After Bradley Beal trade, here's how to approach Phoenix Suns' title odds
We were only a few days removed from Denver's championship parade before Suns owner Mat Ishbia reminded everybody that the offseason had begun. Phoenix made the first big splash by acquiring Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal in a blockbuster trade that sent Chris Paul to Washington. It’s presumed Paul’s stay in D.C. will be short-lived, and his next destination will continue to put the NBA futures market in flux.
The Beal deal is the first of many dominos to drop in an offseason that could see several high-profile players finding new homes. Draymond Green opted out to become an unrestricted free-agent, Zion Williamson is rumored to be on the move ... Damian Lillard, Jaylen Brown, James Harden, the list goes on and on.
The polarizing trade yielded mixed public reactions. After the initial eye-rolls regarding Kevin Durant’s legacy being attached to “super teams,” the conversation shifted to whether the move puts Phoenix in a position to push Denver out of the NBA’s top spot. As the Suns’ odds shortened to +650 at BetMGM, bettors are left to decipher how much better the Suns’ new “Big 3” really makes them. Are there any bets to make based on the current odds?
Phoenix Suns' Odds at BetMGM
NBA champion +650
Western Conference champion +350
I will get into how swapping Paul with Beal impacts the Suns on the floor, but let’s start with their current position in the betting market. Although closer, they are still behind the defending champion Denver Nuggets, and trail Boston and Milwaukee as well. Few believe this move puts them over the top, mainly because they failed to address some of the glaring weaknesses that Denver exposed in the second round. Beal will relieve the scoring burden that led to Booker and Durant becoming the first duo in postseason history to record 35-5-5 in consecutive games. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Beal averaged over 31.5 points per game before having injuries cut his last two seasons short. Health concerns aside, he will get buckets and give new head coach Frank Vogel the luxury of having a legit scoring threat to pair with Booker when Durant is off the floor. Or vice versa.
The dilemma with betting the Suns
The Phoenix Suns are not done. There are still two primary concerns with their roster post-trade — depth and defense. The solution is likely to come via trade with center Deandre Ayton being the centerpiece, but will it be enough? The Beal deal got them within striking distance, but we will have a much better idea of whether Phoenix really has the firepower to contend once the next shoe drops.
Futures betting is all about timing and price. I don’t think the odds are attractive enough at +650 to take a position on Phoenix with so much player movement still pending around the league. Ishbia struck first, but he also set the bar for competing teams. The current odds imply the Nuggets' probability (+500) to win the title is only 3.34% more than the Suns (+650) right now. That doesn't sound off alarms that I need to bet Phoenix now.
It’s possible the Suns' next move makes them favorites, and we never see them at odds this long again. That’s a risk I am willing to take early in a volatile offseason. The landscape in the Western Conference could easily change with one big move from the Lakers or Warriors, who are both sitting at +1200.
Phoenix is a much better team now, but it was also 13th out of 16 playoff teams in defensive rating during the postseason, and Bradley Beal isn’t making that any better. Unless the Suns acquire some serious defenders, I will have one eye on the totals when the season starts in October. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make. For now, block out the excitement from the Suns, and monitor some of the potential moves to see if there will be value with some of the teams lower on the board.
