Binge, Stream and Skip: Fantasy football Week 14 viewer's guide

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 14 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

BINGE

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS

The Eagles just dropped a game to the 49ers last week and put their path to the NFC’s top seed in jeopardy. The division-rival Cowboys are the top beneficiary of this slip. With a win, the Cowboys will put themselves in striking distance of winning the NFC East. It’s a tricky spot for the Eagles. The Cowboys have been lights-out at home this season.

With the state of the Eagles' stop unit, Jalen Hurts and Co. are going to have to win a shootout against the Cowboys to take this one. Dallas is coming off a troubling defensive effort against Seattle last week. The Cowboys run single-high coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, a look that A.J. Brown typically shreds. With tight end Dallas Goedert expected back this week, we could see coverage open up for Brown, if what Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said this week is any indication.

Brown is in a great spot but it’s up to this passing game to execute. Hurts has not played as well this season as he did in 2022 and doesn’t appear to be completely healthy. Still, this Eagles team is so talented and we know Hurts can access his ceiling at any moment. You can’t count them out in this spot.

Biggest Storyline: Dak Prescott's MVP push. The Cowboys quarterback is now +300 at BetMGM to take home the MVP award this season, tied with Brock Purdy for the best odds. There are no two ways around it or qualifiers needed: Dak has played lights-out football over the last month. He’s playing on time, knifing teams downfield and consistently getting to the correct read. He’s playing like a top-level passer and his team is elite.

Those are the guys who win MVPs. His case will be even stronger if Dallas wins this Week 14 contest.

Stat you need to know:

Quietly, the Eagles' lack of ability to consistently mount a run game has been a thorn in the offense’s side. It’s tough to find a root cause. Even if his excellent September is a distant memory, D’Andre Swift is a quality back and this remains a dominant offensive line. Perhaps defenses just don’t respect Jalen Hurts as a scrambler right now, creating a trickle-down impact on the run game.

Player in a smash spot: Brandin Cooks. CeeDee Lamb has led the NFL in receiving yards since Week 9 and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t smash in this game. However, getting him fully unleashed has activated secondary pieces like Cooks and Jake Ferguson. Cooks scored three times in that stretch, and I’d chase his ceiling against this secondary.

BUFFALO BILLS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

We’ve seen these two teams match up many times over the last few years but not ever in their current forms. So often the juggernauts of the conference or on the forefront of offensive football, both the Chiefs and Bills enter Week 14 in different stages.

The Chiefs offense has been one of the most significant talking points of the season. Patrick Mahomes is in creation mode most of the time and has forced things far more often than normal because of the state of his receiver room. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a quality player but has only shined consistently on over-the-middle routes and in the YAC game. There are no compatible downfield threats, including Travis Kelce, who has looked just a step slower this season.

The run game has been a bright spot lately but that may be in question with Isiah Pacheco being ruled out this week. If he sits, the clock will turn back to Jerick McKinnon. He’s titled fantasy leagues in the past but it’s worth wondering if this offense has enough buoyancy to allow for a passing-down back to climb that high again.

For all the Chiefs' troubles — mostly champagne problems — the Bills come into Week 14 truly on the ropes. Off-field distractions like Sean McDermott drama and Von Miller being charged with felony assault cloud the picture for a team that desperately needs to win now. We all know the Bills have the potential to make noise if they get into the postseason, but they have a mere 20% chance to pull it off, per the New York Times playoff predictor. Coming out of their bye, all the screws need to be tightened for this team to get where it needs to go.

Our memories of those great Mahomes vs. Josh Allen battles are of two titans operating at the height of the sport. The quarterbacks are playing great football, perhaps not at their peaks but still at a high-level capacity, but questions across the board for both teams make this an unusual meeting between the Bills and Chiefs.

Biggest Storyline: Are there even more cracks showing up for the Chiefs? While the offense has been lost in the wilderness at times this season, the defense has been a bankable certainty for Kansas City. Overall, I still believe in that unit but it’s worth noting they rank 26th in EPA per play allowed since returning from their bye. The opponents in that stretch are a mixed bag with the Eagles, Raiders and Packers on the ledger. The output against the Packers was particularly troubling as Jordan Love solved most of the problems that the unit tried to create. Love has developed into a strong player but that was concerning. The Chiefs need this defense to be an elite unit against the Bills.

Stat you need to know: The Bills have scored 33 points per game since Joe Brady took over. Twenty-four-point-six in the five games prior.

