Bracketology breakdown: South Carolina tumbles in new Top 25, slips in NCAA projections

After a seven-game win streak, South Carolina men’s basketball lost both its conference matchups last week against Auburn and LSU. While it might not permanently alter the Gamecocks’ path to a March Madness appearance, losing two games did soften the expectations for USC..

South Carolina (21-5, 9-4 SEC) doesn’t play again until Saturday. It remains tied for third in the conference standings with Auburn, with both programs at 9-4 in SEC play.

Here’s a look at what national bracketology predictions are saying about South Carolina’s potential seeding in the NCAA Tournament, as well as its resume opportunities moving forward.

AP Top 25 rankings

South Carolina dropped from No. 11 to No. 20 in the new Associated Press poll on Monday. USC was also No. 20 in the latest USA Today Coaches Poll.

A 40-point road loss to Auburn followed by a one-point home defeat to LSU led to the drop in the rankings. It was the first time USC has lost back-to-back games this year.

South Carolina’s NCAA Tournament projections

South Carolina is an overall six-seed, reaching as high as No. 5 and as low as a No. 9 seed, according the 98 brackets averaged Monday by Bracket Matrix. Other projected six seeds from Bracket Matrix include Kentucky, Texas Tech and Colorado State..

South Carolina wasn’t among the top 16 teams in NCAA selection committee’s mock bracket release Saturday, prior to the LSU game.

The Gamecocks are the No. 6 seed in the Omaha regional, matched up with No. 11 Northwestern in the first round of the tournament, according to CBS Sports and Jerry Palm’s Monday bracketology update. No. 3 Baylor and No. 14 Eastern Washington are in the matchup opposite South Carolina’s projection in Omaha. USC was previously a No. 5 seed by CBS.

ESPN’s bracketology (from Joe Lunardi) hasn’t been updated to reflect South Carolina’s second loss of the week, still listing USC as a No. 6 seed in the Salt Lake City regional.

USC’s March Madness resume

South Carolina’s latest NET ranking is No. 58, dropping eight spots the No. 50 mark it held before the LSU loss.

The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) factors in strength of schedule and the quality of a team’s victories, among other things, and it’s a key metric the selection committee uses to determine the tournament field. Opponent quality is broken into four quadrants, with Quad 1 being the most coveted victory and Quads 3 and 4 being the kind of games a team doesn’t want to lose.

Despite going undefeated in Quad 4 games this season, the victories over Vanderbilt and George Washington pulled USC down in the the latest NET rankings update. The previous Quad 1 wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Grand Canyon still boost their resume, despite dropping to 3-3 in that quadrant after the loss to Auburn on Wednesday.

South Carolina remains undefeated against Quad 2 (5-0) and Quad 4 teams (8-0), and had its second loss to a Quad 3 opponent, LSU, where they’re now 4-2.

Head coach Lamont Paris is 0-1 all-time as a head coach in the NCAA tournament, after falling in the first road at Chattanooga during the 2021-22 season. He’s reached the national championship game during the 2014-15 season as an assistant coach at Wisconsin and Final Four during the 2013-14. He helped lead the Badgers to seven straight tournament appearances, from 2011-17, and made the Division II NCAA Final Four as an assistant at IUP in 2001-02.

Gamecocks’ schedule

South Carolina has its SEC bye week and returns to action at Ole Miss on Saturday. The Gamecocks beat the Rebels, 68-65, at Colonial Life Arena on Feb. 6.

After Ole Miss, the Gamecocks travel to Texas A&M on Feb. 28 before playing two final home games (Florida and Tennessee) and then the regular-season finale March 9 at Mississippi State.

According to BballNet.com, which studies the NET rankings and teams’ wins by quadrant, all five of South Carolina’s final games are projected to be Quad 1 opportunities.

When is the men’s SEC tournament?

The SEC men’s basketball tournament is March 13-17 in Nashville, Tennessee. It will be a single-elimination bracket, with the top four teams receiving first- and second-round byes into the quarterfinals. The championship game will be on Sunday afternoon on ESPN.

When is Selection Sunday?

The March Madness Selection Sunday show is 6 p.m. March 17 and will be broadcast on CBS.

What are the NCAA Tournament dates?

The first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament will be March 21-24. Game times for those rounds will be announced following Selection Sunday.