Best College Football Bets Week 8: K-State, KU, Mizzou and picks for all Big 12 games
Another week. Another winning record.
Despite getting off to a slow start this season, my best college football bets have delivered like your favorite postal worker over the past five weeks, building a record of 16-9 with nothing worse than a 3-2 mark at any point during that stretch. That is good enough to push my season-long record four games above .500.
Not too shabby!
There are plenty more great matchups on the schedule this weekend. Kansas, K-State and Missouri are all back in action, plus lots of other important clashes.
Here are some thoughts on those games, and much more, from Week 8 of the college football season:
Kansas (+9.5) at Baylor
If you waited around until Saturday morning to bet on the Jayhawks last week, you walked away from their game against Oklahoma with a smile on your face even though the Sooners gained 701 yards of offense and won 52-42.
Kansas, as it has done all season, covered the closing spread of 10.5 points. Lance Leipold’s team is 6-0-1 against the spread this year, with its worst performance resulting in a push against TCU.
Unfortunately, I listed KU in my best bets last week when the Jayhawks were only catching 9.5 points. So I wasn’t so lucky.
Waiting could once again be a wise strategy for KU this week. This line dropped close to a touchdown earlier this week as questions lingered about the status of Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen, who suffered an apparent head injury against West Virginia.
But the line grew to 9.5 when Baylor coach Dave Aranda announced that Shapen had returned to practice. If word gets out that he is officially active on Saturday, the line will likely push past 10 and create value on Kansas.
Or, if Shapen is unexpectedly ruled out, you could take the Jayhawks at the current line or anything above a touchdown.
The Jayhawks have played well enough on offense to win their past two games with backup Jason Bean running the show. Their defense has simply been outmatched. Baylor might not be able to move the ball as effortlessly as TCU and Oklahoma were able to do the past weeks, even with Shapen. KU seems like a good bet if you can get the Jayhawks at anything higher than 10.
K-State (+3.5) at TCU
First place in the Big 12 standings will be on the line when K-State heads to Amon G. Carter Stadium for a prime time game against TCU on Saturday.
It will be an interesting matchup that features a big contrast in styles.
TCU has the best offense in the Big 12. It is averaging 45.8 points per game and 7.7 yards per play behind quarterback Max Duggan and star receiver Quentin Johnson.
K-State will counter with one of the top defenses in the conference. The Wildcats are allowing just 16.7 points and 354.5 yards per game.
This game might come at a good time for the Wildcats. They were off last week, which gave several of their best players an opportunity to get healthy. The Horned Frogs have played four emotional games in four consecutive weeks, beating rival SMU, Oklahoma, Kansas and then Oklahoma State in double overtime last week.
Can Sonny Dykes have his team ready to play its best five weeks in a row? Or will momentum carry them to another win?
I could see this game going either way. Might as well take the Wildcats and the points.
Vanderbilt (+13.5) at Missouri
This might be a good time to back the Tigers.
They have covered the spread in three straight SEC games and now they get to play Vanderbilt at home after getting a week off. The Commodores haven’t covered a spread against a SEC opponent this season. They have also lost 14 straight conference games.
It also helps Mizzou that the line has dropped below two touchdowns after opening at 15.5.
Strange betting line in the Big 12
Texas is surprisingly favored by 6.5 points on the road against Oklahoma State.
If both teams are healthy, this game figures to be closer to a pick em. But the betting line suggests that oddsmakers aren’t expecting Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders to play.
For the record, Sanders hasn’t missed any of Oklahoma State’s games this season and played until the better end against TCU last week. Mike Gundy has not shared any injury updates since then.
I’m not sure what to recommend here. If Sanders suits up, then the Cowboys have lots of value at the current number. But if he is unable to play then the Longhorns will have a big advantage in a game that figures to be a shootout. I suppose my advice is to wait.
Trends to consider
Our three “local” colleges all have winning records against the spread. Kansas (6-0-1), K-State (4-1-1) and Missouri (4-2) have combined for a record of 14-3-2 against the closing line this season.
