Back in the fall, we tried to predict the SEC basketball season. How’d that work out?

When Southeastern Conference men’s basketball media members gathered in the Birmingham area back in October, there were a few things regarding the upcoming SEC season that seemed pretty clear.

1) Kentucky was clearly the team to beat.

2) Arkansas and Tennessee were clearly next in line.

3) Oscar Tshiebwe was clearly the SEC player of the year.

4) The league was about as strong as ever, with five teams in the AP Top 25 and another at 26th in the overall voting.

Fast forward to the final weekend of the regular season, and what a wacky ride it’s been.

Neither UK nor Arkansas nor Tennessee won the conference. Nor did any of those teams finish in the top two. While Tshiebwe had another impressive season, it wasn’t quite at the level of his national player of the year showing from the previous year. And though the SEC as a whole still looks pretty strong — eight teams from the league have a good shot to make the NCAA Tournament field — the circumstances around many of the top programs have opened the door to the unexpected.

With the SEC Tournament coming up and Selection Sunday just a week away, here’s a look back at what we thought we knew about the league in the fall, and how those perceptions changed over the course of the season.

SEC order of finish

Before SEC media day in October, “a select panel” of league and national media members were tasked with predicting the final order of finish in the conference.

My picks: 1) Kentucky, 2) Tennessee, 3) Arkansas, 4) Auburn, 5) Texas A&M, 6) Alabama, 7) Florida, 8) LSU, 9) Missouri, 10) Ole Miss, 11) Mississippi State, 12) South Carolina, 13) Vanderbilt, 14) Georgia.

Overall preseason voting: 1) Kentucky, 2) Arkansas, 3) Tennessee, 4) Auburn, 5) Alabama, 6) Texas A&M, 7) Florida, 8) LSU, 9) Ole Miss, 10) Mississippi State, 11) Missouri, 12) Vanderbilt, 13) Georgia, 14) South Carolina.

Not much difference there.

The only teams on my ballot that were more than one spot removed from the overall voting were Missouri, which I had ninth and the official list had at 11th; and South Carolina, which I had 12th and the official list had at 14th and last.

Missouri exceeded all expectations in its first year under Coach Dennis Gates, entering the final game of the season in a tie for fifth, with South Carolina finishing about as expected — a tie for 12th going into the last game.

There were some big misses here for everyone. The biggest came at the top of the standings.

Alabama won the SEC. The Tide were well-regarded going into the season — No. 20 in the AP poll — but the consensus had UK, Arkansas and Tennessee well ahead of Bama.

Personally, while I liked the games of McDonald’s All-American freshmen Jaden Bradley and Brandon Miller, I didn’t think either would be the kind of instant-impact recruit that would immediately be a team-changer in the college game. I also thought other teams — especially those top three in the voting — had better, more-balanced rosters. Oops.

Texas A&M was expected to be good — 26th in the preseason AP voting; I had them fifth on my preseason SEC ballot — but the Aggies have exceeded those expectations, finishing second in the league. And they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years.

Other outliers from preseason to now:

▪ Arkansas started the season at No. 10 in the AP voting and No. 2 in SEC media voting, but the Razorbacks entered the final day of the regular season with an 8-9 league record and tied for eighth in the league. The Hogs lost potential breakout player Trevon Brazile to a season-ending injury in December, and star freshman Nick Smith Jr. has also been sidelined.

▪ Kentucky also didn’t live up to top billing in the league. The Cats have had injury issues, too, but — even at full strength for the entire season — it appears they would have had a tough time getting to Alabama’s level on the court.

▪ Vanderbilt was one of the SEC’s biggest surprises. Picked near the bottom of the league, the Commodores won double-digit conference games, entering the final weekend in a tie for fifth in the standings. It would have been interesting to see what Vandy could have done if star player Liam Robbins had been healthy all season.

▪ LSU was a disappointment. The Tigers, in their first season under former Murray State coach Matt McMahon, were eighth in the preseason vote but finished last in the league.

▪ With Selection Sunday set for next weekend, Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri appear to be pretty safely in the NCAA field, with Auburn and Mississippi State also projected to make the tournament.

The Alabama situation

Obviously, the tragic recent events at Alabama have led to (warranted) criticism of the program and its handling of the situation at all levels. A 23-year-old woman, Jamea Harris, was killed in January near campus.

A member of the Alabama basketball team, Darius Miles, has been charged with capital murder. Miller, the team’s star player, and Bradley were at the scene, according to police. And though they appear unlikely to be charged with any crime related to the case, the school’s decision to allow both starters — especially Miller, who brought the alleged murder weapon to the scene, according to court testimony — to keep playing under these circumstances has been met with fierce criticism.

Coach Nate Oats’ public remarks throughout the past few weeks have also been a failure.

These off-the-court issues must be part of any conversation regarding Alabama’s season, and they will continue to cast a cloud over the Crimson Tide.

SEC’s best players

With Oscar Tshiebwe’s status as the first consensus national player to return to college in more than a decade, it was a no-brainer to select the Kentucky star as the SEC preseason player of the year. (And we did.)

