a December of meaningless football.

The stark reality that they face, the same one they were confronted with during so many of those 17 seasons from 2000-16 when they failed to make the playoffs, is this: Barring an unforeseen reversal of fortune which would encompass both a remarkable run through a brutally difficult closing schedule plus several other AFC teams collapsing, the Bills will not be making a fifth straight appearance in the playoffs in 2023.

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It’s stunning when you consider how high the expectations were for the Bills entering the year on the heels of three consecutive AFC East division titles which had catapulted them into the conversation as a legitimate Super Bowl contender for the first time since the early 1990s.

Is the season over? No. Do you believe in miracles? Al Michaels will tell you all about Team USA at the 1980 Olympics. But given the way the Bills have played over the past six weeks, it’s awfully tough to envision them suddenly flipping a switch starting Sunday against the pesky New York Jets, a team that has given the Bills fits lately, and turn this circling-down-the-drain season around.

“Our backs are against the wall,” Josh Allen said. “The clock’s ticking on what we can do this season and it starts this Sunday to try to turn this thing around. It’s no secret in terms of how many wins you probably need to get to the playoffs and we don’t have much more wiggle room. So we understand that.”

Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Robert Saleh came off as a bit pompous back in mid-October, right after his Jets upset the Eagles, but the New York head coach wasn’t entirely wrong when he said, “Through these first six weeks we've played a gauntlet of quarterbacks. I know we haven't gotten all wins, but we've embarrassed all of them.” Embarrassed was too strong but the Jets defense, which is without question one of the best in the NFL, made mere mortals out of Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, forcing nine turnovers and recording eight sacks.

Now they get a second crack at Allen who will be getting his play calls from new coordinator Joe Brady, certainly not a defense Brady would have chosen to make his debut. The Jets have forced opponents into three-and-outs on 30% of their drives this season, and they’ve held opposing QBs to a cumulative 76.2 passer rating which is fourth-best in the league behind the Ravens (72.1), Browns (72.7) and Saints (75.1). New York has not allowed a 300-yard passing performance in 27 straight games.

Allen has always struggled against Gang Green, never more so than in the opener when he personally hand-delivered the Jets’ 22-16 victory by throwing three picks, losing a fumble, and absorbing five sacks. That night Ken Dorsey had no answers for Saleh’s defense, so now Brady will take a shot and it will be interesting to see how he goes about doing that.

Will he put Allen back under center more often, which would naturally lead to more use of play-action? Will Brady give Allen the OK to use his legs in the right situations rather than tying him to the pocket? Will he use more motion and shifting as a way to be a little less predictable? Any or all of those things should be tried, especially against a division opponent who knows the Bills’ offense so well and has enjoyed so much success against it.

Of course, what would help Allen the most is for him to start making better decisions and being more responsible with the ball, for someone besides Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid to do something in the pass game, and then for Buffalo to get RB James Cook rolling. As good as the Jets are, they haven’t been great against the run as they allow 4.3 yards per attempt which is tied for 20th in the league. If the Bills can run it, that would ease the burden on Allen and the passing game.

Buffalo Bills on defense

As great as the Jets are on defense, they are a 180-degree opposite abysmal on offense. There’s no other accurate word to describe it. They have now gone 11 quarters and 36 offensive possessions without scoring a touchdown. For the season they have scored eight touchdowns on their 109 drives. Eight! Their average length of drive this year has been 5.2 plays abd 22.5 yards, their TD scoring percentage is 7.3 while their turnover percentage is 11.9.

If the Bills thought they had enough problems to fire their offensive coordinator, imagine what Jets fans are thinking about Nathaniel Hackett, who once flopped as the OC for Buffalo under Doug Marrone. With the Hackett/Zach Wilson tandem at the helm (granted, it was supposed to be Aaron Rodgers/Hackett), the Jets rank 30th in points per game (16.0), 29th in yards (283.1), 30th in passing yards (179.2), 32nd in third-down percentage (25.0%), and 32nd in red zone TD percentage (22.7%). It’s staggering how bad they are.

Obviously, things went off the rails four plays into the season against the Bills when Rodgers blew out his Achilles, so the Jets had to turn to Wilson, the second overall pick of the 2021 draft who was supposed to be their franchise QB and proved quite definitively that he is not. Somehow, New York beat the Bills that night, but since then Wilson has been a train wreck which surprises no one. And what’s amazing is that despite being on the periphery of playoff contention, Jets’ leadership stubbornly (foolishly?) continued to ride with him and did not sign a veteran free agent QB when several were available.

