Best Bets for college football bowl games, Part 1: Troy, Fresno State, Florida and more

Some people like to say college football has too many bowls.

Not me.

When bowl season gets underway at 10:30 a.m. on Friday with Miami (Ohio) taking on UAB at the Bahamas Bowl, you better believe that game will be streaming live inside my house.

Meaningless exhibition? Save that talk for after the SEC loses its first bowl game of the year. All 42 bowls provide extra entertainment for avid college football fans ... and betting opportunities for those of us in the Sunflower State.

They help make Christmas the most wonderful time of the year.

Twelve bowl games are on the schedule between now and Dec. 20. With that in mind, here is a look at some of the best betting matchups. Check back in next week for Part 2!

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines for early bowl games:

Three things to consider during bowl season

Betting on bowl games is very different from betting on regular-season games.

In some ways it is much more difficult. This time of year, we are dealing with the transfer portal, interim coaches, opt-outs, unmotivated players and all sorts of other factors that can swing a game one way or the other.

Then again, you can also see some winners coming from a mile away. With a little research, you can differentiate between the two categories.

The three biggest things I consider before each bowl bet:

1. Motivation: The more motivated team is usually going to win (or at least cover the spread) this time of year. For example: USC might not care all that much about playing Tulane in the Cotton Bowl after spending all season dreaming of a Pac-12 championship and a trip to the playoff. But you better believe that game will feel like the Super Bowl to Willie Fritz and the Green Wave. This is also why betting against the SEC is usually a good idea right about now.

2. Who is missing? A team’s roster outlook goes far behind a simple injury report during bowl season. Make sure you know how many key players have opted out of the postseason, turned pro or entered the transfer portal. The last thing you want to do is bet on a team to cover a big spread and then find out its starting quarterback is on vacation in Cancun.

3. Who is coaching? Some interim coaches light a fire under their players and bring out the best of their roster. Some interim coaches do the opposite. Make sure you are backing a stud instead of a dud.

Best Bets

I finished the regular season with a winning record. Hooray for small victories! Let’s see if we can go out with a bang during bowl season.

Troy (-2) vs. UTSA (Cure Bowl): This is a bowl game you should go out of your way to watch. It is a rare postseason matchup between conference champions. Troy won the Sun Belt. UTSA won Conference USA. Both teams are 11-2. Snicker all you want about the bad bowl games. Some of them are nearly unwatchable. But both these teams are ranked in the top 25. This should be a really good game between a pair of teams that play contrasting styles. The Road Runners win with offense. The Trojans win with defense. Betting on both of these teams was a profitable decision during the regular season, so it feels strange fading one of them here. But I like Troy at anything under a field goal. The Trojans have won 10 straight since losing on a Hail Mary at Appalachian State way back in September. The Sun Belt is also a little stronger than C-USA. Pick: Troy.

Connecticut (+10.5) vs. Marshall (Myrtle Beach Bowl): This pick stems mostly from motivation. Jim Mora has led the Huskies to their first bowl game in seven years. I imagine UConn players will be fired up to build on that and finish out the season with a win in warm weather. The Huskies also went 9-3 against the spread this season with outright wins over Florida State, Boston College and Liberty. Marshall is the better team, but beating UConn by double digits won’t be easy. Pick: UConn.

Fresno State (-3) vs. Washington State (Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl): The Bulldogs have been on fire since Jake Haener returned as QB1 midway through the season. Fresno State finished the regular season with eight straight wins and a Mountain West championship. It should be motivated to validate that success by beating a Pac-12 team. The Cougars ended the season on a sour note and surrendered 703 yards against rival Washington. It won’t be easy for them to slow down Fresno State. Nor will it be easy for them to keep up with them, as several key players on offense have entered the transfer portal. Both of Washington State’s coordinators also recently accepted other jobs. All signs point to Fresno State here. Pick: Fresno State.

Rice (+6.5) vs. Southern Mississippi (Lending Tree Bowl): Let’s not overthink this one. Rice went 5-7 this season and was only invited to a bowl because of its Academic Progress Rate. Southern Mississippi won six games, including a road contest at Tulane, and covered the spread nine times this year. Pick: Southern Miss.

Florida (+10) vs. Oregon State (Las Vegas Bowl): This game is a perfect example of why betting changes for bowl games. The Gators would have been an obvious pick to cover this number a month ago. But they are now without quarterback Anthony Richardson and standout offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence, who are both off to the NFL. Plenty of transfers are also on the way out. Oregon State, meanwhile, is close to full strength after winning six of its final seven games. Beating Florida also seems like it would mean more to Oregon State than the other way around. Pick: Oregon State.

Best Bets Parlay: +2383 at BetMGM ... So you’re telling me there’s a chance!

Last week: 2-3. Season record ATS: 33-31-1.

Other games worth considering

North Texas (+10.5) vs. Boise State (Frisco Bowl): The Broncos finished second in the Mountain West. North Texas recently fired its coach. Motivation is hard to predict here. But if Boise State comes to play, it could easily win big. Pick: Boise State.

Eastern Michigan (+3.5) vs. San Jose State (Famous Idaho Potatoes Bowl): The Spartans haven’t covered a spread since early October. Eastern Michigan covered the spread in four of its last five games. Pick: EMU.