Biden weighs how the response to Iran could affect Israel-Hamas negotiations — and his own political fate

WASHINGTON — Meeting privately with national security aides this week, President Joe Biden raised a question, two people briefed on the discussion said: If he ordered military action to avenge the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan, would that jeopardize the delicate talks over the release of American hostages in Gaza?

When aides eased such concerns, he decided that he would proceed with retaliatory measures, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the president’s calculus.

Biden settled on a counterattack plan that is expected to unfold over multiple days, possibly weeks, U.S. officials told NBC News.

American forces are expected to hit targets in different countries outside Iran in response to the drone strike by Iranian-backed militants, which also injured more than 30 service members, U.S. officials said.

The operation, which officials say hasn’t begun, figures to be Biden's most forceful response yet to militia groups that have launched more than 150 attacks against U.S. forces since the war between Israel and Hamas started Oct. 7.

It's also among the biggest and riskiest tests that Biden has faced. He must keep the war from escalating but also respond to the attack in Jordan in a way that deters future assaults and signals to America’s enemies that they can’t kill U.S. forces with impunity.

Complicating matters further, Biden is up for re-election and eager to avoid any impression that he is a weak commander in chief whom adversaries can intimidate.

It's a tough balance to maintain in a fast-moving conflict. Any counterattack that destroys Iranian assets or kills Iranian-backed militia fighters risks a tit-for-tat response that could draw the U.S. deeper into the sort of Middle East quagmire that has bedeviled presidents for decades.

“It is probably the most important moment in his presidency,” said Brett Bruen, who was the director of global engagement in the Obama White House. “If he can apply a set of military strikes that push back Iranian efforts to destabilize the region and also avoid a war with Iran, that will be a strong proof point for his re-election. If he can thread that needle through the next few months, we’re going to hear that refrain on the campaign trail.”

Former President Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, has looked to capitalize on the crisis, posting on his social media site that the drone attack arose from Biden’s “weakness and surrender.”

Trump’s statement drew a fierce response from Biden allies.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., wrote on X that “the deaths of U.S. service members are NEVER something to politicize. We should be focused on holding those responsible for this attack accountable, keeping our troops safe, and avoiding a war in the Middle East.”

It’s doubtful that Trump would applaud anything Biden did. But some conservatives who’ve broken with Trump contend that the Biden administration’s muted response to smaller attacks by Iranian-linked militias invited the lethal assault that killed the three service members.

Biden ordered strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria in reprisal for previous attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, describing them as “proportionate” in scale. Yet John Bolton, a national security adviser in the Trump White House who has become a sharp critic of Trump, likened them to “pinpricks" that weren’t sufficient to deter Iranian aggression.

“You can’t leave Americans vulnerable and say we’re only going to wait until they are dead before we do anything,” Bolton said in an interview.

He suggested taking more aggressive action that would ratchet up the cost to Iran, including sinking Iranian ships in the Red Sea and attacking Iran’s secretive Quds Force units in the western part of Iran.

“The point is you need to make them feel pain,” Bolton said.

Voters typically focus on the economy in election years, with foreign policy a second-tier concern. But Biden’s support for Israel in the war with Hamas has caused fissures in his political base and focused attention on the aid he is providing to Israel as it tries to rout Hamas.

Biden has called upon Israeli leaders to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza and ensure that more humanitarian aid gets to the people who’ve lost their homes and livelihoods during Israel’s offensive.

He isn’t backing off his support for Israel, however. During a fundraising swing through Florida this week, he told guests that he believes that without Israel, Jews wouldn’t be safe in the world, two people familiar with his remarks said in interviews.

Nor is he hiding his differences with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s conduct of the war. Biden told the attendees at a recent fundraiser that when he met with Netanyahu in Israel after the war began, he saw a picture of the two of them together. Jokingly, he asked Netanyahu whether he puts the picture up when Biden arrives and takes it down as soon as he leaves, the people said.

Republicans see the growing Middle East tensions as a vulnerability for Biden in the coming election. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, the chairman of the Intelligence Committee, put out a statement after the drone attack that faulted the Biden administration for its “failure to respond to previous attacks."

Yet Trump had his own struggles with calming the region and protecting U.S. troops on his watch.

More than 100 U.S. service members suffered traumatic brain injuries in January 2020 — the start of Trump’s final year in office — when Iran fired missiles at two bases in Iraq.

That attack was in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, who headed the Quds Force. The U.S. assassination of Soleimani, in turn, followed an attack by Iranian proxies in Iraq that killed a U.S. contractor and injured four service members.

The year before, Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone in what American officials said was international airspace. Trump prepared to retaliate against Iranian targets but backed off at the last minute, saying killing Iranians over the loss of an uncrewed drone would be a disproportionate response.

Overall, through three years of Biden’s term, about 16 U.S. service members have died as a result of hostile action, according to statistics provided by the Defense Department. By contrast, 50 died at a similar point in Trump’s term. (Biden ended the 20-year war in Afghanistan during the first year of his term, pulling U.S. troops out of the country. Thirteen service members died in an attack as the U.S. was completing its withdrawal.)

“Attempts by far-right congressional Republicans to politicize our national security are illogical and detrimental to our safety and security,” said Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman. “In fact, these Republican officials never criticized the previous administration when the same militias attacked American troops, including in 2020.”