Breaking down chances of high draft pick if Miami misses playoffs. More on Heat’s collapse

The Heat’s struggles have prompted some fans to wonder if there could be a big-picture upside to missing the playoffs altogether, a potential lottery ticket to drafting generational talents Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.

But for teams that barely miss the playoffs - including those that lose in the play-in tournament - the odds are very long for finding a rainbow at the end of the draft lottery.

The non-playoff teams - including the four that make the play-in round but don’t advance to the playoffs - are ranked in inverse order of record for purposes of the lottery, which is held in mid-May in advance of the June 22 NBA Draft.

So the four teams that do not advance out of the play-in round aren’t necessarily ranked as the 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th among non-playoff teams, though at least one of the four will be 14th for purposes of the lottery.

The team with the best record among non-playoff teams has only a 0.5 chance to secure the No. 1 pick, expected to be Wembanyama (a sweet-shooting 7-2 center), and a 0.56 chance for the second pick, expected to be Henderson, a dynamic 6-2 guard. That team has a 2.41 percent chance for a top four pick.

The non-playoff team with the second-best record would have a 1 percent chance for the top pick, a 1.1 percent chance for the second pick and a 4.79 percent chance for a top four pick.

The non-playoff team with the third-best record would have a 1.50 percent chance for the top pick, a 1.66 percent chance for the second pick and a 7.12 percent for a top-four pick.

The non-playoff team with the fourth-best record would have a 2 percent chance to pick first, a 2.2 chance at No. 2 and a 13.88 chance for a top-four selection.

Unless the Heat completely unravels down the stretch and then is ousted in the play-in, it’s not very likely that Miami would position itself higher than 11th.

In a scenario where the Heat goes on a long losing streak, Miami could miss the play-in tournament and “rise” as high to the No.7 spot, though that’s unlikely. The No. 7 spot in the lottery comes with a 7.5 chance of the top pick, 7.8 for the second pick and a 31.96 chance for a top three pick.

The teams with the three worst records - likely the Spurs, Rockets, Pistons - each have a 14 percent chance of landing the first pick and a 52.1 percent chance of landing a top four pick.

Having lost six of its past seven, the Heat entered Saturday’s game against Atlanta at 33-31 – 2.5 games behind the sixth-place Nets, 4.5 games behind the No. 5 Knicks, just one-half game ahead of the No. 8 Hawks and two games ahead of the ninth-place Raptors and 10th-place Wizards.

The team that finishes seventh in each conference hosts the No. 8 team, with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The No. 9 and No. 10 teams also meet, with the loser eliminated and the winner advancing to play the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game for the prize of earning the No. 8 seed in the playoffs.

DEFENSIVE DIP

The Heat, which ranked in the top 10 of the league in defensive rating for much of the first half of the season, has been 21st in that category since the All-Star break. Miami is allowing 117.6 points per 100 opponent possessions since the season resumed.

“Quite frankly, I think it’s embarrassing,” Heat TV analyst and former coach Ron Rothstein said of the team’s defensive effort in the first half of Friday’s 122-120 loss to the Knicks, before Miami stiffened defensively in the second half.

By permitting 71 first half points in its past two games (the 76ers and Knicks), the Heat yielded at least 70 points in the first half of consecutive home games for the first time in franchise history.

If you missed it, Jimmy Butler said after the loss: “We really get bored with the process and I can’t tell you why…. For some odd reason, we think it’s going to be easy so we just go out there and go through the motions.”

Miami’s offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) is 23rd since the All Star stoppage, at 106.4. The difference between the Heat’s offensive and defensive ratings is third worst since the break.

Overall, the Heat is last in the league in scoring per game, third worst in three-point shooting (at 33.3) and second worst in overall field goal percentage at 44.

▪ In three-point shooting, every Heat rotation guard except Tyler Herro ranks in the bottom eight players at their positions (point guard or shooting guard) among all NBA qualifiers.

Victor Oladipo, at 30.1 percent on threes, would rank next to last among all shooting guards in that category if he had enough games to qualify.

▪ Among all NBA players who have taken at least 35 shots over their past 15 games, Oladipo has the worst shooting percentage: 27.9 (17 for 61), including 8 for 32 (25 percent) on threes.

In the continued absence of Kyle Lowry, the Heat has cast Oladipo as a primary ball–handler with the second unit, but he has just three assists and eight turnovers in the past four games.

▪ Herro is now 35 for 35 on fourth quarter free throw attempts.

▪ Players guarded by Kevin Love are shooting 52.4 percent (22 for 42) since he joined the Heat.

▪ Lowry missed Saturday’s Atlanta game, his 12th game in a row, with knee soreness. Butler was listed as questionable for the game.