ATP betting, odds: Three spots Jannik Sinner could break out on tour this season

Italian star Jannik Sinner is off to a great 2023 season. Prior to his current run at ATP Rotterdam, Sinner is 8-2 on the year, including a win in France at ATP 250 Montpellier, an indoor hardcourt event. Ranked 14th in the world, this could be the 21-year-old's breakout year.

I took notice when I decided to fade Sinner in Montpellier, and, of course, was proven wrong, multiple times. One aspect of being a sports bettor is realizing when old data is not correlating to current form. In other words, the market has not caught up with Sinner’s potential. There is a break in the trend, and I am now looking at future spots to potentially capitalize.

Let’s start with why. For one, Sinner had a coaching change in 2022. He brought in Darren Cahill to assist with his progression. Cahill was previously Simona Halep’s coach and has been a commentator whom colleague Brad Gilbert calls “Killer.” Cahill’s strength as a coach is working with players who need to essentially settle down. I think of it as a horse that needs to be wrangled or tamed. Cahill teaches composure and when to bring out the aggressiveness and knowing when to pull it back. On a macro level, he teaches players how to win a match, not just a point.

Adding Cahill to his team in July 2022 made an immediate impact with Sinner. He excelled at the U.S. Open in August, nearly upsetting eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set quarterfinal thriller. That was after giving the best grass court player, Novak Djokovic, a run for his money in the Wimbledon quarterfinal two months earlier, winning the first two sets before losing the match in five.

Three ATP 1000 tournaments Sinner can win

Starting the year healthy, Sinner looks like he could reach his full potential. Sinner is primed to score his first ATP Masters 1000 title.

These are the three events I’m looking to wager on Sinner to potentially win: two hardcourt tournaments in the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells in early March and the Miami Open in late March, and a clay-court tournament, ATP Madrid. The slow to medium hardcourt season works well with Sinner’s power. With one clay title under his belt, Madrid plays faster because it’s at higher elevation, which works to his game because he hits so big. As a player who has historically done well on both hard and clay-court surfaces, it just adds to the volume of events in which he can win.

Not to mention that Sinner does well on grass. He is the only player to push Djokovic to five sets at Wimbledon since Roger Federer in the 2019 Finals.

Now let’s talk about his game. Sinner has a strong baseline game, and having patience is what has been most impactful. Before Cahill, Sinner had a tendency to be too aggressive, forcing incorrect shot selection and pulling the trigger too quickly. Now, we’ve seen his game evolving, and he's taking the time to craft a point to put himself in complete control. Sinner most certainly has the weapons to win bigger events.

Is he ready to win a major? The French Open is loaded with the King of Clay in Rafael Nadal, the best returner in Djokovic, and now, of course, Alcaraz. Djokovic is the King of Grass at Wimbledon. If there was an opportunity, the U.S. Open could be it. That's a discussion for further down the road. Until then, keep an eye out for Sinner to have himself a year in the ATP 1000 circuit.