Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction, keys to windy and snowy playoff game

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

ORCHARD PARK - For some reason, Buffalo Bills fans romanticize bad weather games. I’ll never understand the allure of it, but hey, to each his own.

Sunday afternoon, the weather at Highmark Stadium could be miserable, and if that winds up being the case, the fans who take their shirts off will be reveling, but it could be a concerning development for the Bills when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in their AFC wild-card game.

No one is going to make excuses; both teams are playing in the same conditions. But there’s simply no denying that weather can often work against the superior team, which the Bills are, because it can level the playing field a bit and potentially bring a bit more luck into the equation of the game, particularly in the form of fluky turnovers which, as we know, has been a Buffalo bugaboo.

Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletter Delivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana

Buffalo’s offense, as we’ve said the last few years with Josh Allen at quarterback, is much more dangerous when it can utilize the full breadth of the playbook. Pittsburgh’s offense, with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, is not, and right there, the weather could diminish the big advantage the Bills have at QB.

The Steelers can thrive in ugly weather because in many ways they are built for it with their physical running game and their tough as nails defense. The Bills can claim the same because their defense is statistically better than Pittsburgh’s, and they have James Cook who is the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher, but part of the Bills’ success with running is tied directly to the strength of their passing game. Their offense takes the bigger hit if the weather makes it too difficult to move effectively through the air.

Last January, Bills fans were over the moon excited about the snow that was falling in Orchard Park for the divisional round game against the Bengals, at least until the game started. Bills weather, right. Final score, Bengals 27, Bills 10. To be fair, that wasn’t all about the weather, but in my opinion, the snow affected Buffalo more than Cincinnati.

Those Bengals were a better team than these Steelers, but I’m just making the point that when it comes to bad weather, be careful what you wish for.

Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

James Cook will need to step up and have a big game for the Bills if the expected snowstorm affects the Buffalo passing game.
James Cook will need to step up and have a big game for the Bills if the expected snowstorm affects the Buffalo passing game.

One of the things the Bills have tried to do this season is be a more efficient team in the run game, and with much-needed improvement on the offensive line and the breakthrough of RB James Cook, they have done so. It’s weird because in 2022, they actually had a way higher average per attempt (5.1 to 4.3), but that was partially because Josh Allen ran for 245 more yards. In 2023 it just felt like the Bills were a more consistent running team as their RBs gained 1,688 yards compared to 1,418 in 2022.

The need to run may never be more important than Sunday if the snow piles up and the winds gust into the 30s and 40s as forecast. No matter how strong Allen’s arm is, throwing accurately in those conditions is virtually impossible. More than likely, Joe Brady is going to have to limit his call sheet in the pass game and he’s going to need to get Cook, Allen and probably Leonard Fournette going on the ground. That’s not a bad thing because the Steelers rank 21st in yards allowed per carry (4.3). To do so, winning up front, particularly in the interior, will be the key because on a slick field, running straight between the tackles will be more effective than attacking the edges where cuts could result in wipeouts.

Extending drives will also be important, and the Bills have been a third-down machine with Allen at QB. They led the league with a 49.8% conversion rate this year, the third time in the last four years they’ve been No. 1 and far and away the reason for that is Allen, obviously as a passer but particularly his running ability. All QBs convert third downs passing, but very few do it as often by running because defenses simply have no answer for Allen’s mobility and strength when he tucks it and goes. I would expect Allen will be called on to use his legs at least 10 times between designed runs and scrambles.

Losing WR Gabe Davis hurts, especially in a game where run blocking is paramount. He has been a non-factor as a pass catcher in several games, but the reason he plays so much is his blocking on the perimeter. Trent Sherfield will have to step up and assume those duties, and fortunately for the Bills, he’s well-equipped to do that.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Rudolph has been a backup QB from the moment he entered the NFL as a third-round pick of the Steelers in 2018 and didn’t make an appearance in the 2018 or 2022 seasons. He has started only four games since 2020, but three of those came in the last three weeks. Kenny Pickett got hurt, Mitch Trubisky failed as his replacement, so Mike Tomlin turned to third-stringer Rudolph and all he did was lead the Steelers to three victories which allowed them to squeeze into the playoffs.

