Boxing betting: Claressa Shields the smart choice in title fight despite Savannah Marshall's power
Claressa Shields has fought the best women across three weight classes since she turned professional after winning her second gold medal at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. As a pro, Shields has been a massive favorite every time out.
On Saturday in London, though, she's only slightly better than a 6-5 favorite against Savannah Marshall, the only woman ever to have beaten her. Marshall scored an amateur victory over Shields in on May 14, 2012, at the AIBA Women's World Championships in China prior to the Olympic Games that year in London.
Marshall is 12-0 with 10 knockouts and is meeting Shields on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London for the undisputed women's middleweight title. At BetMGM, Shields is a -130 favorite, with Marshall at +105.
Shields was only 17 when she fought Marshall in the amateurs but still believes she won. Shields is vastly better now and has beaten elite opposition in one-sided fashion. Marshall's best hope would seem to be by knockout. Her trainer, Peter Fury, said she's the hardest-hitting woman he's ever seen.
Marshall's power and her amateur victory have, in my view, artificially dropped the odds. If they hadn't met in the amateurs, Shields may be a 2-1 or 3-1 favorite. Shields is the better boxer and has a good chin, though it hasn't been tested often because she's so skilled, she rarely takes clean shots.
Though Fury may be exaggerating Marshall's power, she is a very hard hitter and can take advantage if Shields makes an egregious error. Given that she hasn't done that yet in her career, look for Shields to cruise to victory. Rather than lay the -130, I'm going to play Shields by decision at +120. I'll lay three units on that so I'll risk $300 in order to make a $360 profit on Shields by decision.
Deontay Wilder has that power
Former heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder returns to the ring on Saturday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, for the first time since his loss to Tyson Fury last year in a Fight of the Year battle in Las Vegas.
Wilder is a massive favorite to defeat Robert Helenius at BetMGM. Wilder is -900 to win, while Helenius is +500. Wilder is 42-1-1 with 41 knockouts, his only win by decision coming over Bermane Stiverne in 2015. Helenius is 31-3 but has been stopped by Gerald Washington and Johann Duhaupas. Neither of those two are in the same stratosphere as Wilder is as a puncher.
The big question on Wilder's side is how he's recovered from that brutal fight with Fury, in which he took a lot of punishment and was stopped in the 11th. Helenius is a quality opponent, though there is nothing that he does that will be too much for Wilder.
Every fighter can only take a certain number of punches before the legs go. I doubt highly Wilder is at that point, but that's the only way to make a case for betting Helenius.
Instead of laying -900, I'll bet Wilder by KO at -450. I'll put two units on that, risking $900 with the possibility of a $200 profit if Wilder finishes him inside the distance. Wilder is well-positioned for a massive fight after this and should be motivated. If he's motivated and not carrying scars from the past, he should get Helenius out somewhere between four and seven rounds.
Expect a Haney repeat vs. Kambosos
Devin Haney badly outclassed George Kambosos Jr. when they met in June for the undisputed lightweight title and walked away with the WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF belts. They meet on Saturday in Melbourne, Australia (Sunday in Australia) in a rematch and I don't expect much to change.
At BetMGM, Haney is a -800 favorite to win, with Kambosos at +450. Kambosos isn't even in the same universe as Haney when it comes to boxing acumen, so for Kambosos to win and reclaim his title, he'll have to fight aggressively, make it physical and hope to land enough to wear down Haney and either stop him or drop him a few times.
That's a tall order against a guy as skilled and as quick as Haney. I think that aggressive style could work against Kambosos, because it will open him to shots from Haney he doesn't see. Those are the ones that hurt a fighter the most.
So given that, though the smart play would be Haney -190 by decision, I'm going to play Haney to win by stoppage at +250. So I'll risk $200 with the hope of making a $250 profit.
Other plays for boxing's stacked Saturday
I like Mikaela Mayer by decision at -160. I'll put two units on Mayer, risking $320 for a potential $200 profit.
I like Gurgen Hovhannisyan to win at -300 over Michael Polite Coffie. I'll put a half-unit on Hovhannisyan, so I'll risk $150 to win $50.
