Best bets for college football bowl games, Part 3: KU, K-State, the playoff and more

Bowl season is almost over, but it is going out with a bang.

We only have a few more opportunities to find some college football winners this season. Fortunately, there is an abundance of juicy matchups remaining on the schedule with at least three games being played every day between now and Jan. 2.

Here are the picks I like this week:

Kansas (+3) vs. Arkansas at the Liberty Bowl

The Liberty Bowl is not an easy to game to get pumped up for. It is played in a decaying stadium, there is usually cold weather in the forecast and Memphis isn’t exactly a must-visit destination on the bowl schedule. But I expect the Jayhawks to be highly motivated for their first bowl appearance in more than a decade.

Arkansas seems to be much less interested. Quarterback KJ Jefferson intends to play and return for another season, but many of his teammates have already left the roster. The Razorbacks will be without receiver Jadon Haselwood, center Ricky Stromberg, linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, plus several departing transfers. In addition, defensive coordinator Barry Odom has left to become the head coach at UNLV.

That means Lance Leipold, who went 2-1 in bowl games at Buffalo, will have a month to prepare his complicated offense for a bunch of Arkansas backups with a fully healthy Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal at the controls of the offense.

Arkansas will need to score a boatload of points to hold off the Jayhawks.

Both teams limped to the finish in the regular season, with Arkansas losing six of its final nine and KU falling in six of its final seven. This is an opportunity for one team the end the year on a high note.

KU is the more motivated team. KU is bringing its full roster to Memphis. And KU is getting points. Seems like a great spot to back the Jayhawks.

Alabama (-6.5) vs. Kansas State at the Sugar Bowl

This is a tricky spread to evaluate.

When it looked like Bryce Young and Will Anderson were going to skip this game, Alabama was only favored by a field goal and K-State seemed like the obvious team to back given the Crimson Tide’s history of sleep-walking through bowl games that weren’t part of the playoff.

But both of Alabama’s star players intend to play and now the spread is nearly a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide were favored by at least nine points in all 12 of their regular season games this season. Even when they went on the road to Tennessee and LSU, the oddsmakers expected them to win by multiple scores. So the Wildcats are getting tremendous respect here by keeping this spread under the key number of seven.

Unfortunately, I don’t have a strong lean either way on the Sugar Bowl. K-State should be the more motivated team, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Wildcats win this game outright. But Alabama is the more talented team and if the Crimson Tide find a way to treat this like a playoff game it also wouldn’t surprise me if they win by 20.

Best Bets

My picks went 3-2 last week. That gives me a strong record of 7-3 so far this bowl season. Let’s see if we can stay hot a little longer.

Texas (-3.5) vs. Washington (Alamo Bowl): I’m just going to come out and say it: The wrong team appears to be favored. If this were a regular-season game with both teams at full strength, I would be inclined to lay the points with Texas inside the friendly confines of the friendly confines of the Alamodome. But the Longhorns will take the field for this one without Bijan Robinson and several other key contributors who opted out of this game. Washington is more or less at full strength and seems motivated to play in a bowl. Texas only won eight games this year with the best running back in the country on its roster. I am eager to fade them without Robinson. The Horns seem ripe for an upset without him carrying the ball 20 times to keep Washington’s high-powered offense off the field. Pick: Washington.

TCU (+8) vs. Michigan (Fiesta Bowl): The Wolverines will probably win this game, because they have previous experience in the playoff and they went undefeated this season. But this line feels a tad inflated because of how good they looked during the second half against Ohio State. Take those 30 minutes away, and this spread is closer to a field goal. The Horned Frogs won 12 games during the regular season, and their only loss came in overtime against K-State in the Big 12 championship. There is no quit in this team. With Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston well-rested and healthy for this game, I like their chances to at least stay within one score and possibly deliver a backdoor cover if they fall behind early. Pick: TCU.

Clemson (-4.5) vs. Tennessee (Orange Bowl): I hate myself for going against the Volunteers after blindly backing them so many times this season. But this is no longer the profitable team that destroyed everyone in its path before getting humbled by Georgia. Star quarterback Hendon Hooker is out for the season with an injury, and Tennessee had much bigger dreams than the Orange Bowl just a few weeks ago. Clemson seems like the more motivated team here, and Cade Klubnik will have something to prove in his first college start. He might also be an upgrade compared to DJ Uiagalelei Pick: Clemson.

Oklahoma (+10) vs. Florida State (Cheez-It Bowl): It was a year to forget for the Sooners. They only won six games under new coach Brent Venables and they looked downright bad on more than a few Saturdays. But those ugly losses came without quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the lineup. Oklahoma didn’t lose a single game by more than a touchdown when he played. Several key OU players have opted out of this game, but Gabriel is expected to lead Oklahoma’s offense against Florida State. That is enough for me to back the Sooners when they are getting this many points. Pick: Oklahoma.

Kansas (+3) vs. Arkansas (Liberty Bowl): When picking between a pair of 6-6 teams, always go with the more motivated squad during bowl season. The over of 68.5 might also be worth a look here. Pick: Kansas.

Best Bets Parlay: +2471 at BetMGM ... So you’re telling me there’s a chance!

Last week: 3-2. Season record ATS: 40-34-1.

Other games worth considering

Tulane (+2) vs. USC (Cotton Bowl): The Green Wave went 11-2 against the spread this season. Fade them at your own risk against a Trojans team that might not have a healthy Caleb Williams and is unlikely to be motivated for this game. Pick: Tulane.

Texas Tech (over/under 71.5) vs. Ole Miss (Texas Bowl): Two fast-paced offenses will go head to head inside a dome in Houston. Sounds like a good recipe for an over. Pick: Over.

North Carolina (+14) vs. Oregon (Holiday Bowl): This seems like too many points for a bowl game between two high-scoring teams. Even if Oregon is in control of this game, the Tar Heels will have a chance at a backdoor cover late. Pick: North Carolina.

North Carolina State (+1.5) vs. Maryland (Duke’s Mayo Bowl): North Carolina State was robbed of its bowl game last season when UCLA backed out of the Holiday Bowl at the last possible moment. For that reason, it will be motivated for this game. And Maryland is dealing with some significant opt outs. Pick: NC State.