Binge, Stream and Skip: Fantasy football Week 6 viewer's guide
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 6 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
Are the Bengals back? We are all putting a lot of stock in a big win over the Cardinals and some brief glimpses of Joe Burrow on the move. I don’t hate the notion. Burrow threw two touchdowns and was the fourth-best passer under pressure overall in Week 5, per PFF. That ability to move off his spot was a big factor. It’s an encouraging sign after Cincinnati had to run a stagnant, quick-strike offense with the most compromised version of Burrow in prior weeks. They still didn’t push the ball downfield a ton, which is the next phase in the evolution.
Not that it matters for Ja’Marr Chase.
Such a great separator with pristine YAC skills, Chase can win if the Bengals are throwing short in space or attacking vertically. He’s an elite player who wins everywhere. I’m more interested to see if Tee Higgins (who sounds like he will play this week) can reach his ceiling in the former approach. He’s a solid separator who is better exploited downfield and in tight coverage.
The Seahawks come off their bye after a blowout win in Week 4 over the Giants. We haven’t seen many eruptions from this offense yet but make no mistake, it’s an excellent unit. Seattle ranks fourth in overall offensive success rate behind only Miami, San Francisco and Buffalo. They rank fourth in dropback success rate and 11th in rushing, where Kenneth Walker is cooking right now. This is all a huge credit to offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who is problem-solving in real-time with both starting tackles missing games. Charles Cross is set to return on the left side, which will help get big stat lines out of Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
Non-obvious players I like
Nice and tidy. Great game but there are no fringe guys worth playing here.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Only Brock Purdy has a better completion percentage out of 12 personnel this season than Geno Smith … but Smith has almost 4.5 times the attempts. Waldron has helped ease the pass protection concerns by using heavier sets with multiple tight ends. It’s benefitted the run game but Smith has also been hyper-efficient throwing out of these looks. We could see that change at some point.
Don’t be surprised if: We still don’t see Jaxon Smith-Njigba thrive. The above point leads to this one. Still overall bullish about JSN in the long-term, but I don’t think they’ll spread the field with three receivers until both starting tackles return — if they ever do at all.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns offense doesn’t justify them being placed in BINGE, but the 49ers are the best team in the league and Cleveland’s defense is a top-tier unit. That matchup alone is worth the price of admission.
Deshaun Watson in 2022 had a 41.6% passing success rate and averaged 5.2 net yards per attempt. So far in 2023, he’s at a 42.1% success rate and 5.4 net yards per attempt. There has not been much of a difference. Ideally, the bye week would have been the perfect time to fully transition the offense away from the under-center, Nick Chubb-focused unit to a Watson-centric, shotgun-heavy attack the likes of which we saw glimpses of in their Week 3 win. Instead, Watson has been ruled out for this game, complicating matters. It sounds like we will get P.J. Walker as the backup quarterback, instead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
The 49ers are must-see TV. Brock Purdy is operating the Kyle Shanahan offense at maximum efficiency and the superstars are shining. I don’t care if you get a down game from any of these 49ers players in fantasy football. You still play them every single week because they could erupt at any moment. That includes Purdy. He’s still the consensus-ranked QB18 on FantasyPros for Week 6. I get that the Browns are a tough matchup this week, but I can’t imagine there are 12 more quarterbacks I’d rank ahead of him the rest of the season. Perhaps the industry doesn’t see it that way just yet.
Non-obvious players I like
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns. There’s been some good and bad with the Ford usage in a post-Nick Chubb world. While he’s only handled 33.9% of the carries, he’s been the clear passing-down back. He owns a 13% target share and has run a route on 55% of the dropbacks. That will keep him afloat in negative game scripts.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Brock Purdy ranks third behind C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff in adjusted net yards per attempt on throws of 20+ yards. This is why Brandon Aiyuk is finally producing near — notice I didn’t say at — a level commensurate with his talent. Purdy is willing to let it rip downfield. You couldn’t pay Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt that throw Purdy ripped to Aiyuk on the corner route that was called back last week.
