Best College Football Bets Week 4: Kansas vs. Duke, Big 12 championship odds and more
Before we dive into the best bets and most fascinating odds in college football this week, let’s peer into the future and predict which Big 12 team might emerge from a wide-open conference race as league champion.
The favorite is Oklahoma. Coming off a convincing victory at Nebraska, the Sooners are now only getting 2-to-1 odds (or +200) to win the Big 12. Texas is up next, getting 3-to-1 odds (or +300).
If you are sold on either of those teams, you might as well go ahead and put some money on them now. Their odds are only going to go down until they suffer their first conference loss. And you might not want to bet on them after that.
But there’s really not much fun in placing a futures bet on a favorite. Going with a long shot is much more exciting. Fortunately, there are some intriguing options in the Big 12.
Here are the best current odds for each darkhorse team:
Oklahoma State +700
Baylor +1000
Iowa State +1800
TCU +2500
Kansas State +2500
Kansas +5000
Texas Tech +12000
West Virginia +12000
For the record, I confidently bet $1 on the Jayhawks earlier this week when they were getting +6600. Why not?
I would also consider wagering more on Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State or TCU.
The Bears were preseason favorites, but you can get them at a discount right now because they lost a road game against BYU that has no impact on the league standings. Oklahoma State has the offense to win the Big 12, but maybe not the defense. Iowa State is undefeated and finally beat Iowa this season. TCU is becoming a trendy darkhorse pick.
K-State might also be worth a look if you think its loss to Tulane was a fluke.
The best value might be with Iowa State. The Cyclones are home favorites against Baylor on Saturday. You won’t find them at +1800 anymore if they win that game.
But my current lean is with the Cowboys. They are ranked in the top 10 and might have the best offense in the conference. Spencer Sanders was the Big 12’s first-team quarterback last season. I’m not quite sure why their odds are so much longer than what you’re currently getting from Oklahoma and Texas.
Kansas is favored against a P5 college football team?
Believe it. The Jayhawks are favored by 7.5 points against Duke.
This is the first time they have been favored against a team from a power conference since 2009. It’s fair to wonder how Kansas will handle all the positive attention it has received this week. This is new territory.
Can they keep playing with the edge that helped them win their first three games, all by double digits?
If so, you have to like their chances, even against an undefeated opponent. The Jayhawks have been one of the hottest teams against the spread for a while now. They have covered in six straight games dating back to last season.
It’s just too bad ESPN messed up and didn’t send “College Gameday” to Lawrence for this epic football game between basketball schools.
K-State looks to bounce back at Oklahoma
There is reason to hope for K-State in this game, even though the Wildcats are 13-point underdogs on the road.
Few teams have given the Sooners more trouble than the Wildcats in recent years. Chris Klieman is 2-1 against Oklahoma and K-State won its last trip to Norman 38-35. That victory came after the Wildcats lost at home to Arkansas State. Can history repeat itself with K-State now coming off a loss to Tulane?
Maybe, but it’s important to remember that Skylar Thompson was the quarterback for that game. Adrian Martinez has underwhelmed as his replacement. He will need to play by far his best game of the season for the Wildcats to keep this one close.
Two bad Tigers
Missouri hasn’t come close to covering the spread since its opening game against Louisiana Tech.
Auburn is 0-3 against the spread this season despite playing two of its home games against Mercer and San Jose State.
These are two bad teams that call themselves the Tigers. Something has gotta give as Mizzou heads to Auburn as a seven-point underdog.
Elsewhere around the Big 12
West Virginia (-1.5) at Virginia Tech: The Mountaineers have just one win, against FCS Towson, and they’re still favored on the road over the Hokies.
Baylor (+2.5) at Iowa State: This should be the game of the day in the Big 12. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread this season, beating their projected odds by exactly six total points.
TCU (-2) at SMU: Call it the Sonny Dykes Bowl. Most notably, the over/under total for this game is a whopping 71 points.
Texas (+6.5) at Texas Tech: The Longhorns are 3-0 against the spread this season, but this is their first road game. Texas Tech is expecting a sellout crowd.