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer has never lost when he has been given more than eight days to prepare for a game during his short tenure with the Gamecocks. He is 3-0 in those situations with wins over Florida, North Carolina and Kentucky despite entering all three games as an underdog. South Carolina didn’t play last week and is getting 3.5 points against Texas A&M at home on Saturday.
Tulane has gone 27-11-1 against the spread in home games since Kansas native Willie Fritz took over as coach. The Green Wave are favored by seven against Memphis this week.
California is a hard team to figure out. The Bears went on the road last week and lost to previously hapless Colorado, but they are 3-0 at home including a 49-31 win over Arizona. Perhaps they are simply good at home and bad on the road. Coach Justin Wilcox boasts a 6-0 record against the spread in home games when the Bears are favored by seven or more points, per the Action Network. Cal is getting 7.5 against Washington.
Best Bets
Syracuse (+13.5) at Clemson: I like the Orange. They are undefeated and they currently reside at No. 15 in my top 25 rankings. I have been voting for them all month. But that isn’t going to stop me from fading them this week. Syracuse has benefited greatly from playing five of its first six games against average teams at home. Its lone road game came against lowly Connecticut. I doubt that properly prepared the Orange for the environment or the opponent they will encounter on Saturday at Clemson. Pick: Clemson.
Boise State (+2.5) at Air Force: I can see why Boise State is a trendy upset pick in some circles, but I’m not buying it. The Broncos have been much better since they switched offensive coordinators and quarterbacks following a humiliating loss to UTEP, but they bounced back with two against hapless San Diego State and struggling Fresno State. And both those games were at home. Things will be much more difficult on the road against a stronger team. Air Force has been dynamite at home this season, beating Northern Iowa 48-17, Colorado 41-10, Nevada 48-20 and Navy 13-10. The Falcons also beat Boise State last season on the blue turf. The Broncos are 1-2 on the road with its only win coming at New Mexico. Give me the service academy here. Pick: Air Force.
West Virginia (+7) at Texas Tech: I was fully prepared to bet on the Red Raiders this week, because they are a much better team at home than they are outside of Lubbock. But then I saw the spread balloon to a touchdown and switched allegiances to the Mountaineers. This game should be a pick em. ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects Texas Tech by just two. The Red Raiders are undefeated at home this season, but their wins against decent teams both came by three in overtime against Houston and Texas. This game should also be close. West Virginia has won three of its past four and might be the better team in this matchup. I will gladly take the underdog with the points. Pick: West Virginia.
Marshall (+12.5) at James Madison: The Dukes saw their perfect season come to an end last week on the road against Georgia Southern. Here’s guessing they bounce back at home this weekend against Marshall. James Madison has been untouchable in its own stadium this season, going 3-0 by a cumulative score of 147-27. The Thundering Herd did manage to beat Notre Dame on the rude in September, but they have done nothing of note since. They are 1-3 in their past four games with losses to Bowling Green, Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette. I like the Dukes to win comfortably. Pick: James Madison.
Hawaii (+5.5) at Colorado State: I may regret doing this. The last time I tried to fade Colorado State, the Rams improbably beat Nevada 17-14 thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns and a running-into-the-kicker-penalty that gave them multiple chances to win the game on the final play of regulation. Here’s hoping bad luck is like lighting and doesn’t strike twice. Colorado State is 1-5 and its only victory came by three points against another awful team. Hawaii is nothing special, but the Rainbow Warriors have covered the spread as underdogs in each of their past two games, losing by two at San Diego State and then thumping Nevada 31-16 at home. They have also shown signs of life on offense since they switched to Brayden Schager at quarterback the past three weeks. Meanwhile, Colorado State hasn’t scored more than 19 points in a game all season. Pass me a Mai Tai and give me the underdog. Pick: Hawaii.
Last week: 3-2. Season record ATS: 19-15-1.