Don’t be surprised if: The Browns' passing game is more functional with Walker than it was in Week 4. The bones of a good supporting cast in the passing game remain if the Browns can get functional quarterback play. The Day 3 rookie was not up to that task before the bye, but Walker flashed at times during his Carolina days.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars return to America after going on a 2-0 run in London. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel that Jacksonville still has not put up a complete game. That should be taken as praise considering they just toppled the Buffalo Bills and still have room to improve. The Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley connection got fired up again in Week 5 with a smash performance against man coverage on comeback routes and back-shoulder throws. Now, they’ll take on a Colts secondary that they roasted in Week 1. I’m dialing up expectations for the Jaguars' passing game in this spot.
The Colts will go the next month-plus with Gardner Minshew as their starter at quarterback. Anthony Richardson is certainly more exciting and it’s a bummer injuries have thrown a curve in his on-the-job developmental process, but Minshew is a more than capable placeholder. He’s better than some teams’ starters. Minshew has been getting the ball out quickly in this offense (2.42 second time to throw) and hitting layups (6.8 average depth of target). For the most part, so was Richardson (2.56, 7.9), so the offense won’t dramatically change. That’s good news for top receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who has a 30.4% target share on 91 Minshew dropbacks this season.
Non-obvious players I like
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts. This guy is so good. He’s just always open. The rookie should also be perfectly viable with Minshew. He has a 25.3% target share from Minshew so far this season.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars. We’re getting to a point where Kirk is a weekly start but I don’t think the industry values him as such just yet. Since his strange 1-9 line in the season opener, Kirk is averaging 10 targets per game and has cleared 70 yards and/or scored a touchdown every week. The Colts defense has been ripped up by wide receivers and Ridley won’t get all the targets to himself.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Travis Etienne has the second-most carries among all running backs and fourth in routes run at the position. His Week 5 eruption finally catapulted his fantasy points to a spot in line with his workload (RB4 overall). Etienne is a workhorse back in a good offense and even has five designed targets, per Fantasy Points Data, in the last three games.
Don’t be surprised if: Zack Moss remains a big factor. The Colts signed Jonathan Taylor to a mega extension and can still get a ton of use out of Moss. Both things can be true and it doesn’t make them boneheads for offering Taylor big money. Taylor will continue to get more work as he gets back into the swing of football following so much time off, but Moss has been too good to completely shelve. Every running back is looking for a second fiddle to take some of the physical pounding away every week while remaining explosive. Moss is that guy for Taylor now.
DETROIT LIONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Lions are fresh off a drubbing of the Carolina Panthers despite not being at full strength. They’ll get Amon-Ra St. Brown back for Week 5 but rookie phenom tight end Sam LaPorta is battling a calf injury, leaving him questionable. So we may still not see them at 100% for this week. That’s a shame because this matchup with Tampa Bay has a chance to be a bit more fantasy-friendly than the current 42.5-point total implies.
The Bucs are coming off their bye to a friendly matchup for their passing game. The Lions are slowly turning into a massive run funnel, despite the great play of their defensive line amid Aiden Hutchinson’s second-year leap. Detroit ranks fifth in rushing success rate allowed but just 16th in dropback success rate allowed. We could see that second number keep falling as they continue to sustain injuries in the secondary to key free agents they brought in like C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley. That’s fine for the Bucs, who don’t run the ball well at all this season and rank dead last in yards per carry. Rachaad White continues to own a workhorse role and not do much with it; it’s tough to see how that changes in this matchup. Tampa Bay’s passing game is in a nice spot.
Non-obvious players I like
Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions. As expected, Jameson Williams’ return didn’t hinder Reynolds’ role, as he led the team in the first half last week with a 40.6% air yard share. We’ll see if Williams can find form at some point and fully take snaps away from Marvin Jones and Kalif Raymond to get on the fantasy radar. For now, Reynolds remains a great bye-week flex fill-in.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Sam LaPorta ranks fifth among all tight ends in air yards share, and sixth in team target share. Even if he carries an injury designation going into this week, it’s worth asking … how many tight ends would you rather have in fantasy than the Iowa product? He’s been dynamic, has a critical role in this offense and rarely leaves the field (over 80% of the snaps in four of five games this year). I’d still rather have Travis Kelce but after that, I think it’s worth a debate between the Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson types.
Don’t be surprised if: Chris Godwin is a top-12 wide receiver on the week. We went over the favorable matchup above. Top outside receiver Mike Evans has been nursing a hamstring injury through the Week 5 bye. He's expected to return, but it remains to be seen if he's 100%. We saw Godwin have his best game of the season with Evans out of the mix in Week 4 and to my eye, he looks better against man coverage than he did last season as he was coming back from a torn ACL.