Media members who participated in the poll were tasked with picking a five-player All-SEC preseason team, in addition to the player of the year selection.

My picks: Tshiebwe, Colin Castleton (Florida), Nick Smith Jr. (Arkansas), Santiago Vescovi (Tennessee) and KJ Williams (LSU).

Overall preseason voting: Tshiebwe, Colin Castleton (Florida), Nick Smith Jr. (Arkansas), Santiago Vescovi (Tennessee) and Sahvir Wheeler (Kentucky).

So the only difference there was me picking Williams instead of Wheeler. As the league’s two-time reigning assists leader, it was easy to place Wheeler on the first team, but I figured newcomer Cason Wallace would cut into the senior guard’s overall stats and usage. That turned out to be true, though Wallace didn’t take over the starting point guard role until Wheeler was sidelined with an injury. And Wheeler was leading the league in assists per game — for a third consecutive season — before an ankle injury sidelined him for several games and knocked him out of statistical contention for that honor.

Williams was as good as I expected him to be (though his team was not), averaging 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds while shooting 42.5 percent from three-point range going into the final weekend.

I thought Castleton (a top returning player), Smith (the nation’s No. 1 recruit) and Tshiebwe (duh) were easy picks. I wanted to pick a player from Tennessee (the No. 2 team on my preseason ballot) and settled on Vescovi, the most-established Volunteer on an extremely balanced roster. (Zakai Zeigler nearly got my vote instead.) The final vote went to Williams, a versatile transfer from Murray State who was following his former coach to LSU.

The others I considered for that last spot were Zeigler and Auburn’s Johni Broome.

The SEC also released a preseason second-team that consisted of Williams, Tennessee’s Josiah-Jordan James and Zeigler, and Alabama’s Brandon Miller and Jahvon Quinerly.

Of the first-teamers, Tshiebwe and Castleton lived up to their preseason accolades. Smith’s nearly two-month absence from the court amid knee issues limited his impact. Vescovi was the leading scorer on a Tennessee team that turned out to be just as balanced as predicted. Wheeler played just half the league schedule due to his injury issues.

SEC player of the year?

Who ended up as the top player in the SEC? That award will be announced soon, and it’s likely a two-player race between Brandon Miller and Oscar Tshiebwe.

Miller led the league in scoring, stayed near the top of the list in rebounding, and was the SEC’s most-prolific three-point shooter. He’s also considered the top NBA Draft prospect among all college basketball players.

Tshiebwe’s numbers took a bit of a dip, his defensive skills were criticized — and UK didn’t live up to best-in-the-SEC expectations — but he was still objectively great, finishing in the top five in scoring and field-goal percentage while again leading the SEC in rebounding by a large margin. He also led the nation in rebounds per game going into the final weekend of the regular season.

Under normal circumstances, Miller — the best player on the league’s best team — would almost certainly win the SEC player of the year award. But Miller’s off-the-court issues could impact his consideration for such individual honors. An example of that came last week, when Miller averaged 32.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game in wins over South Carolina and Arkansas — hitting the game-winner against the Gamecocks — but wasn’t chosen as the SEC player of the week or the SEC freshman of the week. Those honors went to Tshiebwe and Nick Smith Jr., respectively, and Miller’s omission was probably no coincidence.

Tshiebwe also has a solid case to be the repeat winner on his own merits. His overall numbers are league-best worthy, and the Torvik ratings actually rate Tshiebwe at No. 3 in the country in the player of the year race (behind only Purdue’s Zach Edey and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis). Miller is No. 8 on that list nationally and second in the SEC. KenPom player of the year ratings have Miller at No. 5 nationally and tops in the conference.

Tshiebwe will certainly be an All-SEC first-team selection. The voters will decide what to do with Miller. The rest of the All-SEC team will be interesting. There aren’t many clear-cut answers.

Santiago Vescovi’s all-around game for one of the league’s top teams makes him a contender, though Tennessee teammate Zakai Zeigler was leading the league in assists and top five in steals before suffering a torn ACL on Wednesday night.

Florida’s Colin Castleton was top five in scoring, top 10 in rebounding, and leading the SEC in blocked shots before he suffered a likely season-ending injury last month.

Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV is the best player on the league’s No. 2 team, top five in the SEC in both points and assists.

The Torvik ratings for the full season have Missouri’s Kobe Brown as the No. 3 player in the league — behind Tshiebwe and Miller — and he’s been solid for the Tigers. As has D’Moi Hodge, who leads the SEC in steals and has been one of the league’s best three-point shooters.

Auburn’s Johni Broome is top five in blocked shots, just outside the top 10 in scoring and has spent much of the season at No. 2 in league rebounding behind Tshiebwe. He’s No. 3 in the Torvik player ratings for the conference-only portion of the schedule.

LSU’s KJ Williams is second in the league in points per game and top 10 in rebounds.

And Vanderbilt star Liam Robbins’ overall stats and impact are worthy of consideration, though he missed about a third of the conference schedule. (He’s going to lead the league in total blocked shots anyway.)

SEC awards are expected to be revealed in the lead-up to the league tournament.

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