Boise State fans guide: How to watch, what to watch for in huge game vs. Air Force

Air Force brings its triple-option offense to Boise this week with a Mountain West championship berth up for grabs.

The Falcons started the season 8-0 but have lost three in a row to Army, Hawaii and UNLV. Boise State has won five of the past six games in the series, and needs a win Friday (2 p.m., FS1) at Albertsons Stadium for a chance to play in the conference title game.

The Falcons need the same.

“You can almost feel the extra tension in the air when it’s Boise week,” Air Force senior offensive lineman Wesley Ndago said. “The coaches are excited to go after it. Boise State’s always the leading Mountain West program every year it seems like, so just for us to be able to go out there and take a shot at them ... and our best effort, it means a lot for us.”

Air Force is well-known for its potent ground attack. The Falcons led the nation in rushing yards per game in 2020 (305.7), 2021 (327.7) and 2022 (326.7), and they rank second in the country this season at 282.09 yards. The Falcons sparingly turn to the air — completing 44-of-82 pass attempts for 929 yards and six TDs — but they can be effective when doing so.

Air Force is 14th in the nation in passing efficiency with a 160.78 mark, and it averages an NCAA-best 21.11 yards per completion, because most throws surprise the defense and go for chunk plays. The Falcons also know how to eat up the clock, ranking sixth nationally in time of possession at 33:12 minutes per game.

“They’re gonna run the football ... and they’re going to take their time and take their shots,” Boise State interim head coach Spencer Danielson said. “That’s a really good football team. Like I said, prior to them getting the injury bug and dropping the last couple games, I mean, that’s one of the top football teams in the entire country. We know the test that’s waiting Friday afternoon.”

Air Force’s defense has held 14 of its past 18 opponents to 21 points or fewer over the past two seasons. The Falcons have limited opponents to 17.1 points per game this season, which is No. 1 in the Mountain West and 13th in the nation. They’ve fared even better in total defense, allowing just 265.3 yards per game, a mark that is fourth-best in FBS.

“We know when we go up there, everybody there is going to be against us, just being in Boise on that blue turf,” Air Force defensive end Jayden Thiergood said. “Especially with the game at stake like this, we just realize that we just have to go there with a chip on our shoulder and just play our game.”

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Which Air Force team shows up?

Yes, the Falcons have had major injuries — to QB Zac Larrier, leading rusher Emmanuel Michel and key receiver Dane Kinamon. Larrier is out this week. But all three of those guys played in a horrid 23-3 loss to an Army team that was 2-6 at the time. The Falcons had six turnovers in that game.

Then they all basically missed a 27-13 loss to a weak Hawaii team — Larrier played very briefly — in a game that featured four Air Force turnovers. And they missed last week’s 31-27 loss to UNLV with first place in the Mountain West on the line. The Falcons had only one turnover in that game, showing how vital it is for a team to take care of the ball when it’s not meant to play from behind.

All of the turnovers in those games put too much stress on an Air Force defense that is still the No. 1 unit in the Mountain West statistically but, as those scores show, is allowing 27 points per game during the losing streak.

With a berth in the conference title game on the line — forget about the computer polls and tiebreakers if San Jose State beats UNLV to create a three-way tie, logic dictates that the winner here will play for the championship — one would imagine Air Force will look more like the team that started 8-0 and was battling hard against the Rebels.

Is this the kind of opponent Boise State’s defense needs?

Generally speaking, gearing up to stop Air Force’s triple-option offense is a nightmare, and the Falcons are rarely stymied.

But perhaps this is actually a game tailor-made for the Broncos. Their problem has been allowing receivers to run free, watching quarterbacks complete big passing play after big passing play, and seeing speedy players run by defenders. Those aren’t things to worry about this week.

Yes, the Falcons will try to fool you and pop the big pass play, but they throw for only 84 yards per game and have been ineffective the past few weeks. This is a game where Boise State’s defense can be hyper-focused on the triple-option, crowd guys to the line of scrimmage to limit options, disrupt in the backfield, charge the run to hit hard — looking at you, Alexander Teubner, Seyi Oladipo and Andrew Simpson — and not have to guard against three- and four-receiver sets.

Remember, the Broncos gave up just 175 rushing yards to Air Force last season. It can be done. And this is a defense that can rack up tackles for loss, something that’s important in slowing the option.

Can the Broncos outgain the Falcons on the ground?

Boise State’s recipe for success has been to turn loose George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, and rely on what has become an outstanding offensive line. So it will be strength vs. strength when the offense is on the field, trying to puncture an Air Force D that yields just 88 rushing yards per game. The Broncos average 210 yards a game on the ground.

It’s quite conceivable that with the best two running backs on the field Friday, the Broncos outrush the Falcons. They do that and they win. It isn’t the only path to victory, of course, but it would mean that they have not only worn down the Air Force defense, but also kept the triple-option attack on the sideline, where it can’t eat up the clock with long possessions that tire out Boise State’s D.

AIR FORCE AT BOISE STATE

When: 2 p.m. Friday

Where: Albertsons Stadium (36,363, FieldTurf), Boise

TV: Fox Sports 1 (Dan Hellie, Petros Papadakis)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 6-5, 5-2 MW; Air Force 8-3, 5-2 MW

Series: Boise State leads the all-time series 7-4. The Broncos won 19-14 last season in USAFA, Colorado.

Vegas line: Boise State by 6.5

Weather: High of 45 degrees, 9% chance of rain, 8 mph wind

THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE

Broncos among 4 teams in race for Mountain West title game. Here’s how it breaks down

Rushing attack, lack of sacks show Boise State’s offensive line is ‘playing really well’