Player in a smash spot: Gabe Davis. Ah, the glorious pursuit of “The Gabe Davis Week.” It’s not a journey for the faint of heart.

A few weeks ago we saw the Chiefs use L’Jarius Snead as a shadow corner against Davante Adams. That effectively limited the Raiders' No. 1 wideout to 73 yards but did permit Jakobi Meyers to go for 79 and a touchdown against softer coverage. While Meyers is a very different type of receiver from Davis, the same logic can be applied to this matchup.

If Stefon Diggs becomes the overwhelming focus of the Chiefs defense, which is essentially the case every week in any game, Davis can run free on the other side. This could also bring Khalil Shakir into the mix. I’ve been really impressed with the slot receiver’s play of late and he should remain a big part of the offense, as long as they don’t return to the two-tight end focus we saw when Dawson Knox was active.

LOS ANGELES RAMS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

As the Rams continue their recent surge and push toward the playoffs, they run into a possibly tough stumbling block with the Ravens coming off a bye week. Matthew Stafford was living on the wrong side of touchdown variance earlier this season, but has swung back in a positive direction with seven passing scores in the last two weeks. Los Angeles has cleared 35 points in both contests.

The Ravens are a totally different ballgame, even if Stafford's Week 13 opponent, the Browns, were one of the top units to start the season. Baltimore allows the lowest passing touchdown rate (2.2%), adjusted yards per attempt (4.8) and leads the NFL with 47 sacks.

That defense has made it so that the Ravens don’t need to light up the scoreboard every week but we’re still deeply invested in deciphering this unit’s ceiling. This is especially true right now as they come out of their bye week with multiple rookies possibly on the rise.

Biggest Storyline: Rams' Big-Three Offense. Coming into the season, we knew that the Rams would be a light team; injuries could cast this offense asunder. Given the state of their roster, they couldn’t really weather through absences of their best players.

Of course, we didn’t know that two of their best players would be Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua, but here we are.

The most proven player of this group, Cooper Kupp, is the one who is struggling to get going the most right now. Despite his resume and Stafford’s history with Kupp, he has not cleared 50 yards since Week 6. Some of that is how Kupp looks right now as a separator as injuries mount but much of it is due to Puka Nacua cementing himself as the top player on the offense. With Nacua and Williams giving Stafford legitimate options in the passing game, they don’t have to revolve around Kupp as they did in a lost 2022 campaign. It’s been great for the team but bad for Kupp’s fantasy output.

Stat you need to know: Ravens RB snaps in Week 12: Keaton Mitchell 32 (11 opportunities), Justice Hill 20 (six opportunities), Gus Edwards 18 (nine opportunities). Week 14 should provide us with an honest answer regarding Mitchell’s future. Was this the sign of a backfield takeover or just a blip? There's no denying the rookie has real juice that neither Edwards nor Hill brings to the table. He needs to earn trust in critical situations and pass protection. While he may never fully ice out those other vets, he can be RB2-viable in this offense if he simply leads the team in snaps going forward.

Player in a smash spot: Zay Flowers. The rookie has garnered 18 targets and three rush attempts in his two games without Mark Andrews. Flowers has more untapped potential than we’ve seen in his usage this season. Reception Perception data shows us he can win against man coverage on critical intermediate routes. The Ravens simply need to boost him higher in the progression and get him the ball on those plays. Coming out of the bye is the perfect time to make that change.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

We were already treated to this matchup not long ago when the 49ers dominated Seattle at home on Thanksgiving. That could prove to be instructive for this matchup, but Seattle has to hope it’s not. Per the New York Times model, the Seahawks now have a mere 23% chance to make the playoffs. Last year was a fun, surprising run for Pete Carroll and Co. Missing the postseason in Act Two with this young core laden with solid veterans would cause some difficult questions to crop up in the offseason.

Both sides of the ball have underperformed. Seattle's offense ranks 14th in DVOA, and the defense ranks a troubling 24th.

Biggest Storyline: On the flip side, San Francisco enters this matchup with both sides of the ball soaring. The offense is particularly well-stocked and is at full strength. We talk so much about the skill-position players and deservedly so. The embarrassment of riches at wide receiver, tight end and running back is outrageous. However, the 49ers' three-game skid perfectly coincides with the time Trent Williams missed. The future Hall of Fame left tackle was on a tear against the typically stout Eagles run defense last week. In our fantasy-driven world, it can be possible for a player this good to be understated. The fact that Williams does what he does on the back side of runs affords Christian McCaffrey the confidence to cut runs back against the grain and ample time for Brock Purdy to wait for the routes to develop.

