How to bet K-State at OSU, UCF at KU and many more college football games in Week 6

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 6:

Kansas State (-11.5) at Oklahoma State

It’s rare to see the Wildcats favored by this much in a road conference game against a team that isn’t named Kansas. You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find another example of the betting market showing this much love to the Wildcats. But it’s not hard to see why this spread is so large. Oklahoma State has been downright bad in its past few games. Still, the Cowboys are at home and coming off an idle week. Mike Gundy could find a way to pull off an upset here. If you’re not comfortable laying this many points with the Wildcats, may I suggest betting the first quarter over? It was at 12.5 on Wednesday evening. K-State has scored on its opening drive in every game this season and Oklahoma State should come out guns blazing in front of a sellout crowd. Fourteen points in 15 minutes seems very possible.

UCF (+2.5) at Kansas

Personally, I don’t want to touch this game until I know for sure which quarterbacks will be playing. John Ryhs Plumlee could make his return for UCF this week. So could Jalon Daniels for Kansas. If both play, the over (64.5) seems like a good bet. How many stops will these defenses get? If both are out, maybe the under is the way to go. I would favor KU by more than a field goal if Daniels is on the field. New Big 12 teams are off to a 1-7 start in conference games, and that includes an 0-2 mark for the Knights. But Plumlee could give UCF a small edge if Jason Bean is the one leading the KU offense.

LSU (-6.5) at Missouri

Are the Tigers for real? No one will be asking that question on Saturday afternoon if Missouri can pull off an upset against LSU. There are certainly reasons to like Mizzou and its offense in this battle of ranked SEC teams. Luther Burden might be the best wide receiver in the nation. But LSU was a preseason darling for a reason. If you want to back Missouri, I would recommend waiting to see if the number jumps to seven closer to kickoff.

Best Bets

Last Week: 1-5-1

Season Record: 15-18-2

Oklahoma (+6.5) vs. Texas: Don’t be surprised if the biggest game of the season in the Big 12 turns into a dud. The Longhorns might be the best team in the entire country, but few seem willing to embrace them as a dominant squad like Alabama and Georgia in recent years. Oklahoma has been impressive through five games, but this is a huge step up in class for the Sooners from (checks notes) Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Iowa State. Steve Sarkisian knows how to get his players up for this game and led Texas to a 49-0 win over Oklahoma last season, albeit without Dillon Gabriel on the field. I expect the Horns to win comfortably again. Pick: Texas.

Fresno State (-5.5) at Wyoming: The Cowboys already own home victories over Texas Tech and Appalachian State this season, but I’m not going to let that scare me away from backing Fresno State in this spot. The Bulldogs are off to an undefeated start, and they are more than just an offensive power this season. Fresno State has only allowed a total of 19 points in their past three games. It has also owned Wyoming of late, winning the past three in this series by scores of 30-0, 17-0 and 27-3. Pick: Fresno State.

Sam Houston (+17.5) at Liberty: The market has been slow to embrace Liberty as the class of Conference-USA this season, and I’m not sure why. New coach Jamey Chadwell is off to an impressive start, and the school he left behind (Coastal Carolina) is really struggling. The Flames are 4-0 against the spread, and I don’t see that changing with more than a week to prepare for a home game against Sam Houston. Pick: Liberty.

Connecticut (+9.5) at Rice: Several predictive models have Rice favored by nearly two touchdowns, so I see value on backing the Owls at this number. UConn is one of the few winless teams remaining in college football and the Huskies really struggle on offense, especially away from home. As long as JT Daniels stays healthy, I like Rice to win by double digits. Pick: Rice.

Alabama (-1) at Texas A&M: I know the Crimson Tide aren’t as dominant as they usually are, but they have still looked like the class of the SEC West over the past two weeks with double-digit wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is still trying to prove itself. You normally won’t find Nick Saban’s team favored by less than a touchdown. Might as well take them straight up while you can. Pick: Alabama money line.

Purdue (+1.5) at Iowa: This might be the grossest bet I have ever endorsed. And yet, here I am telling you to put money on a game that features Iowa playing with its backup quarterback. My reasoning: The Hawkeyes can’t be any worse on offense than they were with Cade McNamara at QB. Purdue is only averaging 18.5 points on the road this season, and none of those games came against the Hawkeyes defense. Iowa could win this game simply by kicking field goals and getting defensive scores. Pick: Iowa money line.

Washington State (+3.5) at UCLA: What exactly have the Bruins done to deserve being favored in this game? Washington State has crushed every team in its path this season and will have much to prove in its final trip to the Rose Bowl for a Pac-12 game.

Upset Pick of the Week

Washington State (+150) at UCLA: My best bets have been more fade than follow lately, but this is one area where my picks have continued to pay off all season, as we’re 3-2 on upset predictions. Let’s try and keep the good times rolling by backing the Cougars to cover the spread and win outright at UCLA.

Other lines worth considering

Maryland (+20.5) at Ohio State: The Terrapins are off to an undefeated start and now they get a chance to prove themselves against mighty Ohio State. Maryland will treat this like its Super Bowl, and I think that will lead to a competitive game. Lean: Maryland.

TCU (-6.5) at Iowa State: One of these teams has to bounce back from an ugly loss last week. I’m tempted to take the Horned Frogs. Lean: TCU.

Colorado State (-1.5) at Utah State: The Rams started out as the underdog in this matchup, but they have what it takes to win as a favorite on the road against a team with lackluster defense. Lean: Colorado State.

Texas Tech (-1) at Baylor: I can’t figure out either of these teams, but some predictive models like the Red Raiders by a touchdown. Lean: Texas Tech.

South Florida (-3.5) at UAB: The Bulls have been covering machines of late. It’s not hard to see them winning by more than this number here. Lean: South Florida.