Best bets for college football bowl games, Part 2: Missouri vs. Wake Forest and more
Yuck.
That was my first reaction when I looked at this week’s upcoming slate of bowl games. If not for betting purposes, there are only one or two contests I would go out of my way to watch before the calendar flips to Dec. 28 and we get some better matchups.
Sometimes you stumble across the occasional game that is so bad it is actually good, but the following games are just plain bad: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green ... East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina ... Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Houston.
Santa Claus brought each of those bowl games coal for Christmas.
And I haven’t even mentioned the Guaranteed Rate bowl yet. I respect anyone who is willing to stay up late and watch Oklahoma State (without Spencer Sanders) play Wisconsin (without Graham Mertz or a head coach) inside a baseball stadium in Phoenix. But count me out!
Still, there are a few games that are worth tuning in for. And even the ugliest of games can offer juicy betting opportunities. So let’s dive in and try to find some winners.
Best Bets
My picks went 4-1 last week. Connecticut fought valiantly to deliver my first 5-0 record of the season, but the Huskies fell just short of a backdoor cover against Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Oh well. Let’s see if we can stay hot during the second week of bowl games.
South Alabama (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky (New Orleans Bowl): Backing the Sun Belt has been an extremely profitable venture so far this bowl season. The conference is 3-0 straight up and against the spread with Troy, Southern Mississippi and Marshall all winning their early bowl games. I see that trend continuing when South Alabama goes up against Western Kentucky in New Orleans. The Jaguars went 10-2 this season, and their losses came by one point at UCLA and by four points against Troy. They have a great defense and enter this game at nearly full strength. The Hilltoppers will have star quarterback Austin Reed for this game, but they are dealing with myriad transfers at other positions. Pick: South Alabama.
Air Force (+4) vs. Baylor (Armed Forces Bowl): There is no way I am betting against a service academy in a game called the Armed Forces Bowl. It would be un-American for Baylor to win this game. Sorry Bears. Beyond the military connection, Air Force should have an advantage here with its ground-and-pound offense. The Bears have struggled to stop the run this season, and preparing for the triple-option is a headache that Dave Aranda hasn’t yet faced at Baylor. I also wonder how motivated the Bears will be for this game. The under (43.5) might also be worth a look here, although I liked it more before the total dropped six points this week. Pick: Air Force.
Wake Forest (-1) vs. Missouri (Gasparilla Bowl): These are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Demon Deacons finished the regular season by losing four of their final five while the Tigers won four of their final six. That makes me want to lean Missouri in this matchup. But Wake Forest probably has a motivational edge in this game. Its coach, Dave Clawson, has spoken about how excited the team is to play against a SEC opponent. If Wake Forest can reset and get back to its early season form with Sam Hartman making big plays, this could be a difficult game for Mizzou. Pick: Wake Forest.
Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. Buffalo (Camellia Bowl): Go ahead and call me a Sun Belt stan. I am going back to the well for a fourth time this bowl season and backing one of their teams. Georgia Southern has an exciting offense under first-year coach Clay Helton. It also owns some nice wins over Nebraska and James Madison. That is a much stronger resume than Buffalo, which hasn’t beaten a team outside the MAC this year and needed a 23-22 win over Akron earlier this month just to get to six wins. Pick: Georgia Southern.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) vs. Wisconson (Guaranteed Rate Bowl): Mike Gundy has a strong track record in bowl games, but I don’t trust the Cowboys without Spencer Sanders at quarterback. That isn’t enough to back the Badgers here, though. Both of these teams have been rocked by transfers. This is an impossible game to predict, other than that is probably going to be ugly. So let’s make a play on the points total of 43.5. Oklahoma State’s final five games went under. None of Wisconsin’s final four games topped 39 total points. I will be rooting for punts and field goals in Phoenix. Pick: Under.
Best Bets Parlay: +2435 at BetMGM ... So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Last week: 4-1. Season record ATS: 37-32-1.