It all works in harmony with Williams at the center point.

Stat you need to know:

I find it hard to believe unlocking Seattle’s passing game was as simple as getting the ball out faster but there’s no denying everything looked different last Thursday. The Seahawks have too much talent at wide receiver to not take over games through the air — Geno Smith and Co. got it done at an astounding pace last week in Dallas. I don’t think Smith has played his best ball this season but he hasn’t been an overall net negative. With the state of their defense, especially in a game like this, Seattle needs to win high-scoring, pass-heavy affairs. Getting the ball out quickly and throwing routes over the middle to their playmakers is part of the answer. We saw it in Week 13.

Player in a smash spot: Deebo Samuel. That’s right … again.

Samuel just eviscerates these exact types of defenses in both phases of the offense. He could just as easily slice Seattle over the middle against yet another troubling linebacker corps, or we could see him work into the designed run game like in Week 12.

STREAM

DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS

Biggest Storyline: Two quarterbacks looking to prove themselves. Of course, that’s at different ends of the spectrum. Jared Goff is looking to continue to put some distance between himself and a few bad weeks against NFC North rivals. He really struggled last time he faced this Bears defense and that was in the confines of the safe dome in Detroit. If he slips again in an outdoor road game during a cold month, prepare for the narrative to run wild.

On the other side, Justin Fields may be entering his last stretch as the Bears quarterback as they look likely to pick at the top of the draft. However, Fields can make a big push for another team to bring him in as a viable starting option with a strong close to the season. The Lions' pass defense is a great matchup to showcase his best work through the air and Fields has crushed them on the ground in his Bears career. He has averaged 127 yards per game as a rusher against Detroit in their last three meetings.

Stat you need to know:

Sam LaPorta is having an all-time rookie season for a tight end. He’s been a dominant play from the word "Go" in Detroit. The Lions have enough built-in goodness in their passing game between Amon-Ra St. Brown, LaPorta and the impact of the running backs through the air. That does lead to a small target squeeze every week, but these players are so good it’s not a significant concern.

Player in a smash spot: DJ Moore. The veteran receiver is quietly having a career year with the Bears. He’s averaging the highest yards per game, yards per target and catch rate of his career. He’s amassed over 700 yards on a 31% target share in his last six games with Justin Fields alone. Now he gets to play against a Lions defense that ranks dead last in dropback success rate allowed since Week 8.

HOUSTON TEXANS at NEW YORK JETS

Biggest Storyline: The Texans offense without Tank Dell. Losing Dell is a crushing blow to a passing game that’s soared this year. The rookie-to-rookie connection between C.J. Stroud and Dell has been magic. I think Dell has been one of the best wide receivers on out-breaking routes this season.

Stroud is good enough to elevate surrounding players and he has another bona fide No. 1 wide receiver in Nico Collins. Don’t doubt what your eyes tell you: Collins is that good and not a mere product of Stroud’s elevation. He’s shown the potential to be this type of receiver since his rookie season. You just had to view him apart from his dreadful surroundings.

How the rest of the room shakes out post-Dell injury is something to watch. My guess is that Noah Brown and Robert Woods alternate between the slot and flanker positions, with Brown running more routes inside. I’d bet Brown is the more productive player down the stretch. I’m curious if we ever see more of 2022 rookie John Metchie, who has mostly just been a rotational body.

Stat you need to know: Among players who have run 100 routes this year Garrett Wilson leads the NFL in air-yard share and is seventh in target share but 60th in yards per route run and 133rd in yards per target. Just a reminder that these metrics do not isolate wide receiver performance. Anything that involves “yards” welcomes in the variable of surroundings. Even the best of talents like Wilson can be dragged down due to horrendous circumstances. He’s someone I’m going to really struggle with in the fantasy football postseason.

Player in a smash spot: None. With the Jets defense being an intimidating unit, I wouldn’t say anyone on the Texans side is in an actual smash spot. That won’t stop me from playing guys like Collins or Stroud, but I am not going too far down the ladder in that offense, for this week at least.

