Best Bets College Football Week 11: KU, K-State, Mizzou, picks for every Big 12 game

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are some thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 11:

Missouri (+20.5) at Tennessee

Tennessee was no match for Georgia last weekend in a 27-13 road loss. But that might say more about the Bulldogs than the Volunteers. The last ranked team that looked pathetic while losing to Georgia was Oregon, and the Ducks responded by winning their next eight games (and covering the spread in seven of them). It’s not hard to envision a similar bounce-back effort from the Volunteers. They are still one of the best teams in the country and they will be out to prove it against Missouri at home this weekend. That makes this a daunting challenge for the Tigers. If you’re looking for reasons to back Mizzou, it has covered the spread as a road underdog in its last three SEC road games.

Kansas State (+2.5) at Baylor

This is essentially an elimination game for the Wildcats. If they want to remain in the hunt for a Big 12 championship, they can’t afford to lose to the Bears. It will also be an important game for Baylor, which controls its own destiny in the league race. A few things bode well for K-State in this matchup. For starters, it has responded well after its other two losses of the season with wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats seem to play their best when their backs are against the wall. K-State also sports the best fourth-down defense in the Big 12. Allowing a 33.3% conversion rate could be important against a hyper-aggressive coach like Dave Aranda. But strong rushing attacks have given the Wildcats fits at times this season, and the Bears average 210.3 yards per game on the ground. Baylor has covered the spread in its past three games. Another trend worth monitoring: The over has hit in six straight Baylor games.

Kansas (+3.5) at Texas Tech

The Jayhawks secured bowl eligibility by defeating Oklahoma State last week. The Red Raiders need two more victories to join Kansas in the postseason. For that reason, they should be motivated for this game. Texas Tech has been a strong home team this season, going 4-1 with victories over Murray State, Houston, Texas and West Virginia. But it lost some of its Lubbock magic in its last home game, a 45-17 loss against Baylor. Kansas has lost two straight road games but managed to cover the spread as an underdog in one of them. The Jayhawks are 7-1-1 against the spread the season, and they’re getting some value here with a number high than a field goal.

Around the Big 12

TCU (+7.5) at Texas: This should be a very interesting game to bet. If you like the Horned Frogs to win you can get great odds (+220). If you like them to cover you can get more than a touchdown of insurance points. If you like the Longhorns, you can get creative and bet on them to cover the first-half spread (-4.5). I am tempted to put some money on both sides. Texas has been incredible in the first half of games all season. The second half is where they have encountered problems. TCU has been the complete opposite, often falling behind early and then crushing teams late. It’s not hard to envision Texas racing to an early lead and then sweating out the final moments ... again.

Oklahoma (-8) at West Virginia: The Mountaineers are much better at home than they are on the road, which gives them a chance to cover this number and maybe even pull an upset against the Sooners. But I don’t think their defense is good enough to pose many problems against an elite offense. Give me Oklahoma.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (over/under 48.5): I like the Cyclones here. You can read why below in the Best Bets section. But the under is also an enticing bet. Iowa State’s past five games have all gone under the projected total. So have Oklahoma State’s past two. The Cyclones have the best defense in the Big 12 and the Cowboys have been crippled by injuries. I will be surprised if this turns into a shootout.

Best Bets

I got back to my winning ways last week with a nice little 3-2 Saturday. Let’s do even better this time!

Fresno State (-9) at UNLV: The Bulldogs were my preseason pick to represent the Group of Five conferences in one of the playoff bowls. Alas, they lost sensational quarterback Jake Haener to injury and sputtered to a 1-4 start. But he’s back in command of the offense now and Fresno State has won four in a row to put itself within reach of a Mountain West championship. Haener threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns last week against Hawaii. I’m thinking he’s back. Now comes a road trip again UNLV, which has lost four straight games and has appeared lifeless on offense while doing so. Talk about a mismatch. This is my favorite bet of the week. Pick: Fresno State.

Iowa State (-1.5) at Oklahoma State: Fading Matt Campbell in games with small point spreads has been one of my most profitable strategies of the season. But I’m going to back him and the Cyclones this weekend. Why? Iowa State got right last week during a blowout victory over West Virginia. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has been decimated by injuries and sent its JV squad to Kansas last week. The Cowboys have lost two in a row by ugly margins and I’m not expecting them to get healthy before kickoff. Nor am I expecting them to do much of anything against the best defense in the Big 12. Pick: Iowa State money line at -115.

Missouri (+20.5) at Tennessee: As outlined above, this is an awful spot for Missouri. Pick: Tennessee.

Arizona (+19.5) at UCLA: Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the perfect quarterback to bet as a favorite. He never takes his foot off the gas. I’m not sure why he isn’t in the Heisman picture. The Bruins surrendered 36 points last weekend at Arizona State and still covered the spread because DTR kept scoring touchdowns and UCLA hung half a hundred on the Sun Devils. It’s a little scary to lay this many points, but the Bruins are 3-0 as favorites in Pac-12 play this season, covering spreads of 22, 16.5 and 11. Arizona has also lost all of its conference road games by double digits. One more reason to like this number: ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects UCLA by nearly four touchdowns. Pick: UCLA.

Liberty (-14.5) at Connecticut: I originally had UConn in my best bets last week, but decided to swap the Huskies out at the last minute for Wake Forest. Stupid! The Huskies improved to 8-2 (against the spread) with a 27-10 win over Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Wake Forest no-showed in a loss to North Carolina State. I’m not making the same mistake again. I like the Huskies to cover this week against Liberty. Yes, Hugh Freeze’s team is ranked and is coming off impressive wins over BYU and Arkansas. But Liberty has also played down to its competition this season, failing to cover against Southern Mississippi, Akron, UMass and Gardner-Webb. Furthermore, there is a chance they won’t have star running back Dae Dae Hunter because of an injury. UConn has already beaten Fresno State and Boston College at home this season. It won’t surprise me if Jim Mora finds a way to keep win this game, too. Pick: UConn.

Last week: 3-2. Season record ATS: 25-24-1.

Other lines worth considering

Boise State (-20.5) at Nevada: The Broncos could easily cover this number against an opponent that struggles to score and has lost seven straight games.

Washington (+12.5) at Oregon: I don’t see the Huskies getting many stops in this game. They will have to score a ton to cover this number against the Ducks.

Stanford (+23.5) at Utah: I’m not sure how Stanford won at Notre Dame earlier this season. The Cardinal have been a train wreck ever since and just lost at home to Washington State 52-14. This is a lot of points, but I will still happily fade them against Utah.

Army at Troy (O/U 48): Troy has a strong run defense and a slow-paced offense. Army runs the triple option. Sounds like an under to me.

UCF (+1.5) at Tulane: The Green Wave have the nation’s best record against the spread this season at 8-1.

Colorado (+34) at USC: The Trojans have failed to cover as a favorite in back-to-back games. But that might change on a short week at home against an awful Colorado team.

Alabama (-11.5) at Ole Miss: Nick Saban’s team has already lost twice on the road this season.