Austin's light-rail planners reveal updated cost estimate, completion time

Editors note: This article was changed after its initial publication to include additional context around the light-rail system’s cost estimate in 2033 dollars.

Nearly a year after scaling down its initial plans due to ballooning cost estimates, Austin's light-rail planning agency on Friday unveiled a revised planning and construction schedule for the nearly 10-mile line anticipated to reshape the city's transit map.

The Austin Transit Partnership plans for construction to begin in 2027 and last about five years, completing in 2033, according to the timeline. The 9.8-mile line will stretch north, south and east of downtown Austin, but fall short of the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Crestview Station, where it would connect to Capital Metro's Red Line commuter rail service.

Th agency presented a cost estimate, $7.1 billion, for the system that officials say accounts for a projected rise in construction costs and inflation by the time construction concludes in 2033. According to the downsized plan approved last summer, the light-rail system was projected to cost between $4.5 billion and $4.8 billion in 2022 dollars.

"We're looking at 2033 when we're going to have trains running through the streets of Austin, Texas, after years and years of talking about it," said Greg Canally, Austin Transit Partnership's executive director, in an interview. "After failed attempts back 20 years ago, it's happening, and I think that's really important for everyone to see that Austin light rail is on a pathway to happening here."

The $7.1 billion estimate, first publicized Friday, is in future 2033 dollars and does not represent the project going over budget, Canally said. Conducting such an estimate in future dollars is a requirement of the Federal Transit Administration, from which the light-rail planning agency hopes to receive at least a 50% match in grant funding.

The Austin Transit Partnership has known the $7.1 billion estimate since at least September, according to paperwork the agency submitted last fall to the federal transit agency to qualify for federal grants and published on its website Friday. Until now, the light-rail planning agency had broadly shared its $4.5 billion and $4.8 billion estimate in 2022 dollars.

Of the estimated $7.1 billion, about $3.19 billion would go toward the construction and engineering of the light-rail system, representing the largest chunk of funding, according to a budget breakdown provided Friday. The rest of the funds would go toward professional services, $1.86 billion; the East Austin maintenance facility and vehicles, $1.11 billion; and real estate, $937 million.

Financing plan remains under legal scrutiny

The announcement comes as the city's plan to finance the light-rail system is in question.

In late May, a Travis County judge will hear arguments in a pending bond validation lawsuit filed by attorneys representing the Austin Transit Partnership, including arguments asking the judge to reject the city's plans by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has cast the plan as unconstitutional and says neither the city nor the light-rail planning agency can issue bonds.

The Texas attorney general has the authority to sign off on bonds. Canally said filing the bond validation lawsuit, which seeks to confirm the validity of bonds issued by a government entity by putting it to a judge, was meant to expedite the process and put the issue before an impartial court rather than Paxton.

The implications for Project Connect should the judge side with Paxton in the pending bond validation lawsuit are unclear. Canally declined to say whether the light-rail planning agency has considered alternatives in the event a judge rejects its proposed finance model, instead reiterating his confidence in the agency's legal footing.

The light-rail system is the centerpiece of Project Connect, the multibillion-dollar public transportation investment voters approved by a 15-percentage-point margin in 2020. The investment also includes new high-frequency bus routes, improvements to existing commuter rail services and more. With voter approval, the city raised the ad valorem property tax rate by 8.75 cents — an increase of more than 20% — to fund the investment.

Supporters of Project Connect say the legal challenges by critics are attempts to subvert the will of voters and undo efforts to expand public transportation. Opponents say the finance model is ill-conceived and too costly, especially considering how the initial plan was scaled back last summer — changes they say should go before voters again.

Last year, Project Connect was the target of state lawmakers and a lawsuit alleging, in part, that voters were misled. The proposed legislation did not pass during the session. The lawsuit, filed by attorney Bill Aleshire, a former Travis County judge and tax assessor/collector and critic of the investment, was consolidated with Austin Transit Partnership's bond validation lawsuit.

In a statement Friday, citing the scaled-back plans approved last summer, Aleshire said the new planning schedule and adjusted cost estimates were "further proof that Austin voters were conned."

The previous light-rail planning schedule from Austin Transit Partnership included a timeline for proposed Orange and Blue light-rail lines, parts of which were scrapped or pieced together to form the one 9.8-mile line approved last summer.

Previously unreleased information begins to be made public as lawsuit progresses

Aleshire also questioned the timing of the Austin Transit Partnership's publication of certain documents on its website on Friday, which coincided with a deadline to provide similar documents as part of the discovery process in the pending lawsuit. "I’m very proud to be forcing ATP to be more transparent, even if it has to be done in litigation," he said in a statement.

The Austin Transit Partnership had declined to provide one of the documents, a package sent to the FTA last fall seeking status as a possible recipient of federal funds, to the Statesman in response to an open records request. The light-rail planning agency published the document online Friday.

Current light-rail plans rely on the new property tax and at least a 50% match in grant funding from the Federal Transit Administration. Earlier this month, in seeking the matching federal funds, the Austin Transit Partnership sent a letter requesting a move to the next stage in the federal transit agency's process. In addition, an environmental impact study of the 9.8-mile line is underway, likely to take about a year and a half to complete.

Austin Transit Partnership officials expect the FTA to finalize the funding amount in 2026, Canally said.

Canally spoke with local media Friday in anticipation of a public Wednesday workshop, where the Austin Transit Partnership board of directors will discuss the new timeline, cost estimates and other elements of the plan.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: ATP has new light-rail timeline nearly a year after scaling back plans