As for the Jets, you’re not getting a smash from that side, as you well know.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

Biggest Storyline: Jake Browning, ladies and gentlemen. It wasn’t just that the Bengals ran an effective offense last week with Browning. There were multiple wrinkles that were slightly different than the Burrow offense. Browning used play action on 28% of his dropbacks, per PFF, and averaged 11.4 yards per pass attempt. The screen game was a huge feature for the Bengals in their Week 13 win. That win was a great testament to the Bengals' offensive coaching staff and Browning’s stock as a viable NFL backup. We don’t have to worry about the Bengals circling the drain without Burrow after what we’ve seen from him.

Stat you need to know:

I’m sure fantasy managers were frustrated with the results you got from Zack Moss last week but the role is as secure as ever for one of the most valuable running back stash options. You go right back to him after you saw him play 94% of the snaps and touch the ball 21 times. From a pure matchup perspective, the Bengals are on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Titans, ranking 28th in rushing success rate allowed.

Player in a smash spot: Michael Pittman Jr. He’s in a smash spot every week but that’s especially true this week against a Bengals defense that struggles to shut down the middle of the field. Pittman has target totals of 16, 13, 12, eight and 13 over his last five games. He’s hit eight-plus catches in all of them. Few receivers have been more bankable this year.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

Biggest Storyline: Will Trevor Lawrence take the field and how will he play if he does? Lawrence was back on the practice field this week rather quickly after a rough injury on Monday night. He can play through the issue but there’s no doubt his game will be impacted if he suits up amid a high-ankle sprain. Myles Garrett still played 89% of the snaps last week despite dealing with his own injury issue. So this won’t be a soft landing spot for Lawrence if he decides to give it a go. The Jaguars can’t afford any slip-ups down the stretch as the Texans and Colts nip at their heels for the AFC South lead.

Stat you need to know: Parker Washington ran a route on 34 of 46 dropbacks on Monday night after Christian Kirk went down. I’m a fan of Washington’s game, especially his excellent hands.

It’s a deep pull for fantasy football but make no mistake, Washington can play. Christian Kirk is a good player and a loss for this Jags offense. However, Washington can give them some admirable work as a fill-in.

Player in a smash spot: Elijah Moore. Ja’Marr Chase served as an excellent reminder of how vulnerable this Jaguars pass defense is right now. Moore is coming off a season-high 12 targets and a 21.4 average target depth. Joe Flacco aggressively pushed the ball downfield to Moore; he knows what he’s capable of in this area based on their history together with the Jets. With Amari Cooper questionable, Moore is in a nice spot this week.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

Biggest Storyline: Arthur Smith is living. The Falcons lead the NFL with 75 rush attempts since returning from their Week 11 bye. Smith inserted Desmond Ridder back into the lineup coming out of their bye but has asked very little of him amid this two-game win streak. It’s hard to blame him for that plan. The Falcons are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South and they’ll attempt to ride to glory with this identity.

Stat you need to know:Rachaad White has cleared 100 yards from scrimmage in four of his last six games. White has one of the best roles among any fantasy running back. The Bucs have stuck with him despite some early inefficiency but he’s settling in nicely now. He’s averaged 6.7 and 4.2 yards per carry the last two weeks, respectively, and rarely left the field.

Player in a smash spot: Drake London. Oh boy, that’s where I’m at. There’s obviously no floor to bank on with London in this offense but this is an excellent week to chase the ceiling. The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense and have allowed the sixth-most yards per game to receivers lined up out wide.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at NEW YORK GIANTS

Biggest Storyline: Jordan Love’s continued ascension. Since Week 10, Love ranks fifth in passer rating, sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt, eighth in dropback success rate and fourth in EPA per play. He’s played like a top-level quarterback, full stop. The Giants are generally a positive matchup for quarterbacks, so this isn’t precisely another proving-ground moment. That said, every week matters as we continue to get a read on where Love thrives as a player and his overall development.

With so many young quarterbacks not stepping up to the plate and injuries running through starters, Love’s growth is one of the bright spot stories of the season.

Stat you need to know: Tommy DeVito in Weeks 11 to 12: fourth among quarterbacks in yards per attempt, eighth in completion rate and second in passer rating (sandwiched between MVP candidates Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott). This is obviously a tiny sample but it’s encouraging that DeVito has stabilized his play after some rough early moments in relief of Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor. It’s a feather in the coaching cap of Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka amid a disaster season and brings some life to an oft-moribund offense. Rookie Jalin Hyatt popped up for 100 yards prior to the bye with DeVito shooting passes downfield.

