Boxing betting, odds: Best bets for Gervonta Davis-Ryan Garcia megafight

LAS VEGAS — Bettors face a conundrum Saturday if they choose to wager on the pay-per-view boxing card being staged by Premier Boxing Champions at T-Mobile Arena that features unbeatens Gervonta "Tank" Davis and "King" Ryan Garcia in the main event: There are few opportunities on the undercard, as most bouts have hugely wide odds, but there are almost too many options to bet on the main event.

Forget about betting the undercard because you're going to have to lay huge money. In the co-main event, a super middleweight bout between Dave Morrell and Yamaguchi Falcao, Morrell is a -2000 favorite at BetMGM. Falcao is +950. Perhaps one could find a wager on the over-under of 5.5 rounds, where over is -120 and under is -115. That, though, is a crapshoot.

Bektemir Melkikuziev is a -1800 favorite over Gabriel Rosado, who is +800. And in the PPV opener, Elijah Garcia is a -1400 favorite to defeat Kevin Salgado, who is +700. There's not much to pick on any of those fights.

The main event, however, presents a multitude of fascinating options. Davis is a -245 favorite with Garcia at +190. That's a good number because it's difficult to choose. Garcia is 23-0 with 19 knockouts, has a 4½-inch height advantage and a 3-inch reach advantage. He's quicker than Davis, is great to the body where Davis has been hittable in the past and he has a lethal left hook.

You could do worse than get nearly 2-1 in your favor on a guy like that.

There is, though, always a but and the Davis side is intriguing, as well. Davis is 28-0 with 26 KOs and while he hasn't faced a ton of world-beaters, he's shown enough talent and power that he sits near the pound-for-pound Top 10. He's performed at a high-level on a big stage and when he had an opponent who trash-talked nonstop and vowed to knock him out in the past, he stopped Rolly Romero in the sixth round.

Davis isn't likely to meet anyone quicker or faster than Garcia, but will Garcia be the aggressive fighter he was against, say, Javier Fortuna when he knows that he's not going to be able to walk through the shots that will be coming back? It's unlikely.

BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 09: Ryan Garcia (R) and Gervonta Davis (L) face off during a news conference at The Beverly Hilton on March 09, 2023 in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Sye Williams/Getty Images)
Gervonta Davis (L) is a -245 favorite Saturday to defeat Ryan Garcia (R). Garcia is +190. (Sye Williams/Getty Images) (Sye Williams via Getty Images)

If you like Davis and his crushing power to win, it's not going to be often for the rest of his career you'll be able to get him at this low of a price.

But there are other ways to play this one instead of just taking a side. The over-under is 7.5 rounds, with over a slight favorite at -135. Under is even money.

Davis by decision is +500 and Davis by KO/TKO/DQ is -140. Laying 7-5 on a veteran with a 92.9 KO percentage to win by knockout over an unproven young fighter in his first bout of this magnitude is an attractive play.

Garcia is +800 to win by decision and +300 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. If that number were a little higher — say something like +500 — I might be tempted to roll the dice and take Garcia to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Given where it is, I'll pass that.

There's also plenty of round proposition bets that have interesting numbers, but even if you handicap the fight correctly, that's still no more than playing the lottery.

I could make a case for either man to win this, but I have to go with Davis because he has more experience and has competed at a higher level than Garcia. Garcia has talked so much about knocking Davis out that one wonders if it will take him out of a sensible plan of attack to try to back his bold pre-fight words.

Davis is proven in these situations and though Garcia will be the most talented boxer he's met, he knows how to navigate those waters. So I'll lay the -245 and bet Davis to win.

Given that I think Davis wins, I looked at his last six bouts and they ended in 9, 6, 12, 11, 6 and 12. Four of the six, then, have gone over 7.5 rounds. Davis is a notoriously slow starter and he'll probably take time to adjust to Garcia's hand speed as well as his length.

So I'll lay the -135 and bet the fight goes over 7.5 rounds.

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