Where Clemson and South Carolina football stand in updated bowl projections

Chapel Fowler

As the Clemson football team keeps slipping, so do its bowl projections — which, at this point, are far from a guarantee. And South Carolina’s nowhere to be found in the current bowl conversation.

Week 9 bowl predictions from various national media outlets paint a grim picture for the state of South Carolina’s two Power Five programs, who’ve combined to lose six straight games and are 1-8 in road/neutral-site games.

That’s reality when Clemson is 4-4 and 2-4 in the ACC, having lost two games in a row, and USC is 2-6 and 1-5 in the SEC with four straight conference losses.

247Sports is most optimistic about the Tigers, placing them in the Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl in San Diego, California against Oregon State and former Clemson starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei in Petco Park, home of the MLB’s San Diego Padres

But that second-tier placement, which pits an ACC team against a Pac-12 team annually, would only happen if coach Dabo Swinney’s program can go at least 2-2 over its last four games against No. 12 Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and South Carolina and reach six wins.

Last year’s Holiday Bowl pitted 9-4 UNC against 9-3 Oregon. The 2021 iteration of the bowl (which was canceled due to COVID-19) featured 9-3 N.C. State and 8-4 UCLA — so Clemson would likely need to finish the regular season at 8-4 or 7-5 to make that higher-tier bowl. That means going 4-0 or 3-1 over its last four games.

Predictions from The Action Network and CBS Sports still have coach Dabo Swinney’s program in the bowl field, but they’re projecting placements in the Dec. 29 Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas against Oregon State (Action Network) or Utah (CBS Sports).

That’s another bowl generally reserved for an ACC vs. Pac-12 matchup with recent games between 8-4 Pitt and 9-3 UCLA in 2022 and 7-5 Washington State and 8-4 Central Michigan in 2021 played in the Sun Bowl, home of the UTEP football program.

ESPN’s bowl projections included Clemson in its “Team that needs to right the ship” category, with Mark Schlabach writing of the Tigers: “Clemson has won two national titles and eight ACC crowns under coach Dabo Swinney. But if the Tigers don’t turn it around quickly, they might be in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2004.”

Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura of ESPN both have Clemson playing in the Dec. 27 Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland against SMU (Bonagura) or Memphis (Schlabach). That bowl, played in Navy’s home stadium, is generally an annual ACC-AAC matchup.

Last year’s Military Bowl had 8-4 Duke and 9-4 UCF, and the 2019 bowl — the most recent before 2022, due to the coronavirus — had 6-6 UNC and 8-4 Temple.

Oct 28, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer and assistant coach Pete Lembo work the sideline during the second quarter in a game against Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 28, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer and assistant coach Pete Lembo work the sideline during the second quarter in a game against Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-USA TODAY Sports

Can South Carolina make a bowl?

Coach Shane Beamer’s program, at 2-6, isn’t included in any of those five bowl projections across four national websites.

The Gamecocks would need to win out against FCS Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Clemson to reach the six-win threshold. USC has made a bowl game in each of its first two seasons under Beamer.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Clemson a 34.5% chance to beat No. 12 Notre Dame, an 83.8% chance against Georgia Tech, a 59.3% chance against UNC (which has lost two straight games and gone from No. 10 to unranked) and a 67% chance against the Gamecocks in the teams’ annual Palmetto Bowl rivalry game.

As for South Carolina, the ESPN FPI says the Gamecocks have an 80% chance to beat JSU, an 84.9% chance to beat Vanderbilt (the only team below them in the SEC Eastern Division), a 55.8% chance to beat Kentucky and a 33% chance to beat Clemson. USC is the only team in the FBS to close the season with four straight home games.

Clemson’s projected record in the ESPN FPI is now 6.5-5.5, essentially 7-5, and South Carolina’s is 4.5-7.5, essentially 4-8.

In other words, there’s a chance the Tigers will be fighting for bowl eligibility on their Nov. 25 trip to Williams-Brice Stadium.

Clemson football Week 9 bowl projections

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