Bills report card: Josh Allen knows playoff math 'not pretty' after loss to nemesis Bengals

CINCINNATI - During their tumultuous 2022 season, the Buffalo Bills lost only three games which was quite an accomplishment given all the adversity they dealt with, especially going down the stretch and into the postseason.

The Bills have only just inched past the midway point of the 2023 season Sunday night, and already they have surpassed their loss total thanks to a 24-18 defeat at the hands of their new nemesis, the Cincinnati Bengals.

A little more than a month ago, the Bills looked to be the class of the AFC East and maybe the AFC after they pummeled the Miami Dolphins 48-20. Since then, the Bills look like a team that will, for the first time since 2018, miss the playoffs.

Josh Allen obviously isn’t throwing in the towel, but he was keeping it real when he spoke to reporters after Buffalo’s third loss in its last five games.

“This second half of the season, realistically if you want to look at it, you need 10, maybe 11 wins to get into the playoff picture in the AFC,” he said. “Eight games left, we have five wins. So the math there, it's not pretty, it's not going to be easy.”

No, it certainly won’t be. They still have road games at Philadelphia, Kansas City, the Chargers and Miami, plus home games against the Jets and Cowboys. Maybe the Broncos next week and Patriots on New Years’ Eve (who they’ve already lost to) will be easier marks, but where are there five or six wins for this team in that gantlet?

For his part, Allen thinks the Bills can move past their recent doldrums and rescue the season, but I think he’s being optimistic.

“We got a lot of guys that are unselfish players, guys that will do anything that they can to help this team win football games,” Allen said. “If there's a locker room that can handle this, it’s this locker room right here. It's nothing that we haven't seen before.”

He’s right. Back in 2021 they were 7-6 and then ran the table to win the division. But in 2021, they didn’t face the quality of competition they will over these final two months.

Here’s how I graded the Bills:

PASS OFFENSE: C+

Allen’s final numbers looked OK - 26 of 38 for 258 yards with a TD and an interception - but the reality is that the offense sputtered most of the night. After a great opening drive which matched the Bengals opening TD drive, the offense went into a deep funk for the rest of the first half.

Allen threw a bad interception trying to force a pass to Gabe Davis when he had James Cook wide open in the flat on the other side of the field. The Bills were lucky that their defense bailed Allen out and prevented a score, though that was mainly due to the Bengals committing three penalties.

Davis did not have a catch in the game, just a ridiculous situation that a No. 2 receiver would be so meaningless in a game against top level competition. Dalton Kincaid picked up the slack with 10 catches for 81 yards, but the rookie lost a fumble at the Cincinnati 13 early in the fourth quarter that took points off the board. Stefon Diggs was solid as usual with six catches for 86 yards and a TD, and Khalil Shakir had four for 57.

Up front, the line allowed just one sack, but the Bengals were able to get pressure on Allen and it wasn’t until the second half where he started to make them pay by scrambling.

RUN OFFENSE: D

Allen had 44 yards and the team total was just 68. James Cook carried just six times for 20 yards as the Bills were never able to establish anything on the ground which was part of the reason why they had the ball for only 23 minutes.

After the opening drive when Allen threw the ball on all seven plays, Ken Dorsey decided it was time to get Cook involved on the second and fourth possessions and he was stuffed and both ended in punts. The third possession was over quickly because of the interception.

It might be a good time to get Leonard Fournette up to speed and see if he can offer anything next week against Denver.

PASS DEFENSE: D

Burrow shredded the injury-ravaged Bills defense as he completed 31 of 44 passes for 348 yards and two TDs, both to tight ends, Irv Smith and Drew Sample.

The Bills were doing a great job on Ja’Marr Chase until it mattered most in the fourth quarter. He had only three catches for nine yards before he burned Dane Jackson for a 32-yard gain that set up the Bengals’ clinching field goal.

Losing CB Christian Benford for the second half didn’t help, so the Bills had to rely on Jackson, newcomer Rasul Douglas and 35-year-old Josh Norman, so that was far from ideal. It didn’t seem like there were any communication problems for Douglas, and with another week of practice he should be able to get fully up to speed.

The pass rush was not nearly impactful enough. Burrow was sacked only once - Leonard Floyd and Jordan Phillips shared it - and there were too many plays where he was able to scan the field and deliver. Once again, Von Miller was invisible, and Greg Rousseau seems to have fallen off a cliff after a good first month.

RUN DEFENSE: A-

With Burrow on fire, the Bengals didn’t need much from Joe Mixon who gained just 37 yards on 14 carries, but one of the biggest came on a third-and-3 at the Buffalo 36 right after the two-minute warning. Had they stuffed him there, Evan MacPherson would have had a field goal attempt of at least 54 yards, that is is Bengals coach Zac Taylor opted not to punt.

Instead, Miller had a clear shot to stop Mixon for no gain and whiffed, and Mixon got out to the perimeter and picked up the first down which ended the game because the Bills were out of timeouts.

The Bengals finished with just 54 yards on 22 attempts. Jordan Poyer was in on 11 tackles and Tyrel Dodson - who had to take over for injured Terrel Bernard - was in on nine including two for lost yardage.

SPECIAL TEAMS: C

It was a pretty quiet night all around. Tyler Bass made a 34-yard field goal and his lone extra point, and Sam Martin averaged a ho-hum 38.7 net yards on three punts. There were no punt returns, and on kickoffs, Khalil Shakir had a 27-yarder after he took over for Ty Johnson who made an error in judgment by fielding one two yards deep and not downing it. He got tackled at the 15.

In coverage, the Bengals Trayveon Williams averaged 20.3 yards on three kick returns and Trent Irwin average 5.5 yards on two punt returns.

COACHING: D

Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo defeated Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey pretty soundly. Dorsey was not able to scheme receivers open which has been a bit of an issue, and never was that more apparent than the way Davis was shutout.

Anarumo is known as a master at in-game adjustments and figuring out what the opposition is doing and coming up with solutions on the fly. After the Bills’ opening TD drive, they did nothing the rest of the first half and then scored only 11 points in the second half.

On defense, Sean McDermott was once again playing with a diminished group while also trying to work in two new players. The start was terrible as the Bengals raced downfield for TDs on their first two possessions, but thereafter, they scored only 10 points.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills report card: Buffalo outcoached and outclassed against Bengals