Backs against wall bracketology for Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers

Within 24 hours this past weekend, the University of Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier Musketeers dropped critical basketball games that could have enhanced their NCAA tournament resumés.

Both are under. 500 in their respective demanding leagues with their backs against the wall. The leprechaun lurks on St. Patrick's Day as Selection Sunday takes place March 17.

Here's a look at the luck both schools will need to hear their name called on CBS in less than three weeks.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Coming off their third Quad 1 win Feb. 17 at UCF, coach Wes Miller's Bearcats were in a position to enhance their position with a home game against Oklahoma State, a team lurking near the bottom of the Big 12 standings. However, taking a Big 12 team lightly is unwise as BYU found out when the Cowboys defeated them 93-83 in Stillwater before playing the Bearcats.

Riding that high, Oklahoma State came to Fifth Third Arena and dealt UC a costly loss, 80-76. That left the Bearcats with the unenviable Texas two-step road trip of TCU and No. 1 Houston back-to-back. As they had in every Big 12 game, UC was close against the Horned Frogs, but Jamie Dixon's squad hit an extra gear and pulled away to beat the Bearcats by 18, 75-57. It was the first double-digit Big 12 defeat for the Bearcats.

That left UC with a four-hour bus ride to Houston and a date with the top team in the country Tuesday night. Win and the Bearcats are like Randolph and Mortimer in "Coming to America". Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have not lost at home this season. Should that streak continue, the Bearcats would go into the final three games with just one Quad 1 opportunity (at Oklahoma) and a best-case Big 12 record of 8-13.

Best way in?

All-access passes are available for the March 12-16 Big 12 basketball tournament in Kansas City. The eternal optimists can have the same seats from now through 2031. If the season would end right now, UC would play on the opening day and need to win five consecutive games, something they didn't do in the league during the season.

If that were to hold, with UC a No. 11 seed, they would play West Virginia, then need to get through Texas Tech to play Iowa State or Kansas likely. The upside is they could avoid Houston with that seed. The downside of improving to a No. 9 seed would be a path that would include a third game with the Cougars.

What bracketologists say

In Joe Lunardi's ESPN tabulations Monday, the Bearcats were bumped from "next four out" to the category just on the outside with upcoming opponent Kansas State replacing them. Lunardi has the Big 12 sending nine to "The Dance". Jerry Palm of CBS only has eight Big 12 teams and now has Texas as a "bubble" team, but not UC. Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports has nine Big 12 teams in with UC as a "next four out" team along with Kansas State.

Road to reality

At Houston: Anything can happen in the Big 12 but Houston has won 10 straight in this series and they're 15-0 in the Fertitta Center.

Kansas State: The Bearcats are chasing the Wildcats in the standings. Kansas State defeated ranked teams Kansas and BYU in February. It's a must-win for both.

At Oklahoma: UC was in reach of the Sooners at Fifth Third Arena, but you've heard that before. The Sooners have only lost to Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas at home. Barring a crazy Big 12 tournament run, again a must-win.

West Virginia: It's Senior Night with few excuses for a loss.

Projection

UC needs shots to fall rather than shooting their own foot. The bare minimum would seem to be an 18-win season and at least two wins in Kansas City. Miller doesn't care for the early projections but understands the allure.

"People are talking about the NCAA tournament around Christmas time," Miller said. "I get the entertainment value and the interest in our game but you don't get out of the NCAA tournament this time of year, you don't make the NCAA tournament this time of year. When you play in the Big 12, every night's an opportunity. I think it's very dangerous to be consumed with that as a team. We just got to keep taking it one day at a time. We need some good things to happen to get our team back on track."

Xavier Musketeers

Less than three weeks ago, Xavier outlasted Villanova, 56-53, in a classic Big East rock fight at Cintas Center. The victory pulled Xavier to two games over .500 (7-5) in Big East play for the first time all season and placed the Musketeers firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. However, Xavier couldn't seize any momentum from beating the Wildcats, losing four straight after Sunday's 24-point road loss to No. 7 Marquette.

Xavier hasn't been able to take advantage of the plethora of quality wins presented by the No. 6 hardest schedule in the nation, per KenPom. After beating Villanova, Xavier had a trio of all-important Quadrant 1 opportunities over the next 18 days and came up short in all three.

