Bowl projections: Is the Pac-12 too good to break its playoff drought?

The Pac-12 may actually be too good to get a team in the College Football Playoff in 2023.

Seriously.

The final year of the Pac-12 as we know it has produced what could be the best conference in college football. But that depth at the top could come at the price of extending the league’s College Football Playoff drought.

No Pac-12 team has made the four-team playoff since Washington at the end of the 2016 season and the Huskies look to be the top team in the conference this season. No. 5 Washington is 6-0 after beating No. 9 Oregon in Week 7 and boasts the Heisman favorite in QB Michael Penix Jr.

But the Pac-12 is a gauntlet this season, especially for the Huskies. Five teams are currently ranked in the top 18 of the AP Top 25 and Washington faces three of the other four in that group over a daunting November stretch. After games against Arizona State and Stanford, Washington ends the season at No. 18 USC, vs. No. 14 Utah, at No. 12 Oregon State and against Washington State.

No Pac-12 frontrunner has what you can consider to be an easy schedule, either. USC faces Utah on Saturday and also plays No. 9 Oregon and No. 25 UCLA. Oregon still has Utah, USC and Oregon State.

It’s a setup for disaster for the conference’s playoff hopes. The best-case scenario, of course, is that two teams emerge over the second half of the season with just one regular-season loss and meet in the Pac-12 title game for the right to advance to the playoff. The more realistic situation may be a host of 10-2 and 9-3 teams. Or, in true Pac-12 fashion, a matchup between an 11-1 team and a 10-2 team in the conference title game with the two-loss team emerging as the victor.

And remember, no two-loss team has ever made the four-team College Football Playoff.

The Pac-12’s excellence at the top is why we don’t have Washington, Oregon or anyone else in the playoff in our first set of bowl projections. Quite frankly, we hope that changes by the end of the season. The Pac-12 deserves to end the streak before it disperses. But we’re hedging our bets at the moment.

Here’s our first look at what the bowl lineup could look like at the end of the season. These projections will be updated weekly and James Madison (6-0) is included in our first set of predictions because we’re not sure there will be enough 6-6 teams to fill out the bowl slate.

New Year's Six Bowls

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29)

Texas vs. Washington

Peach Bowl (Dec. 30)

Penn State vs. Alabama

Orange Bowl (Dec. 30)

North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)

Air Force vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)

Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)

Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Other Bowls

Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16)

Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 16)

Liberty vs. Troy

Cure Bowl (Dec. 16)

Colorado State vs. Appalachian State

New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 16)

New Mexico State vs. Utah State

LA Bowl (Dec. 16)

Fresno State vs. Washington State

Independence Bowl (Dec. 16)

West Virginia vs. Arizona

Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 18)

Marshall vs. UTSA

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19)

Houston vs. Texas State

Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 21)

Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22)

Mississippi State vs. James Madison

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23)

Auburn vs. Navy

Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23)

Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia State

Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23)

SMU vs. Texas Tech

Potato Bowl (Dec. 23)

Toledo vs. Wyoming

68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 23)

Ohio vs. South Alabama

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 23)

Utah vs. Wisconsin

Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 23)

Boise State vs. Memphis

Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)

Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois

First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26)

BYU vs. San Diego State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26)

TCU vs. Nebraska

Military Bowl (Dec. 27)

Tulane vs. Louisville

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27)

Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27)

Miami vs. UCLA

Texas Bowl (Dec. 27)

Kansas vs. Texas A&M

Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28)

Virginia Tech vs. South Florida

Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28)

Syracuse vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28)

Duke vs. Oklahoma State

Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28)

Kansas State vs. USC

Gator Bowl (Dec. 29)

Clemson vs. Florida

Sun Bowl (Dec. 29)

NC State vs. Oregon State

Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29)

Iowa State vs. Tennessee

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)

Maryland vs. Missouri

Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30)

Eastern Michigan vs. UNLV

ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 1)

Notre Dame vs. LSU

Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)

Iowa vs. Ole Miss