Fascinating odds across the country
Hawaii at New Mexico State might be the pillow-fight of the season. They have just one win between them (Hawaii over Duquesne) and both teams have lost by 53 or more in a game. You won’t find two worse FBS teams going head-to-head this year. New Mexico State is favored by 4.5, if you’re interested.
Let’s go to the other end of the spectrum: USC is 3-0 against the spread this season. So is Oregon State. They play each other in Corvallis, Ore. this weekend.
How much have Iowa and Rutgers struggled on offense this season? Well, they play each other on Saturday and the over/under for that game is 34 points.
Only one ranked team is an underdog against an unranked team this week. That team is Baylor, which is getting 2.5 points at Iowa State.
There are three games involving ranked teams this week. Clemson is favored by seven of Wake Forest, Tennessee is favored by 11 over Florida and Arkansas is getting a field goal against Texas A&M.
College Football Best Bets Week 4
Now that we are four weeks into the college football season, it’s easy for an attentive bettor to realize which teams he or she should trust the rest of the season. Sixteen different teams are a perfect 3-0 against the spread so far. My favorite teams to back from that group have been Kansas, USC, South Alabama and Texas.
But there are also plenty of teams to fade. Nebraska and UTEP, for example, are both 0-4 against the spread. Several more are 0-3.
I chose to highlight some of my favorite teams to bet against this week. Here’s to hoping I can build off last week’s 4-1 record.
UNLV -2.5 at Utah State: A month ago, I would have picked the Aggies to cover against this spread in a heartbeat. Utah State won 11 games last year and was one of the best teams in the Mountain West. UNLV won two games and was one of the worst teams in the entire country. How quickly times change. UNLV is now on the rise and Utah State looks hapless. The Rebels are 3-0 against the spread this season and are coming off 58-27 annihilation of North Texas. The Aggies are 0-3 against the spread and lost their last game 35-7 at home against FCS Weber State. Utah State is coming off a bye here, but that doesn’t bother me in the slightest. Pick: UNLV.
Florida International +31 at Western Kentucky: The Hilltopers are off to a 2-1 start, with their only loss coming in overtime at Indiana. But they covered! They should have no problems running up the score against an awful team like Florida International. The Panthers rank 130th (out of 131 teams) in ESPN’s Football Power Index and already have a 41-12 loss to Texas State on their resume. Pick: Western Kentucky.
UCLA -21 at Colorado: If the Buffaloes somehow manage to cover this spread, it would be their biggest “victory” of the season. Colorado is easily the worst power-conference team in the nation. The Buffs have already lost to TCU 38-13, to Air Force 41-10 and to Minnesota 49-7. CU’s over/under win total for the season has dropped all the way to 0.5. I would advise taking the under. The Bruins are nothing special, but they are averaging 40.7 points per game. That should be enough to win this game by more than three touchdowns. Pick: UCLA.
Navy +17 at East Carolina: The Pirates are 3-0 against the spread this season, and they are one play away from being undefeated in real life. Remember, they lost to North Carolina State 21-20 in Week 1. I like their chances of winning another blowout out here against a Navy team that is 0-2 with a home loss to Delaware on its resume. Pick: East Carolina.
North Texas +12.5 at Memphis: I made the mistake of betting on North Texas to keep things close against SMU earlier this season and immediately realized the error of my ways. The Mean Green lost that game 48-10. They are now coming off a 58-27 road loss against UNLV. Did you know North Texas hasn’t won a nonconference road game since 2018? Pick: Memphis.
Bonus best bet
Akron +29.5 at Liberty: There is one more team I want to fade this weekend. Akron is coming off a pair of horrific losses against Michigan State (52-0) and Tennessee (63-6). The Zips can’t possibly have any confidence going into this game. Liberty is 2-1 and came within an eyelash of beating Wake Forest in its last game. I like a blowout here. Pick: Liberty.
Last week: 4-1. Season record ATS: 6-7-1.
