What the betting odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders season finale

The Chiefs are officially playing for the No. 1 seed this weekend — that announcement came from the NFL on Thursday evening — but they will be attempting to play their way out of the opposite end of a different set of standings.

Kansas City enters its regular season finale Saturday as the AFC’s worst team against the spread at 5-10-1 this season.

Yet the large point spread remains in Week 18.

The Chiefs are favored 9 1/2 points against the Raiders, the largest line this week in games featuring AFC teams.

We’ve been down this road before — and quite frequently as of late actually.

It’s the fifth straight game in which the Chiefs have been favored by more than one possession. They’ve covered just one of the previous four such lines — and just one time in the past seven weeks overall.

Which makes my prediction fall in line with the trend.

The Chiefs have not beaten a division opponent by more than six points this season, and among the Raiders’ 10 losses, only one came by more than one possession.

Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham might not ultimately be the franchise’s solution for a long-term quarterback (Hint: he isn’t), but he’s not much of a dropoff from the way Derek Carr played this year. So that’s not the concern it might appear, particularly after Stidham led the Raiders to 34 points in his debut last week against the league’s very best defense in the 49ers.

The flip side of this is the Chiefs shouldn’t have much of a problem scoring, either — the Raiders have the 31st-best defense in football, using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The notes as always: The Chiefs are 5-10-1 against the spread this year, as previously mentioned, and the Raiders are 8-8.

They are both 8-8 in the over/under line.

The line: Chiefs -9 1/2

The pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 23

Last week’s pick: Chiefs -12 1/2

Record against the spread this year: 7-9

PLUS THREE

1. Isiah Pacheco, over 59.5 rushing yards

The Pacheco number plummeted this week after he rushed just nine times for 31 yards against the Broncos, but the Chiefs assessed early that Denver was playing more run than pass defense sets. Pacheco had rushed for at least 58 yards in seven consecutive games before last week. This is a wager on a bounce-back day.

2. Davante Adams, over 78.5 receiving yards

He’s at 90.2 yards per game this season, and Stidham made a point to target his top wideout frequently against a better secondary than the Chiefs can offer. A week ago, Adams had 7 catches (11 targets) for 153 yards.

Adams also recorded 124 yards in the previous meeting against the Chiefs in Week 5.

3. Darren Waller, over 33.5 yards

It’s been a tough year for Waller, who only two years ago was making a case among the game’s elite tight ends.

But he’s on a bit of a run as of late, with 72, 58 and 48 yards over the past three weeks.

I expect the Raiders to be trailing, in which case the offense will get pass-heavy after halftime.

Prop bet record last week: 2-1

Prop bet record this season: 24-22