When will Brockton see its first snowfall? Local experts weigh in.
After a month of record-breaking heat this October in Brockton, including one day with a high of 90 degrees Fahrenheit and five days with highs in the 80’s, the first day of November finally brought chilly conditions to the area.
Yesterday, Boston, Norwood, and Plymouth — the closest observation stations to Brockton with published data — measured lows of 39, 33, and 39 degrees Fahrenheit respectively, according to the National Weather Service.
“It's currently 27°F at the office here in Norton,” the National Weather Service in Boston posted on Twitter at 7 a.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 2. “The last time it was this chilly was on April 10th! While it may feel like a shock, these temperatures are not abnormal for this time of year,” they wrote.
The first of the month also brought Massachusetts its first flurries in the central and western part of the state. While snow is not in the forecast for the Brockton area in the next couple weeks, many residents may be wondering when they should expect it. Here's what to know about snowfall in Brockton in November and December.
How likely is it to snow in Brockton in November this year?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) online weather data from 1991 to 2020, the total snowfall normal for Brockton in November was only .2 inches. In December, that changed to 4.5 inches, January with 9.1 inches, and February with 12.8 inches.
From 1999 to 2023, Brockton saw snowfall in November in 2018 (2.5 inches) and in 2014 (.3 inches). The data for November was missing for the years 2005 and 2011.
What about December?
Based on past data, it’s much more likely that Brockton will see its first snowfall in December.
From 1999 to 2023, Brockton saw snowfall in December in 2020 (10 inches), 2019 (10.5 inches), 2017 (4.5 inches), 2016 (5.0 inches), 2013 (8 inches), 2012 (4 inches), 2003 (20 inches), 2002 (13 inches), 2001 (3 inches).
December in the years 2022, 2021, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, and 1999 didn’t see any snowfall and the data was missing for the years 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011.
What else to expect this winter
Eastern Massachusetts, including the Brockton area, is expected to see a 33–40% increased chance of above average precipitation, according to the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s 2023-2024 U.S. winter outlook.
WINTER 2023: How will El Niño affect the Brockton area this winter? Everything you need to know
According to the NOAA, this year’s seasonal outlook is driven by a climate pattern called El Niño, a weather phenomenon that begins with the warming of the ocean’s surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
However, according to NWS meteorologist Bill Leatham, snowfall is harder to predict. “For snowfall, we can really only predict up to two weeks ahead of time. It depends on what the temperature is when those weather systems move through,” he said.
This article originally appeared on The Enterprise: Winter snowfall predictions for Brockton, MA in Nov and Dec 2023
