What the betting odds say about KC Chiefs-Indianapolis Colts game. And a few tips

The Chiefs are part of the most lopsided NFL match-up on the Week 3 schedule.

On paper.

That’s using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which rates the Chiefs (2-0) as the fourth-best team in the league through two weeks, and the Colts (0-1-1) as the second-worst.

Looks can be deceiving, particularly this small of a sample size and this early in an NFL season. It isn’t quite the mismatch it appears after two weeks, as reflected by the Vegas oddsmakers.

The Chiefs are favored in Indianapolis on Sunday, though the number has dwindled to 5 1/2 points. For a frame of reference, four other NFL games feature larger spread this week.

So, what gives? Well, a few things. The Colts might be worse than anticipated but they’re still better than they’ve shown in the tie in Houston and the shutout loss in Jacksonville. They are also playing at home for the first time, a playoff hopeful with its proverbial backs against the wall already.

And, they could be a bit healthier Sunday against the Chiefs; No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman returned to practice this week.

That’ll help.

But not to the extent the Colts need. The receiver spot isn’t the biggest issue in Indianapolis. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the most glaring problem. He has collapsed when the pocket breaks down, posting a dreadful 7.4 quarterback rating when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s thrown four interceptions in two games.

The quarterbacks should account for enough of the difference in the game — and it also drives my pick (noted below) in the betting line.

The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread this season, and if you needed a reminder why betting NFL games is difficult, they provided one last week. They were favored 4 points against the Chargers last week, led by 10 with a couple of minutes left and then allowed a late touchdown while playing prevent defense. The Chiefs won 27-24, but the Chargers covered the line.

The Colts are 0-2 against the spread — they’ve been favored each of the initial two weeks but failed to win, let alone cover the line. This week, they don’t have to win in order to cover, but I’ve got them doing neither.

The pick: Chiefs 27, Colts 13 (Chiefs -5.5)

Last week’s pick: Chargers +4

My record against the spread this year: 2-0

PLUS THREE PROPS

1. Patrick Mahomes to throw at least 0.5 more passing touchdowns than Matt Ryan

I’ve noticed these types of offerings on a few of the sports wagering apps that went live in Kansas this month. Found this particular one on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The bet is that Mahomes throws more touchdowns than Ryan on Sunday. If they finish even, the bet is a loss.

I mentioned earlier that the difference in quarterbacks is the reason for my pick against the spread, so consider this doubling down.

Mahomes has seven touchdowns through two games. Ryan has one. But it’s more than two week’s of numbers. Ryan threw only 20 touchdowns in 17 starts last year. And I watched a lot of that game in Jacksonville last week. He looked every bit of 37 years old.

This is the top bet on the sheet for me this week.

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, under 45.5 rushing yards

Yes, Edwards-Helaire raced past this number a week ago, totaling 74 yards on the ground against the Chargers, but 52 of them came on one fourth-quarter carry. Edwards-Helaire’s playing time has taken about a 10% dip from a year ago and a nearly 20% dip from his 2020 rookie season.

He’s not a running back whose workload alone will be enough to generate that kind of yardage. He’ll need to be productive with the 10 or so carries he’s offered, and the Colts can make that difficult. Even in this sour start, the Colts still are allowing only 86.5 rushing yards per game. They had the 10th-best run defense in the NFL last year, too.

3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, under 3.5 receptions

Valdes-Scantling is going to have some big games for the Chiefs this year, but when they come, they are going to arrive more in terms of big chunks of yardage than they will a high volume of targets. An ability to stretch the field prompted his offseason acquisition. In Week 1, he had four catches, but he was targeted just those four times. In Week 2, he caught only two passes.

Prop bet record last week: 2-1

Prop bet season record: 3-3