Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction and keys to Saturday night game

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

Welcome to another week of must-win Buffalo Bills football, only this time the task at hand is seemingly a little less daunting as Sean McDermott’s rejuvenated team heads out to Los Angeles to face the road kill Chargers at SoFi Stadium.

OK, maybe that’s a bit harsh, but let’s face the facts here: This has been a disastrous season for the Chargers, a team that was considered a legitimate threat at the start of the year to dethrone the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs from their perennial perch atop the AFC West.

Yeah, right.

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The Chargers are 5-9 thanks to five losses in their last six games (the only win was 6-0 over the Patriots) and are already out of the playoff race. They have lost star quarterback Justin Herbert and star wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and following an apocalyptic 63-21 loss to the Raiders on Dec. 14, ownership fired head coach Brandon Staley and general manager and western New York native Tom Telesco.

A dumpster fire is what it is for perhaps the most invisible team residing in Southern California - college or pro across all sports.

We all know the long and tortured history of the Bills, but things sure haven’t been any better across the Chargers’ two-city, 64-year existence and 2023 is right up there among the most disappointing seasons, in relation to expectations, they’ve endured.

All that said, the Bills - who have lost five out of seven games away from Highmark Stadium (including the neutral site London game) - had better not sleepwalk and allow Los Angeles to hang around because you never know how the new coach bump will impact how the Chargers play, and both McDermott and Josh Allen know this.

“There’s going to be a lot of unknowns when we head out there,” McDermott said, referencing new coach Giff Smith plus new quarterback Easton Stick. “So we’ve got to make sure that we are playing good team football, we’re all disciplined the way we need to be disciplined, and focused where we need to be focused. And I think that’s a big part of the challenge this week.”

To which Allen agreed. “I can’t tell you what’s going on in their minds right now with the coaching change and this and that, but I can tell you one thing - they’re gonna be ready to play come Saturday night,” he said.

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Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Chargers game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

James Cook had the best game of his career last week against the Cowboys.
James Cook had the best game of his career last week against the Cowboys.

The Bills didn’t need to throw the ball against the Cowboys because they ran it down Dallas’ throat all day and were never stopped. James Cook was electric as he continued his big trend upward since Joe Brady became the offensive coordinator. He was averaging 14 touches and 83.7 yards from scrimmage per game in 10 games under Ken Dorsey; in four games under Brady it’s 21 touches for 141 yards.

Feeding Cook should remain integral to the attack because the Chargers aren’t exactly stout against the run as they rank 18th at 113.9 yards allowed per game thanks to a soft middle of their D-line. But this Chargers defense, which is minus star edge rusher Joey Bosa and may not have DT Nick Williams, has been even worse against the pass.

Despite racking up 44 sacks including a league-leading 26 on third-down plays, the Chargers are a mess as they rank 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (261.4) and not surprisingly, their 7.1 yards per attempt yield is 27th. Poor tackling is a key reason as their 1,928 yards allowed after contact is the most in the NFL, while their 54 completions of 20 yards or more is third-most.

CB Asante Samuel has played well on one side but CB Michael Davis is wildly inconsistent and Pro Football Focus has him responsible for nine passing TDs against while allowing a passer rating of a ghastly 122.8. Opposing teams know this as he has been targeted an average of once every 5.4 coverage snaps. Behind the corners, safety Derwin James has not been the same player and is allowing a completion percentage of 74.5 into his coverage responsibility.

If the Bills’ offensive line, which has played well all year against some excellent defensive fronts, can keep edge rusher Khalil Mack (15 sacks, five forced fumbles) from creating havoc, Allen should have plenty of opportunities to pick apart the Chargers secondary, and not only with his receivers. LA’s linebacker group led by Kenneth Murray and Eric Kendricks has been awful in coverage so Cook and TEs Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid could and should be key elements.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Without question, the Bills are fortunate not to be facing Herbert, Williams and Allen because those three players are among the best in the NFL. This Chargers offense is limited without them and after the way Buffalo dominated a great Dallas offense last week, it sure seems like Los Angeles could be in for a long night.

Buffalo’s defense has really turned a corner after some midseason struggles as it adjusted to all the key injuries. In winning three of the last four games, the Bills have allowed an average of just 268.5 yards and have forced nine turnovers. For the season the Bills now rank fourth in points allowed (18.1), 12th in yards (312.8), tied for third in turnovers (24), and fifth in sacks (45).