Player in a smash spot: Saquon Barkley. With the overall offensive environment in New York on the upswing, Barkley’s fantasy ceiling has been revived. He didn’t do much in the slog of a game against New England prior to the bye but touched the ball 18 times and scored twice the week prior. Week 14 could hold similar fortunes with Barkley fresh off the bye going against the ultra-generous Packers' run defense.

SKIP

TENNESSEE TITANS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

One reason to maybe watch: To see the Dolphins' running back rotation. Here’s how the split worked first half last week: Raheem Mostert took 19 snaps and received nine carries and one target. De'Von Achane played 12 snaps with three carries and two targets. Achane then went wild in the second half when the game was largely decided.

Was Mostert getting most of the early work just a sign of the team’s desire to play it safe with Achane coming back from another injury? We know the offense reaches its highest dynamic ceiling when he’s out there. Monday night will be a great proving ground to discover his rest-of-season outlook. I can’t see myself benching him this week regardless of those half-by-half splits.

Stat you need to know:The Dolphins leads the NFL in defensive success rate since returning from their bye week. The narrative around Vic Fangio is that his defenses, while quite effective, can take a while to sink in with the players. This stat backs up that story. Getting a healthy Jalen Ramsey back in the mix certainly can’t hurt either, though losing pass rusher Jaelan Phillips will make the path forward more difficult. All this makes this matchup a pretty tough draw for the Titans, who are a limited offense. Ramsey could cover DeAndre Hopkins often in Week 14, which requires other players to step up. That’s been an issue for Tennessee’s passing game all year.

DENVER BRONCOS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

One reason to maybe watch: To see if the Broncos rebound. Denver’s playoff odds took a pretty severe hit when they lost to Houston last week but they received a small boost when the Steelers lost on Thursday night. The New York Times model currently gives them a 30% chance to make the dance.

Denver has a particular path to victory: Play good defense while trying to secure turnovers and operate in a safe fashion on offense. Russell Wilson got them off the second part last week, but this is a nice bounce-back spot against a bottom-barrel pass defense in Los Angeles.

Stat you need to know:

It’s been a slog for Austin Ekeler of late and there’s no doubt he’s gutting it out through an early return from a high-ankle sprain. The matchups have also been brutal recently with the Bears, Jets, Lions, Packers, Ravens and Patriots on the schedule. All but one of those teams rank inside the top half of the league in rushing success rate allowed and three of them rank inside the top five. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 27th. If Ekeler is going to rebound at some point this season and right the ship, this is the week he projects best to do it, even if Brandon Staley does want to add some competition in the backfield.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

One reason to maybe watch: The Raiders' continued attempt to court 2024 Davante Adams. This is an esoteric one but think about it. Adams would be well within his rights to make a stink in the offseason and try to force his way out of Las Vegas. He’s made frustrations public in the past. Adams wants to win and be heavily involved in the game plan. The first part is not realistic but the current Raiders can at least try to keep him happy with the second portion. Adams has 33 targets over his last three games, which secures his fantasy floor, even if the ceiling case is a long-lost dream at this stage.

Stat you need to know: Joshua Dobbs led the NFL with 17 scrambles from Weeks 9 to 12. The Vikings were close to a quarterback change coming out of their bye but ultimately stuck it out with Dobbs. While he’s been far too reckless with the football of late, he does bring some creation ability that eases out issues in the offense. However, those scrambles remove pass attempts from the team’s projections. That shouldn’t be an issue for Justin Jefferson in his return to the lineup — superstars get theirs — but it could shave off the floor for a guy like Jordan Addison and nip at the ceiling for T.J. Hockenson.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

One reason to maybe watch: What the offense may look like with Jameis Winston. I don’t want to get too far out on my skis here because Derek Carr was a limited participant in practice while dealing with multiple maladies. We’ve seen him return at the early end of his injury timeline over the years. If Winston starts, I’m at least interested in seeing if he can boost the ceiling of a player like Chris Olave on downfield routes. Winston averages 13.0 air yards per attempt and carries a 25% deep-throw rate on the season.

If it’s simply another Carr game, well, I know what that looks like.

Stat you need to know: Chuba Hubbard in Week 13 played 64% of the snaps, handled 73.5% of the carries and ran a route on 17% of the dropbacks. Miles Sanders ran more routes but also made multiple mistakes, including a costly low block that got Bryce Young lit up. Hubbard has been the more effective player all season. It’s never going to be pretty but if you need an RB2 in fantasy, Hubbard should continue to get the workload you’ll require.