Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction, keys to AFC playoff showdown

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

ORCHARD PARK - The stakes are the same on a macro level for the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs Sunday night when they clash in the final NFL divisional round playoff game of the weekend.

The winner advances to the AFC Championship Game, either in their home stadium or, most likely, at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. The loser is packing up for the offseason Monday morning.

However, on a micro level, there is no doubt that the Bills have more on the line at Highmark Stadium, and you get the sense that they know it.

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They allowed the Chiefs to end their 2020 and 2021 seasons in the postseason, and while they have defeated Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes three straight years in the regular season - all in Kansas City - the Bills have to take the next step against this team and win a playoff game.

“They’ve gotten the best of us in the playoffs the last few years; we’ve yet to beat them in the postseason,” Josh Allen said. “This is a team that plays their best when they’re asked to. They’ve been at the top of the mountain, they know what it takes to get there. We’ve yet to do that. As a competitor, as a player to be in a situation like this, it’s something you dream about. I know guys on this team have been waiting for this moment for a long time.”

Josh Allen and the Bills hope to be flying high Sunday when they host the Chiefs.
Josh Allen and the Bills hope to be flying high Sunday when they host the Chiefs.

Some are calling this a legacy game for both Allen and coach Sean McDermott. And in real time, perhaps it is. Of course, there was a similar feeling last January when the Bills hosted the Bengals in the divisional round. They lost that game, but now they’re right back in the same position, and who’s to say they won’t be in this same situation for several years to come?

Allen is only in his sixth NFL season and has plenty of time build his legacy, so legacy game might be a bit much.

But what is inarguable is that the Bills have been one of the league’s best teams since the start of 2019, and there isn’t a whole lot to show for that success when it comes to the postseason.

The Bills and Chiefs are the only two teams in the NFL who have won at least 10 games each of the last five years (it’s nine straight for KC) and they are the only two who have advanced to the divisional round four straight years (six for the Chiefs).

The Chiefs have five AFC title game appearances, three AFC championships and two Super Bowl triumphs; all Buffalo has is a 5-4 postseason record and just one advancement to the AFC title game. So yes, this game means a lot for both franchises, but it means way more to the Bills.

“We understand that every time that we play them it’s a all-or-nothing game and it’s gonna come down to us at some point during the football season,” said offensive tackle Dion Dawkins. “And they have shown in many ways that they are great, as well as us. Just be ready for a gritty, gritty football game. Really, really gritty.”

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Chiefs game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Kansas City cornerback Trent McDuffie is a first-team All-Pro.
Kansas City cornerback Trent McDuffie is a first-team All-Pro.

The Bills won’t have WR Gabe Davis, and now Stefon Diggs is dealing with a foot injury that could limit his effectiveness Sunday. That’s not good, especially against a Kansas City defense that is one of the best in the NFL and possesses two CBs in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie who are elite.

Sneed has shut down every No. 1 WR he has faced including Diggs in the first game on Dec. 10 (4 catches, 24 yards) while McDuffie - a first-team All-Pro at nickel CB who can also go out wide - is a force of nature in every aspect. He’s great in coverage, is an elite tackler, and has been used on multiple blitzes from the slot. His three sacks and 16 QB pressures are the most of any CB in the NFL this year, one of those sacks coming against Allen in Week 14. If Sneed travels with Diggs when the Chiefs play man-to-man, McDuffie will most likely be matched up with either slot WR Khalil Shakir or TE Dalton Kincaid.

We saw how good the Chiefs defense can be in the first meeting as it held the Bills to 20 points (tied for their fourth-lowest total) and 327 yards (fifth-lowest) and that was despite more than 35 minutes of possession time. Allen threw for just 209 yards, was picked off once and sacked three times. Since then, the Chiefs have only gotten better as they have allowed just 71 points in their last five games. Their 16.7 average points allowed during the regular season was second-best in the NFL, and they also ranked second in sacks, fourth against the pass, and eighth in red zone defense.

With the Buffalo defense banged up and missing key players, Allen is going to need to be great in order for the Bills to score enough to win. He has to take advantage of every opportunity he gets in the pass game, and while the Chiefs will almost certainly have a spy on him (probably LBs Willie Gay or Nick Bolton) as they did in the first game, he’ll have to find a way to affect the game as a runner. And speaking of running, RB James Cook is in the crosshairs, too. He had a big game against the Chiefs with 58 yards rushing and 83 receiving and that production might be essential in this game.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have split their first six meetings, but Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have split their first six meetings, but Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason.

This is certainly not the same Chiefs offense that lit up scoreboards in Mahomes’ first five seasons as the starting QB. In those years, the Chiefs scored fewer than 20 points in just six games, but in 2023 that happened an eye-opening seven times (and there was an eighth in the season finale when Mahomes didn’t play). The Chiefs ranked 13th in the NFL at 22.1 points per game. In a related note, when the Bills allow 21 points or less, they are 11-0 this season.

