Best Bets College Football Week 13: KU at KSU, Mizzou, Big 12 predictions and more

One thing to consider before making bets on the final full weekend of the college football season is motivation.

Some teams have a lot to play for right now. Other teams could care less about their next game and are ready for a vacation.

With that in mind, here is a list of the 13 teams that are still fighting for bowl eligibility: Georgia Tech, Miami, Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, Rice, UAB, UTEP, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Buffalo, Louisiana and Southern Mississippi.

If you were on the fence about betting on one of those teams, maybe that is enough to make you follow through with a wager. Buffalo (-4) vs. Kent State, Southern Miss (-3) at Louisiana-Monroe, UTEP (+17) at UTSA and Michigan State (+18) at Penn State seem like decent plays.

But I wouldn’t touch Miami (+6.5) at Pitt. I doubt the Hurricanes are all that motivated to keep their disappointing season going.

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 13:

Kansas (+11.5) at K-State

Two teams that have rewarded their backers handsomely this season will square off in the most meaningful Sunflower Showdown rivalry game we have seen in quite some time. KU is bowl eligible. K-State is one win (or a Texas loss) away from the Big 12 championship game. More importantly for our purposes, both teams have gone 7-3-1 against the spread this season. If Lance Leipold can find a way to get the Jayhawks playing the way they were early in the season, this figures to be a close game. But that hasn’t happened much recently.

KU has failed to cover its past three games as an underdog and is coming off a 55-14 home loss against Texas. K-State is playing much better at the moment. The Wildcats are averaging 48 points per game when Will Howard starts at quarterback. They have also won their past two games by an aggregate score of 79-34. Chris Klieman is 3-0 against KU, winning all three games by an average margin of 28 points. Things could be different this time, as KU is much improved compared to the past three seasons. But I’m thinking the Wildcats will find a way to win by three scores.

Arkansas (-3) at Missouri

How badly do the Tigers and Eli Drinkwitz want to get a bowl game? That could be a determining factor in this rivalry game. Arkansas clinched its spot in the postseason by defeating Mississippi 42-27 last week. The Razorbacks might not be as fired up for this matchup as the Tigers. Missouri kept its bowl hopes alive last week by thrashing New Mexico State 45-14. But it lost its last SEC home game against Kentucky 21-17. This figures to be a close game. Might as well go with the team that has more to play for.

Around the Big 12

West Virginia (+9.5) at Oklahoma State: The Mountaineers have been eliminated from a bowl and there is a good chance this will be Neal Brown’s final game coaching for West Virginia. This team is also abysmal on the road. WVU was crushed in all three of its first Big 12 away games. You don’t have to like the Cowboys to fade the Mountaineers here.

Iowa State (+10) at TCU: The last time Iowa State was a double-digit underdog it covered easily on the road against Texas. If the Cyclones come to play, they could also cover this number against the Horned Frogs. But Iowa State also has nothing to play for this week, while TCU needs to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. I will take TCU.

Oklahoma (-2.5) at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have won their last two games and now have a chance to beat Oklahoma and Texas in the same season. I think they show up here and play their best at home against a team that hasn’t been great on the road. Wreck ‘em!

Baylor (+9) at Texas: It will be a challenge for Dave Aranda to get the Bears ready for this game on a short week after the way they lost to TCU. The Longhorns seem like the play here, as they need a win to stay alive in the Big 12 championship race and are coming off an easy victory at KU.

Best Bets

Last week was one of my best. I finished 4-1, with only Tennessee letting me down. Let’s stay hot and end the regular season well above .500!

Air Force (-1.5) at San Diego State: Betting on service academies has been one of my most profitable plays all season long. I’m not about to stop. Navy won outright last week as a 17-point underdog at UCF. I’m turning to the air this week. Air Force has had its way with bad and average teams all season, and I think that trend continues on Saturday at San Diego State. The Aztecs have won five of six, but all of those victories came against awful opponents. They will struggle to stop Air Force’s triple option in the final game of the season and the Falcons will be flying high. With such a small spread, I’m betting the money line. Pick: Air Force.

BYU (-6.5) at Stanford: Let’s keep this one simple. The Cougars have won back-to-back games and seem to be getting better as the season comes to an end. Stanford has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in five straight games. Give me the team that doesn’t look like a corpse. Pick: BYU.

Iowa State at TCU (O/U 47.5): Another bet that is easy to explain! The under has hit in seven straight games involving the Cyclones. They have the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. TCU is going to have to do all the scoring to push this over. But that seems unlikely given that the under has hit in three straight TCU games. Pick: Under.

Tulsa (+12) at Houston: Not only are these two teams heading in different directions, they are two teams on opposite ends of the motivation spectrum. The Cougars are pushing to make the best bowl possible and have won five of their past six games, including an impressive 42-3 victory at East Carolina last week. Tulsa has been eliminated from a bowl and has failed to cover the spread in its past seven games. This could easily turn into a blowout for the home team. Pick: Houston.

Western Kentucky (-6.5) at Florida Atlantic: The Hilltoppers might not be able to hang with Auburn, but they are extremely skilled at crushing bad teams within their own conference. Earlier this season, they beat Florida International 73-0, Middle Tennessee State 35-17, Charlotte 59-7 and Rice 45-10. Florida Atlantic will be playing at home with a bowl trip on the line, but I don’t think the Owls are good enough to keep this within a touchdown. Pick: Western Kentucky.

Last week: 4-1. Season record ATS: 31-28-1.

Other lines worth considering

These suggestions sadly only went 1-3-1 last week.

Notre Dame (+5.5) at USC: Do the Trojans have enough left in the tank to play their best against the Fighting Irish after winning an emotional game against UCLA last week? I’m not so sure they do. Notre Dame has also been dynamite on the road all season. Pick: Notre Dame.

Troy (-13.5) at Arkansas State: The best team in the Sun Belt could easily cruise against one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt this weekend. Pick: Troy.

Utah (-29.5) at Colorado: The Buffaloes are terrible and have gone 2-9 against the spread this season. The Utes are really good and have covered big numbers several times this season. Pick: Utah.

Utah State at Boise State (-15.5): Most computer projections have the Broncos winning this game by more than three touchdowns. Pick: Boise State.

UTEP (+17.5) at UTSA: The Miners are still fighting for bowl eligibility. They should bring their best effort fort his game. The Roadrunners are looking ahead to the Conference USA championship game. UTSA might not have much interest in running up the score here. Pick: UTEP.