Boise State men’s basketball vs. San Jose State: How to watch, prediction and odds

The Boise State men’s basketball team has won 10 in a row over San Jose State and owns a 37-3 advantage in the all-time series.

It’s as close to a gimme as you can get in the Mountain West.

But the Broncos (10-4, 0-1 MW) aren’t expecting a cake walk when they host San Jose State at 7 p.m. Tuesday at ExtraMile Arena. The Spartans (11-4, 2-0) are a different team, according to Boise State.

“They’ve got experience, and they’ve got an experienced coach. It starts with that,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said. “He’s worked hard to get the right guys there and to keep them. He’s kept some good ones.”

Picked to finish second-to-last in the Mountain West preseason poll, San Jose State enters Tuesday’s game with more wins (11) than all of last season (8). The Spartans are coming off a 75-72 overtime victory against UNLV, ending a 10-game losing streak to the Rebels.

It marked the first time that San Jose State opened conference play with a win since joining the Mountain West in 2013. They then added a 78-70 win over Colorado State on Saturday.

The Spartans, who played the second-easiest nonconference schedule among Mountain West teams, according to KenPom.com, last had a winning season in 2010-11.

“It wasn’t like we went out and banged a whole bunch of 3s or anything. It was just a rock-solid effort. We withstood a big run from them in the second half,” San Jose State coach Tim Miles told The Associated Press after the UNLV win. “We’ve lost a couple of those this year. So to be able to fight back against a team the caliber of UNLV and get over the top and win, that says a lot about the resolve of our players.”

The Spartans returned four starters — Omari Moore, Alvaro Cardenas, Trey Anderson and Tibet Görener — from a team that went 8-23 last season and lost in overtime to Fresno State in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament.

Miles predicted after that loss that the Spartans would be an improved team in 2022-23.

“Enjoy it while it lasts,” Miles said, “because we’re going to get bigger, stronger and better.”

In addition to having four returning starters, the Spartans added transfers Sage Tolbert III from Temple and Robert Vaihola from Fresno State.

Moore, a junior guard and 2021-22 All-Mountain West honorable mention honoree, leads the team at 15.0 points per game, while Tolbert ranks second at 9.9 points per game with a team-leading 8.3 rebounds.

“They’re kind of a microcosm of this league,” Rice said. “Everybody is good. ... We haven’t gone through the gantlet yet and all that, but I swear I think from top to bottom it’s the best it’s ever been.”

SAN JOSE STATE AT BOISE STATE

When: 7 p.m. Tuesday

Where: ExtraMile Arena, Boise

TV: Mountain West Network (broncosports.com/mwn)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)

Records: Boise State 10-4, 0-1 MW; San Jose State 11-4, 2-0

Series: Boise State leads the all-time series 37-3, including a 76-60 win in Boise last season.

KenPom rating: Boise State 62, San Jose State 129

KenPom & ESPN predictions

Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.

According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 79% chance of beating San Jose State. His score prediction is a 67-58 BSU victory.

ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Boise State has an 86.6% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 11.1.