Biden’s support for Israel and Ukraine triggers far-fetched fears of WW III | Opinion

President Biden did not exaggerate when he said in his Oct. 19 speech to the nation pleading for continued aid to Israel and Ukraine that the United States is at “an inflection point in history.” It really is, unlike any time before in recent decades.

At stake is whether Washington maintains its role as a leader of the global alliance of democracies that was born after World War II, or decides to embrace former President Trump’s nationalist isolationism and cede global leadership to China and Russia.

Biden made his speech at a time when Trump’s Republican Party is increasingly skeptical about continued U.S. support for Ukraine, and when a small fraction of Democratic Party left-wingers objects to more U.S. aid to Israel. The White House is asking Congress for $105 billion in new aid for both countries.

“Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: They both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy,” Biden said. He added that history has shown that if they don’t pay a price for their aggression, they will “cause more chaos and death” all over the world.

It was a courageous speech, perhaps the finest of his presidency, and not just because it tried to combat U.S. isolationism. It showed Biden’s determination to help Ukraine and Israel defend themselves despite some alarmist warnings that it could lead to World War III.

The right-of-center Wall Street Journal reflected this fear in a front-page Oct. 16 story. Its headline read, “How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China.”

The theory is that the United States and Europe will not be able to finance both Israel and Ukraine’s wars simultaneously, because sooner or later Americans and Europeans will demand cuts in their countries’ military aid to their allies. This would encourage Russia to step up its invasion of Ukraine, and may embolden China to invade Taiwan under the assumption that the United States would not be able to support three wars at the same time. If they prevail, China and Russia would become the new undisputed global leaders, the argument goes.

Not a likely scenario

The doomsayers’ World War III scenario may be far-fetched. Russia’s economy is hurting badly, and its military has been much weaker than originally thought. China, too, is in an economic slump, and experts say its military is not prepared for a full-scale attack on Taiwan. The Chinese military has not been involved in a major combat situation in decades, and an attack on Taiwan would require it to overcome major logistical and training obstacles, experts say.

“I don’t think this is likely to be the beginning of a global war,” Jon B. Alterman, a former U.S. official who heads the Middle East program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me. “I’m not sure China is ready to move into Taiwan, and I’m not sure Russia has the ability to move deeper into Ukraine.”

Alterman told me that the United States is much better positioned than Russia or China to broker a diplomatic solution in the Middle East. Among other things, Washington has good relations with most Arab states, which hate Hamas and its main backer, Iran.

“There’s not a Russian role and frankly, there’s not a Chinese role. There’s not a role by anybody except for the United States” in the Middle East, Alterman told me.

It’s unclear whether Biden will get congressional approval for the additional military aid he is requesting for Israel and Ukraine. Republican opposition to new aid to Ukraine is growing. And objections to more U.S. aid to Israel may grow as well if Israel launches a much-expected ground invasion of Gaza to rescue its hostages, which may result in the deaths of women and children that Hamas uses as human shields. But Biden has made the right decision at the right time.

If the United States allows Russia’s unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country and Hamas’ intentional killings of 1,400 civilians — including 260 youths attending a music festival — to go unanswered, the world will become a much less safe place for everybody.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: www.andresoppenheimer.com.