Xavier holds just a 2-10 record in Quadrant 1 contests this season. Xavier has a nice 5-2 record in Quadrant 2 affairs, but a pair of Quadrant 3 losses in the non-conference (Delaware, Oakland) loom large on an unimpressive March Madness resume.

Best way in?

From Willis Reed's inspirational entrance in the 1970 NBA Finals to Reggie Miller's eight points in nine seconds, there have been plenty of legendary performances at the "Mecca" of Madison Square Garden. In the Big East Tournament just three years ago, the No. 8 seed Georgetown Hoyas stunned the college basketball world with an unlikely run to a title.

It would take another herculean, underdog effort by Xavier to make the NCAA Tournament. With four regular season games remaining, Xavier is two games back of Providence for the No. 5 spot in the conference and the first-round bye in the Big East Tournament that comes with having a top-5 seed. With three rivals (Providence, St. John's, Villanova) it would have to jump, it's likely Xavier will be playing in the first round at MSG on Wednesday, March 13, and would need an unlikely four-game run to go dancing.

As of Tuesday, Xavier would be in the No. 8/9 matchup in the first round of the Big East Tournament and would face Butler at MSG on Wednesday, March 13 at 4 p.m. The downside is the winner of that matchup would get No. 1 UConn in Thursday's second-round opener.

What bracketologists say

The aforementioned win over Villanova Feb. 7 brought Xavier to Lunardi's "next four out" category. They quickly left the conversation following a hard-fought 78-71 loss to Creighton and haven't returned after dropping three more.

In Monday's update, Lunardi has five Big East clubs getting a March Madness bid. Lunardi has Seton Hall and Providence as two of his "last four in" right now and Villanova as one of its "first four out." On the CBS side, Palm has Seton Hall and Providence as part of his "first four out" with only the top-3 Big East clubs grabbing a bracket spot.

Road to reality

If Xavier's going to play in the first round of the Big East Tournament, its best path is to get to at least the No. 6 seed. That would give the Musketeers a first-round matchup with DePaul and comes with the added benefit of avoiding No. 3 UConn and No. 5 Marquette in the second round.

In a perfect world, Xavier could climb to No. 5, get a first-round bye, and avoid UConn, Marquette and No. 12 Creighton (a trio they are 0-5 against this season) in the second round. Instead, Xavier would face Seton Hall, a team they beat by 20 before Christmas, for a spot in the semifinals. To get there, Xavier would need some help.

Strength of schedule hasn't been on Xavier's side this year, but the Musketeers do have a favorable stretch to end the regular season, starting with three straight games against the bottom three teams in the Big East (vs. DePaul, at Georgetown, at Butler), unfortunately the Musketeers are just 3-8 away from Cintas Center this season and two of those tilt are on the road. Of the three teams Xavier has to jump for No. 5, only St. John's has matchups with DePaul and Georgetown on the docket. Villanova has tough road bouts against Providence and Seton Hall before hosting Creighton. Providence bookends its final four-game stretch at No. 5 Marquette and home against No. 3 UConn.

Xavier can only worry about what's in front of them, though. The Muskies need to win all four ahead of their trip to Manhattan.

The final four games (KenPom's score/Xavier's chance of winning)

vs. DePaul: Xavier 86, DePaul 65 (97%)

at Georgetown: Xavier 82, Georgetown 74 (77%)

at Butler: Butler 78, Xavier 76 (41%)

vs. Marquette: Marquette 78, Xavier 75 (39%)

Projection

"We're 7-9 in our league with four left. We've gotta try to make that number 8-9 (vs. DePaul, Wednesday)," Xavier head coach Sean Miller said behind the microphone in Milwaukee on Sunday.

Miller is trying his best to block out the March Madness noise for a young, inexperienced team. Xavier is just trying to rally from its first four-game losing streak since the final month of the Travis Steele era. The Musketeers, per KenPom, are projected to finish 16-15 and 10-10 in the Big East. With Xavier's inconsistency, it's hard to fathom a four-day Cinderella story at MSG next month, leaving the Musketeers in the NIT conversation at season's end.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers chances to make March Madness