Top snowfall totals could reach 44 inches from monster storm

A monster nor'easter continued its slow crawl up the Eastern Seaboard of the United States on Monday night, pounding the region with heavy snow and high winds, snarling travel, canceling flights and disrupting coronavirus vaccination efforts in numerous cities. AccuWeather forecasters had been monitoring for a major storm to develop since early last week, and had advised people across the eastern U.S. to "buckle up" for a long-duration event. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of up to 44 inches of snow is possible, along with a slew of different hazards.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were in effect across the Northeast as snow and ice began breaking out across the region Sunday, and many of these weather alerts remain in effect due to the slow-moving nature of the storm and prolonged snowfall.

The heaviest snow moved into New York City on Monday, where 8 inches of snow fell in just 6 hours in Central Park, making Monday the snowiest day in the Big Apple since 2016. The 14.8 inches that fell in total on Monday shattered the daily record of 9.8 inches set in 1934. Snowfall will continue to pile up in the city, at a lighter rate, into Tuesday night.

By daybreak Monday, a few inches to a foot of snow had fallen across a broad swath stretching from the southern Appalachians to eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. Higher amounts were observed in the mountains of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland.

The cities of Philadelphia and Baltimore both saw daily maximum snowfall records fall on Sunday as totals cleared previous record highs set decades ago. In Philly, 3 inches of snow was recorded at Philadelphia International Airport, tying a record of 3 inches previously set in 1949, according to the National Weather Service (NWC). Initial reports from the NWS indicated the record in Philadelphia had been broken, but, upon further review, the NWS confirmed the daily record had been tied. Baltimore's daily record of 3.7 inches had stood since 1985 but was also broken on Sunday after 3.8 inches were recorded at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport.

On Sunday night, New Jersey and New York City issued state of emergencies and New York City put travel restrictions in place to keep nonessential personnel off the roads.

This first wave of snow was a result of a storm that swept through the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the weekend, unleashing major disruptions in places like Chicago. This initial storm started to weaken Sunday night.

But, as AccuWeather meteorologists predicted days ago, a secondary storm began to take shape off the southeastern coast of Virginia late Sunday and that storm continued to strengthen into Monday night.

"The coastal storm has become the dominant storm of the two, strengthening into a full-blown nor'easter along the Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Danny Pydynowski said.

Some locations in the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, where snow created slippery travel on Sunday, can expect rounds of snow to last all the way into Tuesday. Part of New England will face storm impacts into Wednesday.

"This will allow for snowfall totals to really build up over large areas of the Northeast," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio explained.

By Monday night, 1-2 feet of snow had been observed from the mountains of Maryland to central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and Long Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

It took upwards of 36 hours for interior areas to receive a foot or more of snowfall, but areas closer to the coast that were hammered with the heaviest snowfall saw it pile up quickly.

Pydynowski compared the storm impacts for inland areas to coastal locations to the fable of The Hare and the Tortoise. "Many areas farther inland have been like the tortoise, slowly but steadily building up impressive snowfall totals. Coastal areas have been like the hare, with impressive snowfall totals piling up very quickly."

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"As the storm continues to strengthen and funnel moisture in from the Atlantic Ocean, areas near the coast where all or mostly snow falls may experience a snowfall rate of 1-3 inches per hour for a time," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

That type of snowfall rate can challenge road crews to keep up with a high potential for motorists to become stranded.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect widespread snowfall totals of 1-3 feet where the heaviest snow falls. A bullseye of up to 44 inches could target a small area just north and west of New York City, into the Pocono and Catskill mountains.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect New York City to receive 1-2 feet by the time the snow winds down. Boston will also see significant snowfall from the storm, about 6-12 inches, even if there is some mixing for a brief time. Mixed precipitation in Boston will limit the amount of blowing and drifting of snow along the coast, but areas farther inland over Massachusetts and over interior southern New Hampshire and Maine can experience whiteout conditions at times.

Some milder air higher in the atmosphere could cause precipitation to change to a wintry mix, including sleet, then perhaps rain near the coast. This scenario is most likely near Cape Cod as well as into Down East Maine.

Along with the significant snowfall, powerful winds will develop near the coast. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph will create blizzard conditions at times. An AccuWeather StormMax™ of 65 mph is forecast in eastern Long Island, New York as well as on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where rain will mix in for a time.

Travel in areas from Allentown and Scranton, Pennsylvania, to Trenton, New Jersey, New York City and Worcester, Massachusetts, will remain extremely difficult into Tuesday.

"People attempting to travel in this swath, including along interstates 80, 84, 87 and 95 will be at risk for becoming stranded due to a rapid snowfall rate as well as blowing and drifting of snow on the ground," Sosnowski said.

The strong winds blowing onshore will also lead to some coastal flooding and beach erosion from the rough surf it will generate. Localized power outages will also be possible where the strongest gusts occur from any downed tree limbs or power lines.

As the storm reaches peak strength Tuesday just off of the New England coast, the heaviest snow will also begin to shift off into northern New England and Atlantic Canada. However, lingering areas of light-to-moderate snow will still plague the Northeast and the wind field will also expand.

"Much of the snow that piled up in interior areas was not accompanied by much wind Sunday and Monday," Rossio said. "However, on Tuesday, areas all the way through the mid-Atlantic into the western Ohio Valley will see a gusty breeze develop."

This will prolong impacts from the storm in these parts by creating areas of blowing snow. "Much of the snow that falls across these areas will become light and fluffy by the end of the storm, so any wind will be able to blow it around pretty easily," Rossio added.

Travel delays along major thoroughfares like interstates 70, 76, 80, 81 and 90 could be extended through Tuesday with blowing snow recovering plowed roads in open areas. Farther east in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, some issues with blowing snow could persist all the way into Wednesday.

"It really won't be until Thursday, when high pressure briefly moves in ahead of the next storm forming in the central U.S., until folks in the Northeast will really be able to put a wrap on this nor'easter," Rossio said.

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