Best Bets College Football Week 10: Tennessee at Georgia, every Big 12 game and more

Let’s say you predicted the Tennessee Volunteers to start 8-0 and vault to the top of the College Football Playoff Rankings back in August before the season got underway.

You probably would have bet a pretty penny on most of their games. Had you wagered $100 on Tennessee to cover the spread every week, you would currently have won close to $600 by now.

The Volunteers have won lots of money for their backers this season. And for some strange reason, they are still getting favorable lines from oddsmakers. Despite winning all of their games by an aggregate score of 395-168, they have been underdogs twice and they have only been favored by double digits five times.

They are 7-1 against the spread, with their only “loss” coming on a backdoor cover against Florida.

I’m not entirely sure why Tennessee was catching nine points at home against Alabama or why it is catching 8 1/2 points at Georgia this weekend. I have the Volunteers ranked No. 1 on my top 25 ballot and have backed them as a good bet in this space a few times before.

But I will gladly take those points and bet on them again this week. The Bulldogs are only 3-4 against the spread this season and haven’t played a ranked team since their opener against Oregon. Granted, they won that game 49-3. But that was Oregon’s first game with a new quarterback and a new coach. Georgia hasn’t looked nearly as good in other games.

Georgia will benefit from playing at home and its defense will likely create at least some issues for Rocky Top, but Tennessee has proven it can score and win in any environment. It won its last road game 40-13 at LSU.

Tennessee is the better team. I like its chances of winning this game as a money line underdog and really like its chances of covering the spread. There’s no reason to stop betting on the Vols right now.

Here are some more thoughts on various betting lines and games from Week 9 of the college football season:

Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State

Don’t feel bad if you’re wondering why the nation’s No. 13 team is a home underdog in this game. You’re not alone. The Longhorns are 1-6 in true road games under coach Steve Sarkisian, including an 0-2 mark in Big 12 play this season. K-State has been lights out at home this year, going 4-1 behind a string of dominant performances from its defense. Texas is coming off an open week and has owned this series in recent years, winning five straight against K-State dating back to 2016. The Longhorns can also pose problems for K-State’s defense on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. But the Wildcats have more momentum heading into this matchup. The home underdog seems like the play here.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Kansas

I was surprised to see this line open so low. I was expecting the Cowboys to be favored by about 7.5. At that number, I was fully prepared to bet the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels may return to the lineup this week for Lance Leipold’s team and Oklahoma State is still dealing with injuries at several key spots after losing 48-0 at K-State. There’s a chance Spencer Sanders might not play or will be limited if he does. With KU needing one more win to secure bowl eligibility, I loved the Jayhawks’ chances of staying within a touchdown against the Pokes. But I’m not so sure at this number. It may be worth waiting to assess the injury report on both sides closer to kickoff.

Kentucky (-1.5) at Missouri

The Tigers have been one of the most profitable teams in the SEC lately. They have won two straight games and covered the spread in four of their past five games. The Wildcats are on the other end of the spectrum, having lost three of their past four and going 2-2 against the spread. Maybe that’s why the line has bounced around so much for this game. Kentucky is also dealing with injury issues at several position. For those reasons, I’m leaning Missouri at home here.

Around the Big 12

Texas Tech (+9.5) at TCU: The Red Raiders have failed to win a single game away from home this season, and that seems unlikely to change against the Horned Frogs. TCU is 6-1-1 against the spread this season. This game could also easily go over its projection of 69 points.

Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma: The Sooners are at home but the Bears are the more balanced team. Dave Aranda seems to have figured some things out over the past few weeks and they are the far superior team on defense. Dillon Gabriel has needed to play close to perfect for Oklahoma to win recent games. Baylor feels like the play.

West Virginia (+7) at Iowa State: This might be the game that decides last place in the Big 12 standings. The Mountaineers lost their first two conference road games 38-20 at Texas and 48-10 at Texas Tech. So the Cyclones are understandably favored. But they have no offense and have lost five straight games. Laying a touchdown with them is a lot to ask.

Best Bets

I appeared destined for a winning record last week until Arizona ruined my USC -15.5 bet with a backdoor cover in the final minute. I’m still angry about it. My record dropped to exactly .500 on the season, but 19-16 over the past seven weeks. Time to heat back up!

Tennessee (+8.5) at Georgia: The Volunteers are the best team in all of college football according to several different rankings systems, including my own. Even if they don’t win this game, this many points is terrific insurance. Pick: Tennessee.

Air Force vs. Army (O/U 40.5): I am in desperate need of a winning week, so I am going to go with one of the oldest tricks in the betting book. Whenever two service academies play each other, take the under. Air Force and Navy played earlier this season and the Falcons won 13-10. I am expecting something similar here. ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects 57 points in this game, which scares me a little. But his stats don’t account for a pair of triple-options going head to head. Air Force and Army also tend to play poorly away from home, and this game will be on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas. I will be rooting for lots of punts! Pick: Under.

Wake Forest (-4.5) at North Carolina State: The Wolfpack simply haven’t been the same team since they lost starting quarterback Devin Leary. NC State scored nine points without him against Syracuse and then 22 against a dreadful Virginia Tech team. We are getting Wake Forest at a good number here, because it is coming off a 48-21 loss to Louisville. I’m going to write that off as one bad game and buy low on the Demon Deacons. They started the season 6-1 and covered the spread in five of those games. They should have too much offense for NC State to keep up with on Saturday. Pick: Wake Forest.

Baylor +3.5 at Oklahoma: There’s a good chance the Bears win as road underdogs on Saturday. I will gladly take them with the points over a key number. Pick: Baylor.

Tulane (-7.5) at Tulsa: This game features a pair of teams on the opposite end of the ATS spectrum. The Green Wave, who are ranked 19th this week, have covered the spread in seven of their eight games. The Golden Hurricane have only covered the spread in two of their eight games. Tulane is coming off a bye week. Tulsa is dealing with a potential injury at quarterback. There are lots of reasons to like Kansas City native Willie Fritz and his team in this spot.

Last week: 2-3. Season record ATS: 22-22-1.

Other lines worth considering

Hawaii (+27) at Fresno State: The Rainbow Warriors have cashed as underdogs in four straight games, and they even won one of them outright. Fresno State is also playing well of late, but this a lot of points. And there is a chance this spread moves above 28 by Saturday.

James Madison (+7.5) at Louisville: If starting quarterback Todd Centeio is active for the Dukes, they can absolutely cover this spread in a sandwich game for the Cardinals.

Auburn (+13.5) at Mississippi State: Every team that has fired its coach this season has gone on to win at least one game with its interim. Charlotte kept the trend going last week at Rice. It’s not hard to see the trend continuing with Auburn.

Duke (-9.5) at Boston College: The Eagles have only covered the spread in one game all season. The Blue Devils are pretty good, and they are coming off a bye week.

California (+21) at USC: The Golden Bears stink on the road, and the Trojans should have no problem scoring against them. I just hope they play defense if they’re leading by 27 on the final drive this week.

Massachusetts (+15.5) at Connecticut: The Huskies have covered the spread in five straight games and are fighting for bowl eligibility. The Minutemen might be the worst team in all of college football.

BYU (+7.5) at Boise State: The Cougars have lost four straight games and haven’t covered the spread since early September. The Broncos have won and covered in four straight. You’ve got to like Boise State at home.