DALLAS COWBOYS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Monday Night Football looks like an excellent environment for fantasy football and a game ripe with plenty of spicy takes following whatever result unfolds between these two oft-discussed teams.
After what they’ve shown so far this season and especially in Week 5, I’m openly wondering whether the Cowboys can actually participate in a shootout. The Cowboys have been calling their passing game “The Texas Coast” offense — which I’d love to never hear again in my life after Sunday Night Football in Week 5; I’m just calling it toothless. Dak Prescott has a 2.35-second time to throw and a 6.8 average depth of target. He throws to his first read on 65.6% of his passes (per Fantasy Points Data) which far too often is not CeeDee Lamb, for whatever reason.
It appears the Cowboys have nurtured their passing game in a desperate attempt to cut down Prescott’s interception problem from last season just so ESPN would stop talking about it on every TV segment. Congratulations!
If this passing game cannot get rolling against a Chargers defense that ranks 25th in success rate allowed, I wonder if we just need to fully dial back expectations for what this unit can be in 2023.
The Chargers return from their bye week and will get Austin Ekeler back in the mix. Ekeler was a dominant rusher in Week 1, barreling through the Dolphins defense. We’ll finally get a chance to see if that can carry over through the course of the season or if it was a matchup-induced blip. The concepts Kellen Moore ran out in Week 1 were a perfect fit for Ekeler’s rushing style and should push him to efficient days through the course of the season.
Non-obvious players I like
Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys. This is a bit of a stretch because we simply haven’t seen the role develop for Cooks. However, he did run the third-most routes among Dallas players in Week 5 and collected a team-high 114 air yards. He could hit a big play against this miserable Chargers defense.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers. Nothing that happened before the bye would indicate that rookie Quentin Johnston is ready to contend for major targets in this offense. So Palmer should continue to run as the clear top outside receiver while Keenan Allen dominates the slot.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:CeeDee Lamb has a 23.9% share of the first-read targets in Dallas ... which ranks 37th in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. That is just nonsense. Lamb may not be an elite receiver in the league but he deserves mention among the top-10 players at the position. When you have a pass-catcher like that, you should funnel the offense through that player, especially when there is such a dropoff to options two, three and four. Dallas is somehow making their offense more complicated than it needs to be and neutering it at the same time.
Don’t be surprised if: Either Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen has a disappointing target total. It’s hard for me to imagine all three of these things can be true: Ekeler maintains a high target share, Allen keeps his near 30% from Weeks 1 to 5 and we won’t be consumed with Justin Herbert's average depth of target discourse all Tuesday morning. Los Angeles needs a deep threat to emerge with Mike Williams on the shelf for the season.
STREAM
BALTIMORE RAVENS at TENNESSEE TITANS
The Ravens suffered through a wild amount of drops that let the Steelers hang around last week. Failing to shut the door then caused Lamar Jackson to make crucial, can’t-be-done mistakes. Overall, the Ravens offense has been walking a razor’s edge and is so close to putting it all together. I’m betting on this being the week they do it against a Titans secondary that lets players run wide-open. Rashod Bateman is still getting separation underneath, Zay Flowers is explosive and Lamar Jackson has been playing well. Patience is required.
The biggest storyline on the Titans is Tyjae Spears’ involvement. Whenever the Titans are losing, Derrick Henry cedes work to Spears. There is no reason for Tennessee to change this. For one, it likely preserves Henry’s body and doesn’t add needless mileage. Also, Spears has juice. He’s looked too explosive in limited looks for them to ice him out of the rotation. This will remain a frustration for Henry drafters in fake football but it’s a welcome development for the Titans.
Non-obvious players I like
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens. It’s been snack or feast for Flowers’ target distribution. He’s either gotten designed layup targets or vertical shot plays. It’s time to get him intermediate targets mixed in.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:DeAndre Hopkins ranks ninth among all pass catchers in air yards share and eighth in target share. He just keeps getting it done. Hopkins had a vintage game in Week 5 and was inches away from a long score in Week 4. It’s a difficult matchup, but he’s the only game in town for the Titans' aerial attack.
