Betting guide to Kentucky Derby 2024 with expert predictions, past performances, analysis
When 20 entrants running 1 ¼-mile around the Churchill Downs oval on the first Saturday in May every year, anything can happen. And the 150th Run for the Roses will be no exception.
The cavalry charge that is the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports always presents a host of potential betting opportunities, with long shots having scored upsets the past two years, including 80-1 Rich Strike in 2022.
Who could loom as the surprise this year amid a pair of solid favorites atop the morning line in Fierceness and Sierra Leone?
Here are the selections from our USA TODAY Network/Northeast Region staff and other experts, including (still to come) top finishers at the NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship and Horseplayers World Series.
2024 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD
More: Kentucky Derby 2024: Post positions, odds, analysis, with Fierceness the 5/2 favorite
PP Horse (Jockey) morning line
1. Dornoch (Saez) 20-1
2. Sierra Leone (Gaffilione) 3-1
3. Mystik Dan (Hernandez Jr.) 20-1
4. Catching Freedom (Prat) 8-1
5. Catalytic (J. Ortiz) 30-1
6. Just Steel (Asmussen) 20-1
7. Honor Marie (Curtis) 20-1
8. Just A Touch (Geroux) 10-1
9. Encino (TBD) 20-1
10. T O Password (Kimura) 30-1
11. Forever Young (Sakai) 10-1
12. Track Phantom (Rosario) 20-1
13. West Saratoga (Castanon) 50-1
14. Endlessly (Rispoli) 30-1
15. Domestic Product (I. Ortiz Jr.) 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First (Jaramillo) 50-1
17. Fierceness (Velazquez) 5/2
18. Stronghold (Fresu) 20-1
19. Resilience (Alvarado) 20-1
20. Society Man (Dettori) 50-1
OUR KENTUCKY DERBY CHOICES
Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey racing writer
1.Dornoch - With closer Sierra Leone likely to experience some traffic issues breaking from the No. 2 post position, and speedster Fierceness likely to expend a lot of early energy getting in position from the No. 17 post, there could be some money to be made. Dornoch has the rail and the speed to get up with the pace-setters and is a threat to go wire-to-wire.
8. Just a Touch - Breaks from the No. 8 post and has shown class and speed in three races, and can sit just off the pace. Got a 96 Beyer for finishing second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, and is improving. Just A Touch is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone.
17. Fierceness – Expect the morning line favorite to get up near the leaders and challenge, but it’s a lot to ask against a field this size. And following up that dominating Florida Derby performance will not be easy.
2. Sierra Leone – The Blue Grass winner will be charging hard at the end, but will have a lot of runners to pass.
Bob Jordan, Asbury Park Press sports editor
4. Catching Freedom - Showed he can rally from way out of it in the Louisiana Derby but was unable to get off to a fast start in that race because of a gate incident. Here, jockey Flavien Prat can work out a mid-pack trip for the son of Constitution. Won first-out on this oval.
8. Just a Touch - Has tactical speed and 10 furlongs should be within his range - sire Justify won the Belmont and dam sire is Tapit. Complete the exacta sweep for trainer Brad Cox.
11. Forever Young - Won UAE Derby. All 19 UAE Derby-to-Kentucky Derby starters were off the board but this one feels different.
19. Resilience - Wood Memorial winner. Can get a piece of this if Junior Alvarado rides him like a longshot, saves ground, cuts the corner and outruns tiring rivals.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Travis Stone, Churchill Downs track announcer
Brisnet Kentucky Derby past peformances via Horse Racing Nation
Note: Horses are NOT in post position order.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Betting guide to Kentucky Derby 2024, expert picks, past performances
