Who was the better pick, Tagovailoa or Herbert? Tua’s breakout season has changed the debate

When Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert share the same field at SoFi Stadium for “Sunday Night Football,” referring to their second meeting in the NFL as a rivalry would be overzealous.

To date, most of the head-to-head clashes have taken place on social media, where their respective supporters fervently argue which quarterback is the superior player.

For the first two years, the Miami Dolphins were dogged with criticism for taking Tagovailoa with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and passing on Herbert, who went to the Los Angeles Chargers with the very next pick. As Tagovailoa struggled, Herbert burst onto the scene, setting a bevy of passing records.

However, Tagovailoa’s breakout season in 2022 has changed the debate from whether Miami picked the right player to whether the franchise can maximize his talents long-term. And though the two gifted passers have been — and inevitably, will always be — compared side by side, the latter should have always been how to perceive them.

“These guys are poster boys for it, as far as how we analyze [quarterbacks],” Louis Riddick, former NFL executive and current ESPN analyst,” told the Miami Herald in a recent phone interview.

Nobody could have predicted what would occur over the past two-plus seasons, a reminder that the NFL Draft is an imperfect science with various factors at play.

Tagovailoa, a precise passer with an amazing feel, was a surefire prospect after setting numerous records at Alabama. But he faced questions about durability because of his significant hip injury that ended his final collegiate season and the additional nicks and bruises that accompanied him over the years. Herbert was the “built in a lab” prospect whose measurables and physical attributes aligned with the prototypical quarterback. However, his body of work at Oregon and perceived leadership issues caused some to wonder whether he could be the face of a franchise.

Their two professional journeys quickly took divergent paths. An injury to starter Tyrod Taylor thrust Herbert into the starting role in his second NFL game, and he became the third player in league history to throw for 300 yards in his first start. Paired with a bevy of talented skill position players, Herbert won AP Offensive Player of the Year honors and continued to break additional passing records in his second season. Critics, though, will point to his sub-500 win-loss record and the fact that the Chargers have yet to make the playoffs with him as the starter.

Meanwhile, Tagovailoa backed up Ryan Fitzpatrick before being inserted as the starter midseason. In the months that followed, Tagovailoa acknowledged he wasn’t fully healed from his hip injury and struggled at times to grasp a playbook built by Chan Gailey for Fitzpatrick. His 2021 season has been well documented, from the constant Deshaun Watson trade rumors, the failed co-offensive coordinator system that and his frosty relationship with former coach Brian Flores that just never seemed right.

The arrival of head coach Mike McDaniel, his offensive scheme tailored to Tagovailoa’s skill set and an upgraded supporting cast has transformed him in Year 3. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passer rating and has been — by most metrics — the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season.

“[Quarterback is] totally a dependent position,” Jim Nagy, executive director of the Senior Bowl, told the Miami Herald. “And I think Miami is proving that right now. Tua’s doing a great job. They’re definitely playing to his strengths.”

Riddick detailed a list of things he sees working in Tagovailoa’s favor in 2022 that wasn’t present in his first two seasons.

“One, he has his health,” Riddick said. “Two, he has a system — in terms of on the football field, in the classroom, organizationally — that supports him, that is looking to truly see him succeed and not necessarily having any kind of behind-the-scenes forces that aren’t necessarily pulling in the same direction in trying to help push him along.

“And when he gets on the field, Mike McDaniel is both encouraging him, supporting him and calling plays [that highlight his skills] ... There is an individual component to it. But, more importantly, there is a collective component to his success that every quarterback, that every player, basically has to have in order for us to really start talking about them as being one of the best to ever do it.”

As Tagoviloa, who like Herbert is eyeing his first playoff appearance, has taken his game to new heights, the struggles of the Chargers again serve as a caution against pinning a quarterback’s successes and failures solely on him. Herbert’s raw numbers still rank among the best in the league but his efficiency has taken a dip with left tackle Rashawn Slater out for the season because of a torn bicep. The receiver tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams has only been on the field for 46 out of a possible 811 offensive snaps. Herbert has also played with a defense that has allowed the fifth-most points per game since he entered the league.

Riddick knows that at some point on Sunday night or in the near future, Herbert will again launch one of his famed deep balls, fodder for Tagovailoa’s detractors. But both are fallible, Riddick said, and the conversation shouldn’t be what one can’t do but how their respective teams continue to accentuate what they can do.

“They’re very different players. They’re different people,” Nagy said. “I understand why they’re always going to be linked, because of the draft stuff. But I think they’re both good players and they’re proving that. They are winners. They are guys you can win with it. I think when we lock back on that draft class ... it’s going to be a hell of a draft class.”