Rudolph completed 74.3% of his passes and averaged 179.8 passing yards, so nothing great, but what he did that Pickett and Trubisky could not do was move the chains and score. The Steelers averaged 15.9 points per game in their first 14 games, but when Rudolph stepped in they averaged 27.0 points.

The Steelers are a plodding, run-oriented team who got a combined 1,819 rushing yards from their 1-2 RB tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and you can bet the house that they will try to pound the ball at Buffalo’s defense which ranked tied for 27th in yards allowed per rush at 4.7. They probably would have done this even if the weather conditions weren’t going to be challenging.

Harris and Warren are both physical backs, and Warren adds the element of being an excellent pass catcher. I would expect that on a day when throwing downfield will be difficult, we’ll see plenty of swing passes to Warren and even Harris, plus some quick hitch routes to TE Pat Freiermuth.

However, they do have occasional explosiveness with outside WRs George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. They completed four TD passes of at least 70 yards in 2023 which was the most in the NFL, and they had six TDs of at least 66 yards, three of those plays coming on Rudolph passes including Johnson’s 71-yard TD last week in that monsoon in Baltimore. On the flip side, the Bills were the only team in the league to not give up a TD of more than 50 yards. But again, throwing downfield figures to be pretty difficult and this will be a game won in the trenches.

The Bills ranked third in the NFL with 18 interceptions and was also the second-most in the McDermott era, but this is a Pittsburgh offense that turned the ball over just 16 times (none by Rudolph), which tied for third-fewest in the league. That was the lowest giveaway total for Pittsburgh since 1990, so the Bills’ defense is going to need to rely on making traditional third-down stops to get off the field.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 13

This has the potential to be a scary game for all the reasons I just laid out, mostly because of the weather. The Bills have been a resilient team and that was evident when they won their final five games to steal the AFC East from the Dolphins. That resiliency will be put to the test again as they face the pressure of being a heavy favorite against a No. 7 seed, and they will likely be without Davis, CB Rasul Douglas, LB Tyrel Dodson and S Taylor Rapp.

The way the Bills have run the ball this season is why I think they will be able to deal with the expected weather, and a big part of that, obviously, is the threat that Allen provides. He’s the X factor because he’s the QB in this game who you would expect to make the biggest plays at the biggest times. However, if the Bills turn the ball over, which has been a problem for them, this game could definitely wind up being a disastrous loss.

It’ll be tough, it’ll be tense, and I think it’s going to come down to the end when the Bills defense might need to stand tall to protect a lead late in the game, and I think the Bills will survive and advance.

Bills vs. Steelers: News and notes

▶ The Bills and Chiefs are the only teams to have won at least 10 games and make the playoffs in each of the last five seasons.

▶ No matter what the stadium in Orchard Park has been called, the Bills have been great there in the postseason as they have a 14-4 record.

▶ The Bills’ 451 points were the fifth most in team history, their plus-141 point differential tied for the fifth-best mark in team history, their 155 points in the second quarter were second most ever, and their 29 points allowed in the third quarter was fourth-lowest.

▶ The Steelers have now finished above .500 for 20 straight years, the second-longest streak in NFL history. But they have not won a playoff game since 2016.

Josh Allen is 4-1 in postseason games played at Highmark Stadium.
Josh Allen is 4-1 in postseason games played at Highmark Stadium.

▶ This will be Pittsburgh’s 63rd playoff game since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, most in the NFL and just ahead of the Cowboys who will be playing their 62nd this weekend. The Steelers’ 36 playoff wins since the merger are tied with the Patriots for No. 1.

▶ The Steelers are just the fifth team to win at least 10 games but finish with a point differential of minus-20 or worse. Their 304 points on offense ranked 28th in the league, but their 324 points allowed is sixth-best.

▶ The Steelers scored 34 points in Week 16 against the Bengals and 30 against the Seahawks in Week 17. The last time they reached 30 before that stretch was Week 11 of 2021.

2023 Buffalo Bills schedule

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Steelers prediction, keys to windy and snowy playoff game

Advertisement