In the first game, the Bills held the Chiefs to 17 points, 346 yards (just 82 on the ground), and forced two turnovers. However, the Chiefs did not have RB Isiah Pacheco and he is a difference-maker who they really missed that day. Pacheco is back and in a key game against the Bengals on Dec. 31 he had 165 yards from scrimmage, then against Miami in the wild-card round he had 88.

Also, rookie WR Rashee Rice has emerged as a threat on the outside, something Mahomes didn’t have most of the year. In the last seven games Rice has 51 catches on 68 targets for 648 yards and four TDs including seven for 72 yards and a TD against the Bills. The Bills have often struggled with tackling, but that can’t happen, not against a tough runner like Pacheco who forces plenty of missed tackles with his aggressive style, and not against TE Travis Kelce who still can be dangerous after the catch.

Not having MLB Terrel Bernard is going to be a huge loss for Buffalo. He has seven turnovers this year, led the Bills in tackles, and without him that weakens the middle of the field which is exactly where Kelce has built his Hall of Fame career. AJ Klein will start for Bernard and he’s a wily, knowledgeable vet, and the Bills are hoping LB Tyrel Dodson can play, but neither is close in coverage ability to Bernard. The Bills may need to rely heavier on their three-safety look and move SS Jordan Poyer into the box so that he can help against Kelce and Rice running crossing routes. Poyer will then be a key player when the Chiefs run Pacheco against that lighter box look.

Perhaps the biggest aspect for the Bills on defense is the pass rush. It has to feed off the energy of the home crowd and get the heat on Mahomes to make up for the depleted situation in the back seven. Mahomes is great at escaping the rush, but it isn’t always about sacks. Pressure and lessening his time to go through his progressions is vital, and if the rushers can’t get there, they need to get their arms up and tighten his throwing windows because the bulk of his attempts are going to be in the short to intermediate range. Edge rushers Leonard Floyd, Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa should have advantages over the Chiefs’ shaky OT duo of Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith and hey, maybe Von Miller will actually make a play.

Sal’s prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 23

The Bills’ injury situation has me spooked, plain and simple. If Buffalo was healthier on defense, I would have been all over a Bills victory, playing at home. But the absences of Bernard, Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp, and Rasul Douglas and Dodson perhaps hindered by their injuries, is problematic against future Hall of Fame players like Mahomes and Kelce and a Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid.

Yes, the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been all that scary, but let’s not forget, these are still the Chiefs, this is the postseason, and they are still the proud defending champions. And while I fully expect Allen to play well, this Chiefs’ defense is great at every level. With their CBs, Sneed and McDuffie, they can shut down any WR, and they pair that with a dynamic pass rush led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.

In the end, I think it’s going to be tight throughout, a turnover or a late field goal might decide it - and in that scenario, I trust KC’s Harrison Butker over Buffalo’s Tyler Bass - and the Chiefs will do what they always seem to do in the postseason and find a way, even though they’re on the road for the first time in the Mahomes era.

Bills vs. Chiefs: News and notes

James Cook needs to have a big night as a runner, and possibly as a receiver, like he had in Kansas City on Dec. 10.
James Cook needs to have a big night as a runner, and possibly as a receiver, like he had in Kansas City on Dec. 10.

▶ If the Chiefs win, they will play in their sixth straight AFC Championship Game, second in NFL history only to the eight in a row the Patriots played in from 2011-18. And for Reid, it would be his 11th conference championship game (four with the Eagles) which would be second only to Bill Belichick’s 13.

▶ The Chiefs are on quite a roll when their defense allows 17-or-fewer points as they have won 45 straight games including the postseason, the fourth-longest streak in NFL history.

▶ Allen has been sacked on just 4% of his dropbacks which is the fewest in the league, 3% lower than the league average.

▶ With 491 postseason rushing yards, Allen ranks fourth in NFL history and is just 103 behind all-time leader Steve Young who had 594. Young also played 13 more postseason games than Allen has to date.

▶ The Bills have gone three-and-out on just 12% of their possessions, best in the NFL and 10% better than the league average.

▶ The Buffalo defense has given up just one pass of at least 40 yards (on 551 attempts) which is easily the best in the NFL. On the flip side, it has allowed 13 rushes of at least 20 yards which is tied for fifth-worst.

▶ Kelce has 11 consecutive postseason games with at least five receptions which is second in NFL playoff history to Julian Edelman (13) and he has 10 in a row with at least 50 receiving yards which is tied for second-most. He now ranks second in NFL postseason history in catches (140), receiving yards (1,619) and receiving TDs (16).

▶ The Chiefs have been stout against the run in the red zone as they have allowed just four rushing TDs down there this season which is tied for fewest in the NFL.

▶ Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor has been called for 19 penalties this season, most in the NFL by seven over the next most-penalized player, Jets OT Mekhi Becton.

2023 Buffalo Bills schedule

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Chiefs prediction, keys to AFC playoff game in Buffalo

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