What should Brewers fans expect in 2024? In their own words, here's what they said

The results are in and the Milwaukee Brewers are going to contend for a playoff spot in 2024…

…if results from the Journal Sentinel’s fan survey are to be believed, that is.

In our survey asking Brewers fans what their expectations were for the upcoming season, the vast majority of about 300 respondents had at least some semblance of an optimistic outlook for Milwaukee, which is coming off a 92-win campaign but will be without the likes of starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff among others this year.

Most expect the Brewers to surpass their average projected win total

The Brewers are projected to win 78.5 games according to the average of Vegas over/under lines, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections and FanGraphs’ projected standings.

A whopping majority – 79.6% of fans – indicated they believe the Brewers will surpass that total.

The average number of wins from the survey was 83.7, while the median as well as the most common answer was 85.

Rounding up to 84 wins would put the Brewers within earshot of a playoff spot – last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks snuck into the postseason with 84 wins and made the World Series – but would more likely than not put them on the wrong side of the cut line.

Still, that would very much put them in the mix in a division that isn’t expected to have a runaway winner.

What the optimists said

We also asked fans to explain why they chose the win totals they did. Here are some of the answers from those who see Milwaukee hitting the over.

“The offense is revamped. I like Peralta to put up a Cy Young-season. D.L. Hall looks nasty and the bullpen from last year comes back pretty similar to last year. This team is going to be sneaky good, and we know the national media is always down on the Brewers. I believe they will vastly out play their projections.” -Brandon in Watertown (94 predicted wins)

“Much improved offense on paper should hopefully offset starting pitching losses. I’m very impressed with Matt Arnold’s ability and willingness to try and build this team to win in different ways than under Stearns.” -Daniel in Indiana (89 predicted wins)

“The talented prospects take advantage of their big league opportunities and outperform expectations after finding their groove. Also, the past few years have shown the front office’s ability to find some diamonds in the rough or under the radar players who surprise many.” -Chris in Madison (86 predicted wins)

“The Brewers' Rays-style roster management and game-to-game usage patterns enable them to maximize their regular season wins even when their top-level talent is lacking. This is especially true on the run prevention side; I expect their defense and pitching staff to outperform their projections. They'll also likely add a little talent throughout the season (not just at the trade deadline). Still, I don't think this year's club is likely to eclipse 90 wins or be favored in any postseason match-up. But another bite at the apple seems reasonably likely, and anything can happen in the playoffs.” -Bill in Atlanta (88 predicted wins)

“Foolish optimism.” -Marlene in Verona (89 predicted wins)

“I think they have a good team, but the 2 anchors of the staff have not been able to stay healthy. I see both Peralta and Miley missing some time this year. Like most years. And I think it will take one of DL Hall or Gasser to have a very nice year to get to 86. If both have good years, we will sniff 90.” -Casey in Appleton (86 predicted wins)

“Youth will have its up and downs but the fans will love them.” -Ed in Wauwatosa (83 predicted wins)

“I think the youth gets better but the lack of elite SP will result in overall regression over last season.” -Andy in Oak Creek (83 predicted wins)

“Optimism.” -Sharon in Dunedin, FL (85 predicted wins)

What the other side said

Most are feeling the optimism of spring training that typically rolls around this time of year, but not all.

“I think this season will be a transition from a pitching-dominated team to an offensive-dominated team. With the offense being so young I don’t see them being able to carry us to much more than 75 wins.” -Jack in Oshkosh (75 predicted wins)

Regression in pitching, inconsistent offense until proven otherwise, relying on too many young players makes it difficult to imagine winning consistently.” -Pete in Port Washington (68 predicted wins)

“The position players are too young to be consistent and the pitching staff is replacement-level behind Peralta. Ownership was far too happy with 'bites of the apple' to go all-in the last few seasons, but will be more than happy to tout our team's 'bright future' which, regardless of how well the young guys perform, they will fail to fully capitalize on.” -Sam in Milwaukee (75 predicted wins)

“Rebuild.” -Brian in Weston (75 predicted wins)

The Brewers' pitching was a common theme in this group, too.

“Lack of starting pitching and a young, inexperienced roster.” -Shane in Mequon (74 predicted wins)

“Lack of pitching depth.” -Bruce in Ocala, FL (72 predicted wins)

“Loss of key starting pitching.” -John in Schaumburg, IL (72 predicted wins)

“Starting pitching is pedestrian.” -Bob in Geneva Township (72 predicted wins)

“Lack of pitching depth. Don’t think they have the arms to hold up over a full season.” -Nick in Salt Lake City (72 predicted wins)

“Pitching is going to take a huge drop.” -Jim in New Berlin (72 predicted wins)

“Lack of pitching.” -Dan in Oak Creek (72 predicted wins)

“Lack of starting pitching.” -TJ in Wadsworth, IL (71 predicted wins)

“Lack of established starting pitching.” -Tom from Appleton (71 predicted wins)

There are seemingly lots of Pat Murphy fans out there

The Brewers new manager hasn’t even written the lineup card for his first game as a full-time skipper in the big leagues yet, but he’s already got the approval of most fans, it seems.

“Have faith in Pat Murphy and excited to see what the young guys do! Plus it’s more fun to be optimistic about your baseball team!” -Todd in Milwaukee (89 predicted wins)

“Murphy will likely follow most of Counsell’s successful regular season strategies, which regularly beat projections.” -Eric in Glendale (85 predicted wins)

“Best pen in baseball, incredible speed in the outfield and a manager who will bring a winning mentality.” -Mike in Campbellsport (89 predicted wins)

“I think the core will age well and the sophomores will take a step forward. I also think Pat Murphy’s experience in college will translate well to developing young talent.” -Josh in Milwaukee (89 predicted wins)

“This team is going to be special. The outfield is going to be incredible, the bullpen is still top notch, Freddy will be unreal and Murphy is going to light a fire under this team!” -Goatlake in Milwaukee (91 predicted wins)

And about the previous manager?

It’s no surprise that plenty of comments made mention of Craig Counsell, the former Milwaukee manager who left in the off-season to take the managerial job with the Chicago Cubs. Much of the Brewers' success in recent years was attributed to Counsell, but many (though not all) fans believe the team will be able to overcome the loss.

“The manager difference is not as significant as people think, especially with all the rules that lobotomize the game (people estimating that Counsell adds 5-6 wins are greatly overestimating his impact).” -Ian in Minneapolis (87 predicted wins)

“They are always underrated by the projection systems. Management knows how to get the most out of their players. I think the “Counsell Effect” was a little overhyped, and that will be proven out this season.” -Jamie in Greenfield (87 predicted wins)

“Lack of pitching, Craig Counsell gone.” -Mark in Fox Point (75 predicted wins)

“Our talent is still there and Counsell is no longer around to turn wins into losses with his overanalyzing every little thing. Murphy will let the game dictate his moves more than relying on what the computer tells him to do. Plus we’ll beat the Cubs more because Counsell will turn their wins into losses.” -Bill in Hartford (92 predicted wins)

“The loss of (Woodruff), Burnes and (Counsell) ... the loss of the manager will be the loss of 5 games, which equals not only less wins but more losses equaling a total of 10 games.” -Unnamed in La Crosse (82 predicted wins)

“I think Matt Arnold has done a good job augmenting this roster after the loss of key contributors from 2023 such as Burnes, Woodruff (injury), Canha, Santana, Tyrone Taylor and Adrian Houser. Not to mention the loss of arguably the league’s best manager in Public Enemy #1, Craig Counsell.” -Spencer in Sussex (84 predicted wins)

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers fans express optimism on over/under win total in 2024