McDermott pointed to one key factor in why the defense has played better lately: The pass rush and coverage are working hand in hand. Up front, the Bills are generating pressure on 24.3% of opposing QBs dropbacks, seventh-best in the league, and they’re doing it by blitzing only 22.8% of the time meaning more men are back in coverage. And the arrival of CB Rasul Douglas has really solidified the back end, along with excellent play from CBs Christian Benford and Taron Johnson. In PFFs cornerback rankings, those three are all graded in the top 17 which is pretty impressive.

How has that translated? Since Douglas came over from Green Bay prior to the Bengals game, here’s what the defense has done against the best passing game targets: Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals (4 catches, 41 yards, 0 TDs); Courtland Sutton of the Broncos (8-53-1); Garrett Wilson of the Jets (2-9-0); A.J. Brown of the Eagles (5-37-1), though it must be noted that DeVonta Smith went off (7-106-1); Travis Kelce of the Chiefs (6-83-0); and CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys (7-53-0).

Stick will be making just his second NFL start even though he’s been with the Chargers since 2019. He’ll have Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnson as his WRs, TE Gerald Everett, and dual-threat RB Austin Ekeler as his primary weapons and if the Bills continue playing the way they have, the Chargers will be hard-pressed to get anything sustained on offense.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 26, Chargers 10

Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack has 15 sacks this year which ranks third in the NFL.
Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack has 15 sacks this year which ranks third in the NFL.

There are some uncertainties about this game with a new Los Angeles coach and a quarterback no one knows much of anything about. And there is no doubt that the Chargers have some talented players, but there’s no way that I see them getting off the deck and beating a Buffalo team that knows it has to win out to secure a playoff berth.

There won’t be much of a homefield advantage for the Chargers because there never is at SoFi Stadium. Visiting team fan bases routinely flock to Los Angeles and at best, it’s a neutral field, and I would imagine there will be a huge Bills Mafia presence.

This is a game that might be close for a little while if the Chargers are inspired playing for Smith, plus eager to wash away the embarrassment of their last game, but I think the Bills will methodically pull away for their third straight victory and keep the playoff push moving.

Bills vs. Chargers: News and notes

Josh Allen is three touchdowns away from 40 this season.
Josh Allen is three touchdowns away from 40 this season.

▶ New Chargers coach Giff Smith was the Bills’ defensive line coach from 2010-12 under Chan Gailey.

▶ This is the 10th time (not counting the canceled Bengals game in 2022) the Bills have played in primetime in the last two seasons. They are 7-3 in those games and overall in the McDermott era, they are 13-8 in primetime.

▶ Josh Allen leads the NFL in both total touchdowns (37) and total offensive yards (3,939). If he produces three TDs, he will become the first player in NFL history with at least 40 in four consecutive seasons.

▶ Cook, who was named AFC offensive player of the week, had 221 yards from scrimmage against the Cowboys, the most by a Bills player since Fred Jackson had 227 against the Colts on Jan. 3, 2010. He now sits second in the NFL with 968 rushing yards and is third in yards from scrimmage with 1,401.

▶ Stick’s three TD passes against the Raiders were the most ever for a Chargers’ QB in his first career start.

▶ The Bills have scored TDs on 67.3% of their red zone trips which is third-best in the NFL, while the Chargers rank fourth at 65.0%.

▶ Ekeler is 21 yards from scrimmage shy of 900 and if he hits that mark, it will be six straight seasons which is the most ever for an undrafted running back. He is also one rushing TD shy of 40 for his career, a mark reached by only two other Chargers RBs - LaDainian Tomlinson and Chuck Muncie. If he scores, he will also have 70 career TDs, a mark reached by an undrafted player only by TE Antonio Gates and RB Priest Holmes.

▶ This year Mack joined Hall of Famer Kevin Greene as the only players in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in one season with three different teams. Since he entered the NFL in 2014, Mack’s 99.5 sacks and 425 QB pressures are second in the NFL behind only Aaron Donald of the Rams (109 and 472). Mack is also tied for the lead since 2014 with 30 forced fumbles.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Chargers prediction and keys to Saturday night game

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