Don’t be surprised if: The Ravens' passing game bounces back. All those drops are likely fluky. They should have blown out the Steelers, 35-10. It didn’t happen but moving on to this week, as long as the receivers brought their mitts across the pond, this is the right matchup to put the promise into the box score for the Baltimore offense.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
I feel like we do a check-in on him every week and he’s certainly been a roller coaster. Last week may have been Desmond Ridder’s best game as a pro as he ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt in Week 5. There are throws to be made in this offense; Ridder just has to pull the trigger. When he does, we can get big games out of Kyle Pitts and Drake London, as we saw.
The Commanders offense has grown to be a frustrating unit. Sam Howell is a volatile quarterback who takes too many sacks but the coaching staff is not helping him out. Your quarterback isn’t on pace to take 99 sacks (not joking) without your protection scheme being at least slightly at fault.
Depending on the play of these two young developmental quarterbacks, I can see this game going either way. A big day for multiple brand-name fantasy players wouldn’t shock me. A low-scoring, frustrating slog would not be a surprise either.
Non-obvious players I like
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders secondary has been taken to the woodshed in each of the last two weeks. London is coming off a big game where he helped Atlanta snag the win over the Texans and he leads the team with a 23% target share in the last two weeks.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders. The Pride of Lynchburg, VA looks incredible. His volume has been earned, as he’s a quality player. He’s caught three-plus passes in all but one game (he left early due to injury) this season.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Terry McLaurin leads the team with a 16% target share … and three players are behind him with 14-15%. This is shameful. The trio of McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel should never leave the field. However, they’re rotating a ton for Dyami Brown, Byron Pringle and Jamison Crowder. That is bad personnel usage and asset management — to ice out three great receivers the organization invested in — of the highest order.
Don’t be surprised if: Brian Robinson remains volatile. He will be a game-script volatile back. However, even in a matchup against a tough run defense, this looks like a good spot for him. Atlanta doesn’t really blow teams out and keeps things close. Robinson should get at least 15 touches this week.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CHICAGO BEARS
Justin Fields ranks second in EPA per dropback and fifth in success rate over the last two weeks. The Bears have simplified the picture for Fields and are essentially running the “just throw to your good players” offense. DJ Moore has a whopping 56.2% share of the air yards and has been targeted on 30% of his routes in the last two games. Moore is cooking and this matchup with Minnesota is no time to stop the good times rolling.
The Vikings' loss of Justin Jefferson cannot go understated. We always get these situations wrong in fantasy. Yes, the remaining players will get a bigger slice of the pie in the absence of Jefferson. However, the entire dish is going to become much less appealing. Remember that when projecting the rest of the Vikings' roster as they look to replace an irreplaceable player.
Non-obvious players I like
D’Onta Foreman, RB, Chicago Bears. With Khalil Herbert out for multiple weeks and Roschon Johnson just declared out, Foreman is on the RB2 radar in a good matchup. Matt Eberflus confirmed he will be active.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings. I have my questions about Addison’s ability to hang with top coverage and press. However, the Bears don’t bring much of anything of that nature to the table. I won’t go wild with my optimism, but he’s a WR3 to me this week and likely going forward.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears. He has run a route on 66% of the dropbacks the last two weeks with a 0.29 targets per route run mark. Excellent usage at this position.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Kirk Cousins is second in the NFL in passing yards and fifth in TD rate but 13th in EPA per play and success rate. There are some hollow stats in Cousins’ passing totals so far this season. How much do the results take a hit without one of the best players in the sport?
Don’t be surprised if: The Bears pull off the upset. The Bears are playing solid football offensively and it’s just difficult to imagine the Vikings just rolling on through without Jefferson. He’s as transformative a player as there is in the NFL.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at HOUSTON TEXANS
The Saints offense has slowed down a bit, even though they smashed the Patriots last week. We just need Derek Carr to get a bit healthier. There has been some panic over Chris Olave in the fantasy streets as if we’ve forgotten he’s cleared double-digit targets and averaged 100.7 yards per game in Weeks 1 to 3. Olave will be more than fine.
The Texans continue to outkick expectations in the passing game. C.J. Stroud passes new tests every single week. Nico Collins had a down game on the stat sheet last week in a tough matchup with A.J. Terrell. However, Tank Dell is expected to miss this game so even if it’s another difficult spot, Collins could get eight to 10 targets here. The Saints rank second in rushing success rate allowed, so we could be looking at another slog for Dameon Pierce.
