Bowl projections: Can Liberty challenge Air Force and Tulane for a New Year's Six bowl?

Liberty moved to 8-0 on Tuesday night with a 42-29 win over Western Kentucky.

The win clinched a spot in the Conference USA title game for the Flames as they look headed toward an undefeated season. But for as good as Liberty has been so far this season, the Flames’ chances of heading to a New Year’s Six bowl game hinge more on the failures of other Group of Five teams than their own success.

No. 19 Air Force is the clear frontrunner for the Group of Five’s spot in the New Year’s Six through the first eight weeks of the season. The Falcons are 7-0 and have allowed just 94 points so far. With games against Colorado State, Army and Hawaii upcoming, Air Force could be undefeated going into a matchup with 6-1 UNLV in Week 12.

No. 22 Tulane, meanwhile, leads the American Athletic Conference at 6-1 overall. The Green Wave should be big favorites in their next three games before a trip to Florida Atlantic and a home game against UTSA to end the season.

Both Air Force and Tulane have played much tougher schedules than the Flames have so far this season. Tulane’s only loss is to Ole Miss. Liberty’s best win is a 31-13 victory over a Jacksonville State team that’s in its first season at the top level of college football. And the best team remaining on the Flames' schedule is a 4-3 Old Dominion squad.

Simply put, Liberty’s schedule is so weak that Tulane and UNLV likely have to lose once and Air Force has to lose twice for the Flames to even be considered for a New Year’s Six bowl game with a 13-0 season. And if Liberty slips up over the last five games, its chances of a big bowl game are nonexistent.

That’s why we still have Liberty projected to the New Orleans Bowl in our latest set of bowl projections and we probably aren’t moving off that anytime soon. The Flames will likely end up against a top-tier Group of Five team in an ESPN-owned bowl at the end of the season unless all heck breaks loose in the AAC and the Mountain West.

Here are our last pre-College Football Playoff rankings bowl projections. Jacksonville State jumps into the postseason field this week as we're not sure there will be enough eligible six-win teams to fill all the bowl spots.

New Year's Six Bowls

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29)
Texas vs. Washington

Peach Bowl (Dec. 30)
Penn State vs. Alabama

Orange Bowl (Dec. 30)
North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)
Air Force vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)
Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)
Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Other Bowls

Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16)
Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 16)
Liberty vs. Troy

Cure Bowl (Dec. 16)
Colorado State vs. Appalachian State

New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 16)
New Mexico State vs. Utah State

LA Bowl (Dec. 16)
Fresno State vs. Arizona

Independence Bowl (Dec. 16)
West Virginia vs. Washington State

Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 18)
Marshall vs. Jacksonville State

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19)
Houston vs. Texas State

Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 21)
Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22)
Mississippi State vs. James Madison

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23)
Auburn vs. Navy

Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia State

Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23)
SMU vs. Baylor

Potato Bowl (Dec. 23)
Northern Illinois vs. Boise State

68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 23)
Ohio vs. South Alabama

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 23)
UCLA vs. Wisconsin

Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 23)
UNLV vs. Memphis

Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)
Nebraska vs. Toledo

First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26)
BYU vs. UTSA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26)
TCU vs. Maryland

Military Bowl (Dec. 27)
Tulane vs. Louisville

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27)
Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27)
Clemson vs. USC

Texas Bowl (Dec. 27)
Kansas vs. Texas A&M

Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28)
Boston College vs. South Florida

Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28)
Syracuse vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28)
Duke vs. Oklahoma State

Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kansas State vs. Utah

Gator Bowl (Dec. 29)
Clemson vs. Florida

Sun Bowl (Dec. 29)
NC State vs. Oregon State

Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29)
Iowa State vs. Tennessee

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Minnesota vs. Missouri

Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30)
Eastern Michigan vs. Wyoming

ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 1)
Notre Dame vs. LSU

Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
Iowa vs. Ole Miss