Who can beat the favorite in Kentucky Derby 2024? These are four horses to bet on

Is Saturday's 150th running of the Kentucky Derby really a two-horse race?

Talk to trainers on the backside at Churchill Downs and you’ll likely hear all about Fierceness and Sierra Leone — the Nos. 1 and 2 betting choices in the morning line.

“On his best day, (Fierceness) is in a league of his own,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said. “Sierra Leone is a very good horse, too. Different running style. Those two horses are the standouts. After that, basically, it becomes wide open.”

Post-time favorites have fared well since the current points system used to determine Kentucky Derby qualifiers started in 2013. They’ve landed in the superfecta payout all 11 years — six wins, two seconds, one third and two fourths.

But if you’re looking for options beyond Fierceness and Sierra Leone to fill out exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers, we have you covered.

Here are four horses who can beat the favorites:

Just a Touch

Not long ago, a Kentucky Derby runner who was unraced as a 2-year-old and had just three career races under his belt would have been an instant toss. But starting with Justify breaking the “Curse of Apollo” in 2018, times have changed.

Just a Touch, son of the 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, didn’t get his racing start until Jan. 27 and has finished as the runner-up in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

So, why is he a Derby contender?

“He’s very, very talented,” trainer Brad Cox said. “We’ve liked him pretty much since he came in last November. … He took a step forward in the Gotham, and I thought he took a step forward in the Blue Grass. But I do think there’s another move forward. He’ll need another move forward to be in the top one, two or three in the Derby.”

Fans of Beyer speed figures will like this progression over his three races: 89, 90 and 96.

Forever Young

This is another horse who must buck Kentucky Derby trends to win. UAE Derby winners are 0 for 19 all time in the race, and Japan-breds are 0 for 4 since 2019.

But many believe Forever Young — 5 for 5 in his career — is the best horse from Japan to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

At 10-1 odds, Forever Young is the co-fourth choice — with Just a Touch — in the morning line.

“He’s a very unique horse,” jockey Ryusei Sakai said. “Up to this point, he’s never been beaten. Ever since he won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in December in Kawasaki, they’ve been focused on coming here to the Kentucky Derby. … Between that and his experiences this year and the horse’s talent, we’re pretty hopeful.”

One concern: Forever Young hasn’t faced much kickback in his previous races and likely will have to deal with that in the Derby.

Catching Freedom

Cox’s other contender has a deeper resume than Just a Touch, sporting a 3-0-1 record in five career starts. He rallied from last place to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in his last start.

“If we get that effort out of him Derby Day, he’s going to be very good,” Cox said.

Catching Freedom is the third choice in the morning line at 8-1 odds but has been overshadowed by Fierceness and Sierra Leone, who won their final prep races after Catching Freedom did.

Cox said there’s “zero doubt” Fierceness and Sierra Leone deserve to be favorites but noted there could be some recency bias involved.

“I do believe every year — whether it’s Oaks or Derby — that the horses from Fair Grounds get overlooked because the (prep) races were six weeks prior, as opposed to the Blue Grass being four weeks before or the Arkansas Derby five weeks before,” Cox said. “I think what happens more recently is definitely what people gravitate toward and the horses from Fair Grounds get lost a little bit.”

Honor Marie

At 20-1 odds, Honor Marie has become this year’s “wise guy horse,” the one that contrarians are touting.

He was the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, a length behind Catching Freedom, and is expected to relish the longer 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.

“You know he’s going to stay the trip, which is a question mark on a lot of the others,” jockey Ben Curtis said, noting Honor Marie has two victories at Churchill Downs. “He has course form. He looks a million dollars. … He’s such a strong closer. With the long stretch here, it’s going to suit him down to the ground.”

Watch out for the rain with Honor Marie. The two worst finishes of his career both came on sloppy tracks.

More horse racing: Your Kentucky Derby 2024 pick is likely wrong. Here's why each horse can or can't win

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Honor Marie, 3 horses who can beat Fierceness in Kentucky Derby 2024