Non-obvious players I like
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans. He popped up last week against the Falcons and with Tank Dell not expected to play, Schultz can repeat another solid stat line.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Alvin Kamara ranks fourth in expected fantasy points per game in the last two weeks (Fantasy Points Data). Few running backs have a workload like this. He’s a low-end RB1 or high-end No. 2 at the worst in weekly rankings until further notice.
Don’t be surprised if: C.J. Stroud throws his first pick of the season. Dennis Allen’s defense is swarming and plays with a hive mind on the back end. That’s going to make for a tough matchup for the rookie quarterback. He almost threw his first interception last week against Atlanta. Stroud is awesome but his luck runs out this week.
ARIZONA CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams welcomed in Cooper Kupp last week and he went right back to productive football. Los Angeles is wonderfully concentrated, too. Kyren Williams had a 93% share of the team carries in Week 5. His role is as good as anyone’s in the NFL. Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for 62.1% of the targets. The veteran’s return did not take away the appeal from the rookie. The Rams even shipped off Van Jefferson this week, solidifying these two atop the pecking order.
The Cardinals remain a plucky operation, although Josh Dobbs turned in his worst game of the season last week. Still, that doesn’t change the outlook for Marquise Brown, who has emerged as an every-week fantasy starter. He was simply too good to go as late as he did in drafts this summer.
Non-obvious players I like
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals. The veteran keeps on rolling. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes so far this season. He’s a floor play but that’s nothing to turn your nose up at with this position.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Eighty-three percent of Emari Demercado’s yards have come after contact this season. He’s looked solid as a fill-in for James Conner as a runner and has drawn nine targets on 49 routes. I’d still bet on him as the guy who will have the most fantasy value from this backfield with Conner on IR.
Don’t be surprised if: Matthew Stafford throws three touchdowns. Stafford ranks 29th in touchdown rate so far this season, despite playing really well. At some point, we’ll get some positive regression. The Cardinals' cornerback group is weak and the Rams have all their weapons available now.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK JETS
I’d venture to say that Week 5 was Jalen Hurts’ best game of the 2023 season. A.J. Brown has been dominant, they finally got Dallas Goedert rolling and they still rank second in rushing success rate. This is one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Meanwhile in New York, Zach Wilson is still far from perfect but he’s at least been functional the last two weeks. It’s a low bar to clear but the Jets rank a passable 16th in dropback EPA the last two weeks. The Eagles' defense can get after Wilson up front and send him into chaos mode. But if he can hang on, there are exploitable spots in this secondary.
Non-obvious players I like
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets. The coaching seems to have finally drilled into Zach Wilson that he just needs to hammer the ball to No. 17 as much as possible. Garrett Wilson has a 46% first-read target share over the last two weeks, good for 114 yards on 20 targets. It won’t be pretty and it’ll never be close to the ceiling we once dreamt about, but I think we are back in the clear with Garrett Wilson as an every-week option.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Breece Hall has 26 carries out of man/gap runs and his 65.4% success rate and 12.2 YPC easily lead all backs with 15+ carries out of man/gap (Fantasy Points Data). He is all the way back. The matchup goes from mega easy last week against Denver to a tough spot with the Eagles. However, Hall is at a point where you need to rank him as, at worst, a high-end RB2 every single week now that his full workload is restored and he’s running effectively.
Don’t be surprised if: DeVonta Smith goes off in this game. We saw this story with A.J. Brown earlier this season and just watched it play out with Dallas Goedert. The Eagles are perfectly okay with getting guys going if they’ve had slower statistical outings. There are better things to do than worry about a few slow games for pass-catchers in this offense.
It’s quite similar to the 49ers. There will be ebbs and flows but the ceiling games will always be worth chasing.
SKIP
CAROLINA PANTHERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Miami Dolphins do not deserve to be here, but the Panthers are just so non-functional it merits a skip.
The Dolphins’ 0.114 EPA per rush is 1.7 times the No. 2-ranked team. They have been simply deadly running the football this season. Some of the juice will be sucked out with rookie DeVon Achane out of the mix. However, Raheem Mostert has proven to be a consistent source of big plays, too. He’s back on the RB1 radar, especially in this matchup. Keep an eye on the status of the trusted Jeff Wilson Jr., who could be off IR soon and should be 100% rostered in fantasy leagues in case he snakes a big workload in this fruitful rushing environment once he returns.
