Boise State men’s basketball vs. 17-2 New Mexico: How to watch, prediction and odds

Over the course of its five-game winning streak, the Boise State men’s basketball team has consistently limited the opposing team’s top scoring guard.

The Broncos will need that trend to continue Friday night when they face New Mexico at 9 p.m. Mountain time at The Pit in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

The Lobos boast three of the Mountain West’s top five scorers in junior guard Jamal Mashburn Jr. (No. 1, 18.3 ppg), senior guard Jaelen House (No. 2, 17.4 ppg) and graduate transfer forward Morris Udeze (No. 5, 15.7 ppg).

The good news is, defensive dominance has been the Broncos’ calling card so far this season. Boise State is tops in the Mountain West and 16th in the nation in scoring defense, holding opponents to an average of 60.6 points per game. The Broncos are also among the nation’s best in field goal percentage defense (No. 25, 39.289%), 3-point percentage defense (No. 27, 29.4%) and rebound margin (No. 37, plus 5).

But in the Broncos’ two losses before their current winning streak, Boise State gave up 10 3-pointers apiece in setbacks against Santa Clara and Nevada. That’s when coach Leon Rice challenged his team to get better.

“We had back-to-back games of teams making 10 3’s ... and a lot of them were uncontested,” Rice said. “That’s a big cornerstone of our defense. I think we got better on our fundamentals of what we’re about defensively.”

Since those losses, the Broncos have not given up more than seven 3-pointers to an opposing team. They held San Jose State to just four triples, and then played lockdown defense on Utah State guard Steven Ashworth, who at the time led the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage. He finished with just four points against the Broncos.

Against UNLV, Wyoming and a rematch with Nevada, Boise State held each team’s top guard to just 12 points, below the season averages for UNLV’s Elijah Harkless (16.4 ppg), Wyoming’s Hunter Maldonado (13.4 ppg) and Nevada’s Kenan Blackshear (14.6 ppg).

“Going back to after the Nevada (loss), I really challenged them on some things,” Rice said. “We’re either gonna get better at this or we have no chance in this league. And they got better at a lot of those things. That’s a huge, huge indicator of a good team.”

Friday’s game is currently a Quad 1 opportunity for the Broncos, who are ranked No. 19 in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings. New Mexico checks in at No. 31 after starting the season with 14 straight wins.

“House might be one of the quickest guards in the country. He gets from one end of the floor to the other maybe faster than anybody,” Rice said. “He gets them running, he gets them going.

“Mashburn has got an array of ways to score. His mid-range is as good as anyone’s in the country. They both can get you from all three levels and they both can put so much foul pressure on you. They’re slippery and creative and just great basketball guards. They’re just ballers.”

BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO

When: 9 p.m. Mountain time Friday

Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, New Mexico

TV: Fox Sports 1

Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)

Records: Boise State 15-4, 5-1 MW; New Mexico 17-2, 4-2

Series: New Mexico leads the all-time series 12-8

KenPom rating: Boise State 23, New Mexico 49

KenPom & ESPN predictions

Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.

According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 47% chance of beating New Mexico. His score prediction is a 72-71 New Mexico victory.

ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: New Mexico has a 52.1% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 0.6.