Last week Wilson at least showed signs of life as he totaled a season-high 317 yards (263 passing, 54 rushing). It was the first time in his career he has had back-to-back games with at least 250 yards passing. Yet still, all he could produce were four field goals in a 16-12 loss to the underwhelming Raiders. In their last five games, Wilson has directed three TD drives but because of their defense, the Jets are 3-2 in those games.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Jets’ injury-ravaged offensive line as the worst in the league, so one would assume the Bills will be able to generate heat on Wilson, and the pass rush will be helped in that endeavor if FS Micah Hyde and CB Christian Benford can return to bolster the secondary. The key will be making sure Wilson doesn’t hurt them the way Denver’s Russell Wilson did last week with his effective scrambling, and that is one thing the Jets’ QB can do.

Beyond that, it comes down to containing two players. WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall, the Jets two best offensive weapons, both of whom hurt the Bills in the opener. However, Wilson is questionable and may not play. He and Hall are essentially the Jets’ offense, so if they don’t have Wilson, that’s a tremendous blow.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 16, Jets 10

I really don’t have much faith in the Buffalo offense getting much of anything done against this Jets defense which has driven Allen batty. Brady replacing Dorsey isn’t going to make much of a difference if the Bills’ wide receivers can’t get open against New York’s outstanding secondary, and the offensive line can’t handle the Jets’ ferocious front four.

On the flip side, though, Zach Wilson stinks, and even though he has two terrific weapons in Garrett Wilson (if he plays) and Hall, I think the Bills’ defense at home will avoid the indignity of having this QB record a third victory against them in his disappointing three-year career.

Bills vs. Jets: News and notes

▶ Since the start of 2020, the Bills are 11-1 with a point differential of plus-151 in home games against AFC East opponents. The only loss was to the Patriots in the wind tunnel game of 2021.

▶ When the Jets rallied from 10 points down at the half in Week 1, it matched the largest halftime deficit in a comeback win in Bills-Jets series history. The Bills also came from behind 13-3 to win in 2009.

▶ Although he had a down game against Denver, Diggs reached 73 receptions for the season. He has had at least 70 in the first 10 games in three of his four years in Buffalo, and he is the only player in team history who has ever had that many at the 10-game mark.

▶ Last week Allen tied Jim Kelly’s team record of throwing at least one TD pass in 18 straight games which Kelly did not during the Super Bowl years, but bridging his first two seasons in 1986 and 1987.

▶ Also, Allen produced his 32nd career game where he had at least one passing and one rushing TD, putting him alone in second all-time in NFL history for such games behind Cam Newton (45).

▶ Cook has 615 yards rushing and 222 receiving, joining Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers, Travis Etienne of the Jaguars, and Josh Jacobs of the Raiders as RBs with at least 600 rushing and 200 receiving this season. Last week, his 120 yards from scrimmage were the second-highest of his career (he had 159 against the Bears in 2022).

▶ Buffalo leads the NFL with 220 total first downs this season, ahead of the Vikings and Eagles with 210 each. The last time Buffalo led the league in first downs outright in a season was in 1992.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

• Mon. Sept . 11, Jets 22, Bills 16 (OT)

• Sun., Sept. 17, Bills 38, Raiders 10

• Sun. Sept. 24, Bills 37, Commanders 3

• Sun. Oct. 1, Bills 48, Dolphins 20

• Sun. Oct. 8, Jaguars 25, Bills 20

• Sun. Oct. 15, Bills 14, Giants 9

• Sun. Oct. 22, Patriots 29, Bills 25

• Thur. Oct. 26, Bills 24, Buccaneers 18

• Sun. Nov. 5, Bengals 24, Bills 18

• Mon. Nov. 13, Broncos 24, Bills 22

• Sun. Nov. 19, vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m.

• Sun. Nov. 26, at Eagles, 4:25 p.m.

• Sun. Dec. 3, Bye week

• Sun. Dec. 10, at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.

• Sun. Dec. 17, vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.

• Sat. Dec. 23, at Chargers, 8 p.m.

• Sun. Dec. 31, vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.

• Sun. Jan. 7, at Dolphins, TBD

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Jets prediction and keys to AFC East game, NFL Week 11