What is there to say about the Panthers? The passing game is what it is. And now Miles Sanders seems to be dealing with a new injury every single week to the point he’s been completely sapped of any juice. Not that they are in game scripts to run the rock as it is. Let your leaguemates chase Chuba Hubbard’s garbage-time receiving role with Sanders being ruled out.
Non-obvious players I like
None.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Adam Thielen ranks eighth in targets on the season. His 22.8% target share is the lowest top-15 target earners in the NFL. Thielen is the only viable zone-beater in the Panthers offense but let’s not pretend he’s balling out or anything. His target totals have been boosted playing for a terrible team that’s always in a negative game script. However, he was certainly disrespected as “washed” in the preseason by most analysts and a move to the slot has benefited him. Either way, you need to keep playing him in fantasy football and he’s the only member of this offense you can say that about.
Don’t be surprised if: Jaylen Waddle is sneakily the biggest beneficiary of DeVon Achane’s absence. Waddle is missing some of the schemed-up layups from last season. A lot of that kind of opportunity has gone to the running backs, both on the ground and through the air. Removing Achane allows for Waddle to rise back up the usage tree. It’s just about finding explosive plays and Waddle can do that.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Scott Pianowski pitched an entirely separate “unsubscribe” category for the Patriots every week in this column on our Week 6 preview podcast. Can’t say I blame him. There is not a single Patriots player you should consider playing in fantasy. Even Rhamondre Stevenson is sinking fast and he made for a perfect candidate for the “coping corner” on The People's Panic Meter episode of the podcast with Andy Behrens this week. It’s just not going to happen in this offense unless he dominates touches. That will not happen.
The Raiders are a nice and tidy fantasy offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is far from flawless but is playing well enough for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to get home. That’s all we care about. The running game is starting to turn the corner with Josh Jacobs, as well.
Non-obvious players I like
None.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:Jakobi Meyers had a 37% share of the first-read targets in Week 15 … 15.8% for Davante Adams and 10.5% for Michael Mayer, per Fantasy Points Data.If only there was a website on the internet that would have told you Jakobi Meyers was one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL for the last few seasons. Alas. Adams was playing through an injury in a tough matchup last week, so that would explain his lesser role. The interesting one here is Michael Mayer, who finally ran more routes than veteran Austin Hooper. Keep an eye on Mayer in this matchup. At least it’s something to watch.
Don’t be surprised if: The Raiders' fantasy defense is usable. The Patriots have a litany of offensive issues but pass protection has been one of the biggest hiccups. New England ranks 30th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency. Maxx Crosby can boost the Raiders D/ST to 15 points just on his own efforts.
NEW YORK GIANTS at BUFFALO BILLS
Nothing better than an island prime-time game in the skip section. The Bills are coming back from London after an exhausting and costly trip. The Bills have now lost Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones for the season, just one week after Tre'Davious White was placed on IR. I’m not sure how much that will matter against a Giants team that simply cannot mount drives to this point. The good news for the Giants: they finally got Darren Waller rolling on isolated routes as a true wide receiver last week (we need these for fantasy) and may get Saquon Barkley back in the fold. The bad news, I guess, is that Daniel Jones is out. At least Tyrod Taylor is a more than capable backup. You will likely have to play both Waller and Barkley simply due to the lack of depth at those positions in fantasy football. That doesn’t change the fact that New York is on blowout watch.
Non-obvious players I like
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills. This is a little bit risky considering we’ve watched Cook’s role decrease in the last two weeks. However, he’s mostly lost snaps to Latavius Murray in pass-protecting situations in the two-minute drill. I don’t envision those scenarios playing out often in this game.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:The Giants rank dead last in the percentage of first-down runs to go for three-plus yards on first down. Even if Barkley is back, it’s hard to imagine him having an efficient day on the ground. Teams have an incentive to sell out to stop early-down runs against the Giants because they want to get them in long second- and third-down situations. This allows them to tee off against a porous offensive line.
Don’t be surprised if: Gabe Davis has another strong game. His individual game will always be rocky but to this point, Davis has been a steady producer. The role is there. He’s run a route on 80% of the dropbacks and has a beefy 16.3 aDOT. He’ll have a floor week at some point, but with Buffalo having a 29.5 implied team total, I’d chase another Davis touchdown in a matchup with a generous secondary.
